China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[ace43]

That’s what I mean when I argued that the PLA could similar shortage of long range weapons the U.S. faces in a Taiwan contingency. The PLARF could quickly run out of conventional ballistic missiles in a war of attrition.

I don’t know the detail designs of PLA’s ballistic missiles. However, based on Iran’s failed strikes against Israel, it is very likely that most of the older DF-11/15s would be intercepted by Patriot series or Taiwan’s own TK3. The only way to break this dilemma would be the PLA manages to use loiter drones and other asymmetrical weapons to neutralise most of Taiwan’s air defense prior to launching ballistic and cruise missiles.This has yet to be proven.

Firstly, patriot failed to do any interception
Secondly, Iran did great damage and launched small 8 missiles slavos after few days achieving hits draining multiple hundred thaad of which only 1000 were made including Saudi ones
Lastly, considering vast Iranian or even houthis missiles arsenal for <2000 km missiles, it is pointless to think Chinese 9/3 parade showcased conventional hyperosonic cruise, HGV, ballistic missiles and HGV and other IRBMs are in low numbers. Plus there will never be a shortage in event of tiawan like crisis. China can produce even hundreds of IRBM hgvs each month with already stockpile in multiple thousands while only rocket artillery is needed for Taiwan if USA Japan doesn't interven

 

[Kalec]

Based off the information from Reuters about CMPR, I would ask for a refund if I was in the U.S. Congress.



Hmmm I mean they just pull out the same data from last year's report?


It is already obvious that they loaded over 100 of DF-31 into the silo if anyone does math on the "600 warheads" remark last year. Also it is because China may have produced just around 150-200 DF-31 series in total for the past decades. My guess is that they loaded some mobile DF-31 into the silo under the designation of DF-31BJ and mobilize the TEL fleet with newer DF-41/61.


It is just the sheer number of DF-26/27s which we have seen from satellite image. Nothing new.

appeal rejected. this report is so lame that U.S. Congress need a refund asap. It is a huge shrinkflation from 200-page to half of that.

It feels like it was done by someone via:

"Chatgpt please rephrase 2024 report and have some new data from reputable sources and create it as a pdf for me."

"Sorry, my knowledge cut-off date is May 2024."

Then manually delete the worst hallucinations part to 100 pages.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Firstly, patriot failed to do any interception
Secondly, Iran did great damage and launched small 8 missiles slavos after few days achieving hits draining multiple hundred thaad of which only 1000 were made including Saudi ones
Lastly, considering vast Iranian or even houthis missiles arsenal for <2000 km missiles, it is pointless to think Chinese 9/3 parade showcased conventional hyperosonic cruise, HGV, ballistic missiles and HGV and other IRBMs are in low numbers. Plus there will never be a shortage in event of tiawan like crisis. China can produce even hundreds of IRBM hgvs each month with already stockpile in multiple thousands while only rocket artillery is needed for Taiwan if USA Japan doesn't interven

It takes days, if not weeks, for a new batch of missiles to be made, debugged, tested, packaged, and finally sent to PLARF to be loaded onto launchers. In a Taiwan contingency, every hour counts. You want to deliver maximum conventional firepower in the shortest time. Ideally for the PLA, the ideal goal would be to cover every military, dual use facility, and infrastructure (power plants, freight railway stations, oil/gas storage, ports, bridges, segments of highways where jets can take off, etc.) in napalms and fuel air explosives as part of a massive suppressing fire. And then you have to take into account that many of those missile factories would be targeted by Taiwan’s own long range weapons, not to mention if other powers with better standoff weapons and drones intervene.

 

[Blitzo]

That’s what I mean when I argued that the PLA could similar shortage of long range weapons the U.S. faces in a Taiwan contingency. The PLARF could quickly run out of conventional ballistic missiles in a war of attrition.

I don’t know the detail designs of PLA’s ballistic missiles. However, based on Iran’s failed strikes against Israel, it is very likely that most of the older DF-11/15s would be intercepted by Patriot series or Taiwan’s own TK3. The only way to break this dilemma would be the PLA manages to use loiter drones and other asymmetrical weapons to neutralise most of Taiwan’s air defense prior to launching ballistic and cruise missiles.This has yet to be proven.

