China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[taxiya]

I keep hearing about how experts doubt China's capacity to produce fissile material. They have one of the largest fleet of nuclear reactors in the world. Shouldn't they also have a huge capacity to produce fissile material? Nuclear reactors themselves should also product plutonium as by product of reaction, if I am correct.

You heard from the wrong person for wrong reasoning. Here is a proposal from CNNC to limit import of nuclear fuel.

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1. There are only three countries/regions that are capable to manufacture centrifuge machine and commercially export nuclear fuel, EU, Russia and China. I know it sounds strange because US is not there. But it says that EU is exporting nuclear fuel to US.
2. The Russian fuel is the most economically competitive because most of her machines have recovered investments, so they are purely making profit. This explains why China is importing from Russia, cheaper than domestically produced.
3. Countries (Russia and EU) bind their reactor sale with fuel sale as a package to grab fuel market. Same practice as buying Apple phone are tied to Apple accessories. This forced China to import fuel than increasing domestic productivity.
4. China's fuel production facility has not recovered investments as much as Russia and EU, therefor not competitive to EU and Russia in pricing.

The proposal wanted to limit import, therefor protecting domestic production for market share. The potential capacity isn't an issue, it is the price. The price isn't a real issue either because of pre-existent competitor's established market dominance.

What is China's capacity to produce fissile material now?

In power generation today 70%. If China is willing to break the contracts with France and Russia, 100% within short time.

 

[gelgoog]

There are a couple of mistaken statements there.

The fact is Russia increased the size of their centrifuge cascade for enriching fuel and has put several latest 9th generation gas centrifuges in operation. As the inventor of gas centrifuge technology (it was invented in the Soviet Union with the help of former German nuclear scientists after WW2), the Russians have more experience in the sector than basically everyone else.

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Russian centrifuges use less power to enrich the same amount of fuel. As the article states 9th generation centrifuges are 4x more effective at enriching fuel than older ones. That is one of the reasons why Russia is the market leader.

As for the US, there is some enrichment capacity in the US, but it is done by European centrifuges and the only facility in the US is owned by the European conglomerate URENCO. Still, it only covers a fraction of US demand for fuel. The US's own centrifuge project by Centrus was an abject failure. And the US closed down their older gas diffusion plants because they were not economically competitive. I will give you an example for why. When the French built their Eurodif gas centrifuge facility to replace gas diffusion over a decade ago, the facility went from consuming 2700 MW of power to 50 MW of power to enrich the same amount of nuclear fuel.

Russia also operates facilities to enrich fuel in China under closed doors as a private enterprise, and they licensed older generation gas centrifuges to China so they could make their own facility. China has also made their own more modern gas centrifuges after that.

 

[Kalec]

I have been reading memoirs written by private secretary of "China's nuclear commander", Cheng Kaijia. Very interesting but yet unrevealed details.

How China conducted nuclear test in horizontal and vertical tunnels.



Nuclear package already in the tunnel, waiting for detonation, shot in 1990s.


DF-5 warhead test, a.k.a codename Warhead 506, air dropped.

 

[Kalec]

It seems that China is using 21-XY code to name nuclear test.

Shaft test has a series of codename with 21-8X.

First shaft test memorial, codename 21-81.

Nuclear package in 9th shaft test, code name 21-89

The last one, also the 14th shaft test, codename 21-814.


Meanwhile, tunnel test starts with codename 21-9X

The last tunnel test, also the last nuclear explosive test in China, codename 21-98.

 

[Kalec]

According to the memoir , it further gives credibility that China had already developed a modern tritium-boosted primary stage since 1984.

这次会议，是研究1984年将进行的两次地下核试验，其中一次是我国首次中子弹试验，另一次是氢弹的扳机试验。程副司令除了开会，主导技术方案论证等以外，都是在住房里计算、审查各个测试项目的技术和试验安全方案。他最注重的就是试验总体的安全，以及重点核试验测试项目技术难点和关键节点。

The meeting was to study two underground nuclear tests to be conducted in 1984, one of which was our first neutron bomb test, and the other was a trigger test for a hydrogen bomb. In addition to meetings and leading technical program validation, Cheng calculated and reviewed the technical and test safety programs for the various test items. He focused most on the overall safety of the tests, as well as the technical difficulties and key nodes of the key nuclear test test items.

