China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

bustead

Junior Member
Registered Member
FAS's 2024 report comes out.

Spoiler alert: don't read it, complete waste of time.

No update compared to their 2023 report, they merely put extra 50 warheads on poor DF-26 and 60 warheads in storage to keep their record in line with DoD report.

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Decided to read it anyways. I find it hilarious that they just added 62 warheads "produced" rather than claiming that the warheads are assigned to DF-26s or H-6 bombers.
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
Something really wild happened last night. Five NOTAMs and something launched from Taiyuan

At the first glance it looks like an ABM test but no news came out or they failed? Anyway it doesn't look like a typical Chinese ABM compared to the previous tests.

Or it could be an ICBM with a HGV warhead? But how it could come with two large NOTAMs after deviating from ballistic trajectory.
2024_01_22.jpg


NOTAM data:
A0147/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZXXX/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3856N10941E011
A) ZBPE ZLHW B) 2401221440 C) 2401221555
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N385600E1094100 WITH RADIUS OF 20KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0148/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZXXX/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3930N10806E021
A) ZBPE ZLHW B) 2401221440 C) 2401221557
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N394600E1074800-N392900E1083400-N391500E1082500-N393100E1074000,BAC K TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0149/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4134N09933E031
A) ZLHW B) 2401221442 C) 2401221601
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N415500E0990300-N414100E1001400-N411400E1000400-N412800E0985400,BAC K TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0150/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4246N08323E035
A) ZWUQ B) 2401221448 C) 2401221610
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N431600E0834400-N430500E0840100-N430200E0840500-N425000E0840400- N423100E0834200-N421900E0832100-N421600E0830200-N422700E0824700,BAC K TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0151/24 NOTAMN Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3835N07840E031
A) ZWUQ B) 2401221450 C) 2401221608
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N390400E0785000-N384700E0791600-N380500E0783000-N382300E0780400,BAC K TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0152/24 NOTAMN Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3810N07809E024
A) ZWUQ B) 2401221450 C) 2401221607
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N383400E0780700-N381200E0783900-N374700E0781200-N380800E0774000,BAC K TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Colonel
Registered Member
Something really wild happened last night. Five NOTAMs and something launched from Taiyuan

At the first glance it looks like an ABM test but no news came out or they failed? Anyway it doesn't look like a typical Chinese ABM compared to the previous tests.

Or it could be an ICBM with a HGV warhead? But how it could come with two large NOTAMs after deviating from ballistic trajectory.
View attachment 124304


NOTAM data:

Could there be more than one HGVs mounted on the ICBM?
 
Last edited:

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
Something really wild happened last night. Five NOTAMs and something launched from Taiyuan
Seven days later, another ICBM test is coming up. A third stage ICBM launched from Taiyuan or Jilantai to middle of nowhere.

[_4MVNJ)_ZW@BE2%M3Q4R%2.jpg

NOTAM data:
A0219/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZLHW/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/3951N10238E031
A) ZLHW B) 2401291434 C) 2401291553
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:N401500E1021200-N401100E1030900-N392700E1030400-N393100E1020700, BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0220/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4023N08548E042
A) ZWUQ B) 2401291436 C) 2401291552
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:N403100E0845300-N403700E0864000-N401400E0864200-N400900E0845500, BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL

A0221/24 NOTAMN
Q) ZWUQ/QRDCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/4007N08036E013
A) ZWUQ B) 2401291436 C) 2401291556
E) A TEMPORARY DANGER AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:N400300E0802000-N401300E0802300-N401300E0803300-N401100E0805100- N395900E0804800-N400100E0803000,BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:SFC-UNL.
F) SFC G) UNL
 

Kalec

Junior Member
Registered Member
30 minutes' work based on the chart from "China’s Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords?"

China has approximately 10.85 Million SWU by now, will increase to 13.65M once current expansion complete in next few years.
View attachment 117495
Lanzhou CEP 6 has started Earthquake preparedness study, expected to enter production around 2026-2028 if everything is going on track, putting China's total SWU capability to 15 million per year.

Bidding source:
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
I honestly cannot believe how much time and effort people here put into this water filled rocket nonsense.

This wild claim doesn’t pass the most basic of rudimentary smell test, and I honestly think whichever crackhead dreamt up that idea was just watching Breaking Bad reruns and saw the train heist and went, wait a minute! I can make some CIA anti-China propaganda money with this idea!

 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Seven days later, another ICBM test is coming up. A third stage ICBM launched from Taiyuan or Jilantai to middle of nowhere.

View attachment 124536

NOTAM data:
You mean "three staged ICBM" by "third stage ICBM"? Doesn't three stage missile need 4 zones, three for rocket stages and one for warhead? There are only three zones in this announcement.
 
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