China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[CaribouTruth]

Nothing new or unexpected, but some corroboration that the silos are getting filled. The exact missile might be or not be the DF-31 but still a bit of news.

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Exclusive: China likely loaded more than 100 ICBMs in silo fields, Pentagon report says​

China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks, according to a draft Pentagon report which highlighted Beijing's growing military ambitions.
In particular, the report said that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China's border with Mongolia - the latest in a series of silo sites. The Pentagon had previously reported the existence of the fields but not the number of missiles loaded.
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Reminded me that we've still haven't got the CMPR yet this year. Wonder what this pentagon report is. N

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Nothing new or unexpected, but some corroboration that the silos are getting filled. The exact missile might be or not be the DF-31 but still a bit of news.

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Exclusive: China likely loaded more than 100 ICBMs in silo fields, Pentagon report says​

China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks, according to a draft Pentagon report which highlighted Beijing's growing military ambitions.
In particular, the report said that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China's border with Mongolia - the latest in a series of silo sites. The Pentagon had previously reported the existence of the fields but not the number of missiles loaded.
...

Reminded me that we've still haven't got the CMPR yet this year. Wonder what this pentagon report is. N

This is a leak from the draft of the CMPR as mentioned in the article.

 

[AndrewS]

Nothing new or unexpected, but some corroboration that the silos are getting filled. The exact missile might be or not be the DF-31 but still a bit of news.

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Exclusive: China likely loaded more than 100 ICBMs in silo fields, Pentagon report says​

China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks, according to a draft Pentagon report which highlighted Beijing's growing military ambitions.
In particular, the report said that China had likely put in more than 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields close to China's border with Mongolia - the latest in a series of silo sites. The Pentagon had previously reported the existence of the fields but not the number of missiles loaded.
...

Reminded me that we've still haven't got the CMPR yet this year. Wonder what this pentagon report is. N

It well could be the DF-31.

If China were to fill all the silos with larger DF-41/45, that would easily be 3000+ warheads, which feels too excessive and with too many warheads in vulnerable fixed silos

So they might as well use smaller DF-31 ICBMs instead.

 

[Sierra]

If China were to fill all the silos with larger DF-41/45

41 is not silo based, I think you meant 5C alleged to have 12 warheads besides 31BJ.

And just a reminder not all vehicles/silos will have warheads some are decoys.

 

[vincent]

And just a reminder not all vehicles/silos will have warheads some are decoys.

Says who?

 

[Sierra]

Says who?

Says "more silos than missiles" strategy.

To force adversary to expend a large number of their own warheads to target every single silo. It's cost effective since adding silos is much much cheaper than an adversary needing to add many more warheads to target them all. And the Uncertainty factor to complicate adversary's first-strike.

 

[montyp165]

Says "more silos than missiles" strategy.

To force adversary to expend a large number of their own warheads to target every single silo. It's cost effective since adding silos is much much cheaper than an adversary needing to add many more warheads to target them all. And the Uncertainty factor to complicate adversary's first-strike.

Indeed, I expect the PLARF to have 1000 silo-based DF-41/DF-61 level missiles by the end of the decade as their build rate effectively matches the US's best ICBM field rate of the 1960s, even before counting road and rail-mobile missiles.

 

[vincent]

Says "more silos than missiles" strategy.

To force adversary to expend a large number of their own warheads to target every single silo. It's cost effective since adding silos is much much cheaper than an adversary needing to add many more warheads to target them all. And the Uncertainty factor to complicate adversary's first-strike.

No proof of that strategy. 300 ICBMs aren’t much.

 

[Blitzo]

Says "more silos than missiles" strategy.

To force adversary to expend a large number of their own warheads to target every single silo. It's cost effective since adding silos is much much cheaper than an adversary needing to add many more warheads to target them all. And the Uncertainty factor to complicate adversary's first-strike.

That's the shell game argument, which is not infeasible, but at the same time there is no reason to believe that filling all the silos in the long term won't be done.

After all, these silos do not exist merely as a second strike system but also as part of a launch on alert system before opposition warheads touch down. Large scale throw weight is important for that regard.

 

[Sierra]

launch on alert system before opposition warheads touch down

LoW is still in development and won't be implemented until enough EW satellites are placed in each orbit (work is being done).