1984年12月19日，我国初级中子弹原理试验成功。其时，程开甲副司令已调北京工作。
这次试验是采用平洞方式，核爆后第3天，时任基地副司令员的钱绍钧将军就率领我们一干人奔赴试验现场，勘察核爆炸对平洞的力学破坏效应情况，以验证试验安全理论设计。

On December 19, 1984, the principle test of China's primary (?) neutron bomb was successful. At that time, Vice Commander Cheng Kaijia had been transferred to Beijing.

The test was conducted in a tunnel, and on the third day after the nuclear explosion, General Qian Shaojun, then vice commander of the base, led a group of us to the test site to investigate the mechanical damage effect of the nuclear explosion in the tunnel in order to verify the test safety theory design.

Wikiepedia listed two nuclear tests in 1984 but the first one was claimed to be “the fourth failed neutron bomb test," and it is not true according to the memoir. In reality, it is a hydrogen bomb trigger test, a.k.a a primary stage. It makes me wonder how many "claimed failed tests" were actually primary stage tests stead.

And the test in Dec was the first neutron bomb test whereas it was claimed to be "the fifth neutron bomb test" by Wikipedia and finally a successful one.

More significantly, the author, also a nuclear test expert, stated that it generally took them 4 years from digging out tunnels to igniting the bomb. Then how could it be possible that they are digging many additional tunnels if they didn't have a crystal ball to forsee their failed test in 1983 and 1984.

It is also a great indicator that when China could have the capability to re-do a nuclear test in the new tunnel constructed in 2021, possibly no earlier than 2024.

Deng Jiaxian, the top designer of China's nuclear weapons, wrote a poem at the end of 1984.

红云冲天照九宵,千钧核力动地摇。二十年来勇攀后,二代轻舟已过桥
The red clouds shone the sky, nuclear force shook the earth. The second generation of light boat has crossed the bridge, after twenty years of courageous hike.

Presumably he meant that China completed the first test of second-gen primary stage test in Oct, 1984.

By ending the review of memoirs, I have corrected myself, China actually conducted 15 shaft nuclear tests as the last one was a twin test, codename 21-814 & 21-815.

 

[sunnymaxi]

According to the memoir , it further gives credibility that China had already developed a modern tritium-boosted primary stage since 1984.






Wikiepedia listed two nuclear tests in 1984 but the first one was claimed to be “the fourth failed neutron bomb test," and it is not true according to the memoir. In reality, it is a hydrogen bomb trigger test, a.k.a a primary stage. It makes me wonder how many "claimed failed tests" were actually primary stage tests stead.

And the test in Dec was the first neutron bomb test whereas it was claimed to be "the fifth neutron bomb test" by Wikipedia and finally a successful one.

More significantly, the author, also a nuclear test expert, stated that it generally took them 4 years from digging out tunnels to igniting the bomb. Then how could it be possible that they are digging many additional tunnels if they didn't have a crystal ball to forsee their failed test in 1983 and 1984.

It is also a great indicator that when China could have the capability to re-do a nuclear test in the new tunnel constructed in 2021, possibly no earlier than 2024.

Deng Jiaxian, the top designer of China's nuclear weapons, wrote a poem at the end of 1984.

Presumably he meant that China completed the first test of second-gen primary stage test in Oct, 1984.
View attachment 109672
By ending the review of memoirs, I have corrected myself, China actually conducted 15 shaft nuclear tests as the last one was a twin test, codename 21-814 & 21-815.

thanks for the details .can you please describe about Neutron Bomb and its comparison with regular nuke/hydrogen bomb also destruction capacity. can it be used in ICBM/SLBM. does China still have active Neutron bomb program.

 

[Kalec]

thanks for the details .can you please describe about Neutron Bomb and its comparison with regular nuke/hydrogen bomb also destruction capacity. can it be used in ICBM/SLBM. does China still have active Neutron bomb program.

Neutron bomb has a greater radius of nuclear radiation than a regular bomb meanwhile a normal H-bomb has a greater blast effect than neutron bomb. In short, it was designed to be a tactical nuke to kill human being in the European battlefield.

As everyone has seen this classic warhead design, lithium-6 deuteride was used in the secondary stage. But it uses deuterium with tritium as fusion fuel in the secondary and reduce the yield of fission by reducing U-238 component.

