China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[SunlitZelkova]

How would you even have MIRVs on a FOBS when the payload bus simply performs a retrograde deorbit burn? I suppose it may theoretically be possible to release at different targets to a very limited degree but even if so a FOBS on a low orbit would have a FAR smaller footprint than a traditional PBV maneuvering on the ascent phase of a high trajectory, which is already fairly limited by the way especially laterally. So, if you have a unitary warhead (and also can't release decoys like a PBV) and have as much throw weight as the DF-5 obviously it makes sense to maximize yield.

Since when was the DF-5C thought to be a FOBS?

Is there any indication why DF-5C has a new megaton warhead when it seemed earlier that such weapons were abandoned when MIRV capable DF-5B was fielded? Speculations suggested that DF-5C would carry more MIRVs than DF-5B, but then it didn't happen after all.

This is pure speculation, but I would guess the megaton warheads are being retained for hardened C2 targets. The small number of DF-5s in relation to the large number of silo DF-31s is very similar to the Soviet force structure of a (relatively) small number of R-36s compared to the massively deployed UR-100s, or the old American one of 1,000 Minutemen but only 50 Titan IIs. One of the roles of the R-36 was to use megaton yield warheads for stuff like Cheyenne Mountain (the other was to carry large numbers of MIRVs, but the DF-5B sort of already does that, and it doesn't seem due to leave service any time soon).

This would track with China's transition away from countervalue minimum deterrence.

 

[Maikeru]

It was when DF-5C's ability to hit anywhere in the world was announced at the 9/3 parade that FOBS speculation started.

 

[SunlitZelkova]

Yield aside, being a FOBS might also indicate the DF-5C is intended for C2 targets. The R-36O's targets were C2 and early warning to disable BMD (and in theory, ABM systems, although the US never ended up deploying them in a significant manner while the R-36O was operational) to ensure the success of the rest of the strike and hinder US retaliation.