China IRBM/SRBM (and non-ICBM/SLBM) thread

[manqiangrexue]

It isn't technically implausible to place wheels or tracks under such a target to make it mobile . . .

However, once you consider the sheer size of these targets, railroad tracks inevitably make for the most cost effective and sensible path forward if the goal is to practice against something that isn't stationary.

I constantly wonder why don't they use drone-based laser-projected targets. They can be as large or as small as they want, move in any direction as fast as they want, and are free to hit and regenerate. If they're practicing satellite-guided targetting, it seems to be the perfect solution, but not for radar-guided targetting since they wouldn't have an RCS.

 

[Wrought]

I constantly wonder why don't they use drone-based laser-projected targets. They can be as large or as small as they want, move in any direction as fast as they want, and are free to hit and regenerate. If they're practicing satellite-guided targetting, it seems to be the perfect solution, but not for radar-guided targetting since they wouldn't have an RCS.

Also for electro-optical seekers.

 

[lin]

东风-27算中程弹道导弹还是洲际弹道导弹？经常被引用的东风-27射程在5000-8000公里之间。

按西方分类，洲际弹道导弹射程超过5500公里；按中国分类，洲际弹道导弹射程超过8000公里。

算是准洲际导弹，通过弹头载荷的变化和弹道的选择实现不同的射程。可以装载核弹头或者高性能的常规弹头。

 

[bsdnf]

I constantly wonder why don't they use drone-based laser-projected targets. They can be as large or as small as they want, move in any direction as fast as they want, and are free to hit and regenerate. If they're practicing satellite-guided targetting, it seems to be the perfect solution, but not for radar-guided targetting since they wouldn't have an RCS.

not just for the hit test, also includes damage assessment, terminal guidance anti-jamming and other test. Images alone are not enough.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I'm looking at DOD 2024 report, which says PLARF has 40 total brigades with each brigade having 24-40 launchers. Isn't that too low per brigade?

A brigade is usually 5000 personnel. Even if the personnel count is low for a rocket force brigade to say 2500 people, its still 2500 supporting just 30-40 launchers. Seems extremely inefficient to have so many people but so few launchers. According to DOD, PLARF has 120K personnel but just 1000 launchers in total. Which again seems extremely low.

 

[dirtyid]

I'm looking at DOD 2024 report, which says PLARF has 40 total brigades with each brigade having 24-40 launchers. Isn't that too low per brigade?

A brigade is usually 5000 personnel. Even if the personnel count is low for a rocket force brigade to say 2500 people, its still 2500 supporting just 30-40 launchers. Seems extremely inefficient to have so many people but so few launchers. According to DOD, PLARF has 120K personnel but just 1000 launchers in total. Which again seems extremely low.

If we're very generous, 1:10 tooth to tail ratio T3R (closer to airforce) -> 500 or 12-20 crew per TEL. 1:5 T3R (closer to navy) -> 1000 or 24-40 crew per TEL. 80-90% support staff. Probably fair estimate for nuclear forces, multiple shifts for full 24/7 rotation. Actually seems borderline mandetory, but which bases are nuclear. Unlikely all/most unless nuclear and conventional are colocated/comingled which probably less required after silos buildout

 

[dirtyid]

Imagery Update: a Tour of One of China's Missile Impact Testing Ranges

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I jest mildly, but this is why we take stephen chen somewhat seriously but not literally when PRC adds 40m STEM in 10 years and there's surplus neurons to explain obvious shit. I remember 3 years ago he posted customary "exaggerated" SCMP article that got dismissed on reddit because Stephen Chen:

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• "Chinese scientists work on hypersonic missile that can hit moving car"
• "‘Important progress’ has been made towards 2025 deadline to come up with solutions to the missile technology’s challenges"

Hey it's 2025! Also note:

• The hypersonic heat-seeker would also be able to go after a target in the air
• demonstrated a technology that would allow a hypersonic ground-to-air missile to hit a target as small as a commercial drone

Queue E7 wedgetail getting canned citing survivability, granted because spacex makes megaconstellation ISR much better proposition.

Regardless, there aren't going to be tracks in the sky to serve as proxy indicator for hypersonic anti air like hypersonic -> moving ground target, but shooting down AWACs and tankers with hypersonics always seemed pretty obvious.

Note this was posted in May 2022, and AFAIK Aug 2022 was first time we had verificatin from Fannel, former director of intelligence for Pacific Fleet "confirm" PRC's 2020 df26+d21 tests "by all accounts" hit a moving target at sea. So in 2020 PLA likely can hit moving ships. In retrospect it makes sense to be actively exploring hitting smaller moving vehicles by 2022... and who knows timeline for hitting air, but my guess is sooner than later.

Also if PRC missiles designed to hit moving vehicles, it obviously goes to say it can be used to assassinate individuals. Like not as collateral free as a samurai hellfire r9x, but the notion DF26 launched from PRC that can potentially cancel anyone up to 2IC, all of middle east, most of east europe, 20 minutes after launch is pretty... interesting.