However, tritium is like bitcoin in nuclear material as lithium-6 is like shitcoin as a material and also tritium has a half-life of about 12 years, meaning you have to pump more gas into them often. It is also why every major nuclear powers need tritium to keep themselves nuclear capable.

TL;Dr: Neutron bomb is too expensive to maintain, achieve basically nothing above traditional nuke. No one deploys them in present.
,
W-70 nuclear package

 

[sunnymaxi]

Neutron bomb has a greater radius of nuclear radiation than a regular bomb meanwhile a normal H-bomb has a greater blast effect than neutron bomb. In short, it was designed to be a tactical nuke to kill human being in the European battlefield.

As everyone has seen this classic warhead design, lithium-6 deuteride was used in the secondary stage. But it uses deuterium with tritium as fusion fuel in the secondary and reduce the yield of fission by reducing U-238 component.

However, tritium is like bitcoin in nuclear material as lithium-6 is like shitcoin as a material and also tritium has a half-life of about 12 years, meaning you have to pump more gas into them often. It is also why every major nuclear powers need tritium to keep themselves nuclear capable.

TL;Dr: Neutron bomb is too expensive to maintain, achieve basically nothing above traditional nuke. No one deploys them in present.
,View attachment 109703
W-70 nuclear package
View attachment 109704

much appreciate bro. thank you

what about China. are they still maintaining the program or already successful manufacture warheads. or we don't have any latest information regarding this program.

 

[Kalec]

much appreciate bro. thank you

what about China. are they still maintaining the program or already successful manufacture warheads. or we don't have any latest information regarding this program.

Regarding neutron bomb, absolutely no. Neutron bomb is a luxury, too expensive to afford without constant tritium supply.

It was said that neutron bomb has 10 times of radiation over fission bomb, but I mean why don't you just build 10 bombs which may cost less.

China has the know-how but never build them for actual use.


After-effect of China's neutron bomb test. 09/29/1988


The author of memoir, background is the after-effect of China's neutron bomb test. 09/29/1988


His colleague also in present. 09/29/1988

 

[Temstar]

thanks for the details .can you please describe about Neutron Bomb and its comparison with regular nuke/hydrogen bomb also destruction capacity. can it be used in ICBM/SLBM. does China still have active Neutron bomb program.

In a 3 stage bomb design (the most advanced and most common thermonuclear weapon design used by big 5), the fission-fusion stages are surrounded by a radiation casing. The casing is made of some sort of thick metal designed to trap the power of the fission-fusion first and second stage for as long as possible to allow fusion fuel to burn to completion.

The fusion 2nd stage produces an enormous amount of fast moving neutrons which is very penetrating.

It was cleverly worked out a long time ago this casing can be made of depleted uranium. Its physical properties of being dense and heavy makes it a good casing material and it has the added benefit of being able to absorb a lot of that fast neutron from the fusion reaction. In doing so the U-238 itself undergoes fission, further adding energy into the reaction. This would often turn out to be a lot of additional energy, something like half the bomb's yield can come from this fission, hence why these devices are called 3 stage bombs with fission-fusion-fission stages. The fact that a piece of the bomb required for containing the fusion also greatly add to the yield means it's pulling double duty and for a given target yield 3 stage bombs can be made much smaller than just 2 stage fission-fusion "hydrogen bombs".

Once that's done people started to play further with casing material. One of the idea is instead of trying to absorb all that fast neutron and use it to drive additional fission reaction you could instead make the casing out of something that's nearly transparent to fast neutron and let them escape the device while fusion was still going on. Because you're not longer capturing all that fusion energy in the form of fast neutron and letting it drive further fission the yield is greatly reduced, but an intense shower of fast neutron itself is very deadly to living things and can easily penetrate things like the metal shell of a tank and rapidly kill the crew. Hence how neutron bomb is created.

So conceptually you can think of a neutron bomb as just a 2 stage hydrogen bomb, but specially optimized to release most of its energy in the form of fast neutrons instead of gamma ray/shockwave. Even though yes neutron bombs are optimized for releasing neutrons they are still nuclear devices and have yields measured in kilotons. It's properties mean it's great for say, stopping a tank division charging across Europe which is why US was interested in them. It's not very useful for hitting hardened targets or to take out cities as for those you want straight up more yield.