DF-15s should still be in service for a while, i recall in the early to mid 2000s when Taiwan used to count how many missiles China had pointing at them and the number goes up every year. most of those were DF-15s, i imagine there is still a large stockpile of those.
China IRBM/SRBM (and non-ICBM/SLBM) thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Big if true...
Based on recent estimates, China now fields nearly 1000 DF-21D AShMRBMs.
Other than that, gotta pump up the DF-17 and DF-26 numbers...
Based on recent estimates, China now fields nearly 1000 DF-21D AShMRBMs.
Other than that, gotta pump up the DF-17 and DF-26 numbers...
Hmmm I thought the consensus was that the HN was just a manufacturer designation and the HN-3 was just another name for the DF-100(Should be CJ-100 now right?) and I remember patch saying the DF21s have almost been phased out but this infographic mentions thousands are in service? Seems like another MIC begging ritual.
I am copy pasting my quora post:
I am definitely not a PLARF expert but I follow the PLA a lot. My takes:
DF-11A: The number for this missile assumes they don’t have missiles for replenishing launchers beyond immediate reloads. But the DF-11A is also an old missile that is getting retired fast. So 192 is a reasonable number.
DF-15 variants: The same issue regarding the DF-11A exists here too. This missile is getting retired too. But retirement is slower and specialized variants (anti-power station, bunker buster, etc...) are still getting manufactured. IMO there are more than 300 in the PLA.
DF-16: A new missile that is replacing the DF-15. IMO anything between 800–1100 is a good guess.
DF-17: This is still the world’s only hypersonic glider munition. There are 100+ launchers in the PLA. The normal PLA practice would normally mean 500+ missiles with this number of launchers. But it is quite new so I don’t think they have 500 yet. 300–400 is more likely IMO.
DF-21C: 120 is a reasonable maximum. The missile might be retired already.
DF-21D: Arguably the most famous Chinese missile but, actually, it was never a priority. The DF-21 is an outdated platform. The anti-ship ballistic missile focus is on the DF-26B. The DF-21 variants are mostly retired. They definitely have much less than 960.
DF-26: They definitely have more than 216. Even the US DOD public China Military Power 2022 report listed the number of IRBMs as over 250. US DOD public reports are intentionally behind by a few years in matters like this. I think there are over 400 already.
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My take is:
1. They are definitely over-hyping on the number of DF-21D, possibly only two coastal brigades operating them. Same story are happening on DF-16 counts, only two brigade operating them.
2. They are underestimating DF-26 by a huge margin!! There are 5 - 7 brigades operating DF-26 series. Suppose each brigade gets 24 launchers and another 24 re-loading missiles. I would say at least 240 DF-26s currently in deployment and possibly over 400 if each brigade get more re-loading missiles, which is the most likely case.
3. However, I think the combined number of DF-15 + DF-17 could be very close to the true number. First of all, DF-17 has the cheapest booster stage in PLARF inventory and the bottleneck is the HGV warheads here. I am not sure if they have already produced 500+ warheads since its induction 3 years ago but I am assuming that DF-17 is replacing DF-15 by a one-to-one basis and is going to have a huge number of inventory.
4. WTH is even HN-2 and HN-3?
its hard to see a place for DF-16, what can it do that DF-17 cant? is it cheaper?
I think it can carry a much heavier bunker buster warhead up to 1000 kg. a glide vehicle has to give up warhead space for control surfaces that don't add yield.
I can see the purpose being elimination of hardened assets with moderate air defense degradation: still too dangerous planes to drop dumb bombs, but BM interceptors are gone. This will be the situation within maybe 12-24 hours if things go right, and this can target things like underground munition dumps and mountain airbases.
We agree on DF-15, DF-17, DF-21 and DF-26 numbers. But I am shocked by your DF-16 comment.
I thought it was the future "default" Japan-range missile of PLARF. I thought the DF-17 would be reserved for heavily defended targets because of its penetration capabilities, the DF-26 would be used against ships and more distant US bases and the DF-16 would be the default striker against targets in Japan.
Are there really just 2 brigades operating it?
IIRC, only 617 brigade in Jinhua and 636 brigade in Shaoguan. I don't think they can even reach mainland Japan if assumed range is around 1,000 km.
Meanwhile DF-17 is getting more than 4 brigades even if it was inducted in 2019. To my count, there are 614, 627, 655, 657 and possibly even more if DF-11 and DF-15 brigades start converting.