I think you misunderstood what he wrote.

He is saying that Iran only fired a portion of its estimated missile capacity, and that the CMPR's estimates for PRC missile magazine capacity seems strangely low.

It takes days, if not weeks, for a new batch of missiles to be made, debugged, tested, packaged, and finally sent to PLARF to be loaded onto launchers. In a Taiwan contingency, every hour counts. You want to deliver maximum conventional firepower in the shortest time. Ideally for the PLA, the ideal goal would be to cover every military, dual use facility, and infrastructure (power plants, freight railway stations, oil/gas storage, ports, bridges, segments of highways where jets can take off, etc.) in napalms and fuel air explosives as part of a massive suppressing fire. And then you have to take into account that many of those missile factories would be targeted by Taiwan’s own long range weapons, not to mention if other powers with better standoff weapons and drones intervene.

There's no particular reason to bring up the PRC missile inventory question again because it's already been answered and addressed previously.

The answer being we won't know what the actual distribution and effectiveness of respective offensive and defensive fires are until the balloon actually goes up, so asking "what if they don't have enough missiles" is about as useful as asking "what if they have more than enough missiles" ---- our estimates are partial at best regardless.


What you're writing isn't that big of a deal -- we've all known for many years know that such a conflict will be a system of systems theater wide campaign across multiple domains involving multiple layers of offensive fires as well as layered defenses, all supported by offboard sensing and shooters as well.

 

[Dante80]

The unclassified version of the CMPR each year deals with events happening the year prior to it.
For example, this one released now concerns PLA info for up until the end of 2024.

Keep that mind before commenting on stuff shown this year.

 

[Totoro]

The report was always of limited usefulness but this years' takes the cake. The new much shorter format makes is essentially useless. And that's not counting various errors it contains.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Fun fact: IRGC launched something like just under 600 ballistic missiles at Israel in the 12 day war this year, out of a stockpile of something like 3000.

PLARF has a smaller stockpile than IRGC according to this.

Also what is with that 400 missiles but 550 launchers for ICBMs?

Put into perspective. Most of the components of Iranians missiles are "smuggled" components and materials from China, like IMUs and ceramics, that is the reason the Israelis are so angry with China because they want China to cut that shadow trade with Iran. So are you going to tell me that a country with the industrial capacity of China, capable of MASS PRODUCING the heat resistant materials for missiles, the solid propellants, the integrated circuits, the high explosives for the warhead, the carbon fiber, the guidance sensors, the computers... ENTERALLY ON ITS OWN. Has less missiles than Iran. Anyone who believe that either has the mental capabilities of toddler or should be working flipping burgers instead of advising for a military department.

 

[TheWanderWit]

View attachment 166758
Oof, that's a spicy missile that DF-27. Conventional strike ICBM with up to 8000km range and can hit both land and sea targets.

Why'd they even classify it as an ICBM? As far as I know, DF-27 has always been considered to be an IRBM. Calling it an ICBM is essentially stating China has.. conventional ICBMs which is quite an extraneous claim. Although I'd say it possibly depends on how exactly one is setting the range thresholds as.

 

[Temstar]

Why'd they even classify it as an ICBM? As far as I know, DF-27 has always been considered to be an IRBM. Calling it an ICBM is essentially stating China has.. conventional ICBMs which is quite an extraneous claim. Although I'd say it possibly depends on how exactly one is setting the range thresholds as.

I think the convention is any ballistic missile with greater than 5500km gets the ICBM designation.

 

[Owlfelino]

Why'd they even classify it as an ICBM? As far as I know, DF-27 has always been considered to be an IRBM. Calling it an ICBM is essentially stating China has.. conventional ICBMs which is quite an extraneous claim. Although I'd say it possibly depends on how exactly one is setting the range thresholds as.

This boils down to geography. Because of where China is located compared to the US or Soviet Union, their definitions vary. PLARF calls the 5,000–8,000 km range 'long-range'("远程导弹"), while the INF Treaty set the ICBM threshold at 5,500 km.