China Geopolitical News Thread

[Zool]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

There isn't a procedure that can work, if neither side is willing to compromise. My beef with the US is she insists on maintaining her supremacy in Asia, while that model can't possibly work if China challenges it. My beef with China is she's trying to push the US, which is a Pacific nation, out of Asia. Both great powers need to admit to each other no economic or military scheme can work in Asia if the opposite party actively resists. Also, I think it's up to the US to take the first step and reach out to China, because she's the stronger of the two.

Is there an actual mechanism that both sides can accept, even if neither is happy with it? Maybe yes, and maybe no. But, we know the current structure isn't going to last much longer, because China is actively resisting it. A possible solution is for US to share power with China, and jointly lead what Hugh White frames as a "Concert of Asia" that includes fellow great powers India, and Japan. It's not a perfect solution, but if the alternative is greater strategic competition of the bad kind between America and China, then all will suffer in the end.

I agree with your entire assessment in the first paragraph. Where I disagree with the second is the feasibility of a power-share grouping in Asia that includes the US. While the United States is a Pacific Nation, it is not an Asian Nation. It simply does not share the same geography. Never mind culture and history. A regional solution is required by the immediate neighbours. Primarily China, Korea & Japan. IMHO at least.

 

[Blackstone]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

I think China's position in this case (and from the article) has less to do with international law and more to do with conveying it's security concerns. Following that, a point is being made about the US/China relationship and how it cannot progress with these issues as a continual barrier.

From China's perspective, it's more than just security. Simply stated, Diaoyu islands dispute with Japan in the ECS is about exorcising the ghost of the unequal, immoral, and despised

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, in addition to security and resources. Taiwan is about addressing the last piece of the Chinese Civil War, and solving China's access to the Western Pacific. South China Sea is about sovereignty, security, resource, establishing a two-ocean navy, and dominating Asia. The barrier you spoke of between China and the US will persist until the two agree to share power, be firsts among equals, and lead Asia with other great powers.

 

[Blackstone]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

I agree with your entire assessment in the first paragraph. Where I disagree with the second is the feasibility of a power-share grouping in Asia that includes the US. While the United States is a Pacific Nation, it is not an Asian Nation. It simply does not share the same geography. Never mind culture and history. A regional solution is required by the immediate neighbours. Primarily China, Korea & Japan. IMHO at least.

Ask yourself these questions three on US-China strategic competition-

1) Can the US maintain supremacy in Asia, if China actively resists?
2) Can China impose supremacy in Asia, if the US actively resists, with the cooperation and partnership of Japan?
3) Do most nations in Asia want the US to leave?

The plain truth is America needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic or military security in Asia without China, and China needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic and military security in Asia without the United States. Power-sharing and some kind of "Concert of Asia" may not be the perfect solution, but what's better? Keep in mind unworkable solutions are no solutions at all.

 

[Equation]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

From China's perspective, it's more than just security. Simply stated, Diaoyu islands dispute with Japan in the ECS is about exorcising the ghost of the unequal, immoral, and despised

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, in addition to security and resources. Taiwan is about addressing the last piece of the Chinese Civil War, and solving China's access to the Western Pacific. South China Sea is about sovereignty, security, resource, establishing a two-ocean navy, and dominating Asia. The barrier you spoke of between China and the US will persist until the two agree to share power, be firsts among equals, and lead Asia with other great powers.

Ask yourself these questions three on US-China strategic competition-

1) Can the US maintain supremacy in Asia, if China actively resists?
2) Can China impose supremacy in Asia, if the US actively resists, with the cooperation and partnership of Japan?
3) Do most nations in Asia want the US to leave?

The plain truth is America needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic or military security in Asia without China, and China needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic and military security in Asia without the United States. Power-sharing and some kind of "Concert of Asia" may not be the perfect solution, but what's better? Keep in mind unworkable solutions are no solutions at all.

That sounds hopeful and great but you and I know darn well Japan elite rulers would NEVER accept this. They would rather maintain the current status quo at all cost even if it means possible conflict between the US and China, in which I do NOT want to see happen.

 

[Zool]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

Ask yourself these questions three on US-China strategic competition-

1) Can the US maintain supremacy in Asia, if China actively resists?
2) Can China impose supremacy in Asia, if the US actively resists, with the cooperation and partnership of Japan?
3) Do most nations in Asia want the US to leave?

The plain truth is America needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic or military security in Asia without China, and China needs to get her head wrapped around the fact that there's no economic and military security in Asia without the United States. Power-sharing and some kind of "Concert of Asia" may not be the perfect solution, but what's better? Keep in mind unworkable solutions are no solutions at all.

To your above post - my observations are specific to the article I originally linked and the communication therein. Big picture is important but sometimes we need to look at the immediate circumstance and intent. A message can be as simple as what is written.

So to this post and the good questions you have posed, I would start by saying there is no easy yes or no. It's much more complicated than a one word answer. But I'll make an attempt to share my view as simply as I can based on where I currently see US/China Relations (China Geopolitics Thread is probably where this should be continued):

1) Yes, the US can maintain supremacy in Asia, with China actively resisting, for a time

2) Yes, China can achieve supremacy in Asia, with the US actively resisting ('impose' implies through forcible means, which is not a prerequisite for China to reach this status), in time

3) Most individual nations in Asia currently want US Security Guarantees & Access to US Markets. Most individual nations having security assurance from China & North Korea would prefer US Forces not be in Asia. Population wise (ex. if it were a vote) most Asians do not currently want US Forces in Asia.

As I noted before, China is geographically at home in the region, with it's efforts centred in Asia. It shares a common culture to it's neighbours. It has a large, motivated population and it has a growing economy and R&D base. All of this predisposes it to naturally become the leading power in Asia as time goes on. Militarily it is focused in the one region with it's local support base; not spread across the globe countering adversaries in Europe, The Middle East, South America etc. Events and how they are responded to by China & the US will dictate the timetable.

 

[Doombreed]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

The barrier you spoke of between China and the US will persist until the two agree to share power, be firsts among equals, and lead Asia with other great powers.

Did Britain share power with the United States in the Americas? Can you name one instance in history where great powers agreed to share power and become first amongst equals?

 

[Doombreed]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

As I noted before, China is geographically at home in the region, with it's efforts centred in Asia. It shares a common culture to it's neighbours. It has a large, motivated population and it has a growing economy and R&D base. All of this predisposes it to naturally become the leading power in Asia as time goes on. Militarily it is focused in the one region with it's local support base; not spread across the globe countering adversaries in Europe, The Middle East, South America etc. Events and how they are responded to by China & the US will dictate the timetable.

And shared history. Which is precisely why China's Asian neighours would prefer a leading power from accross the ocean. Without America in the region, the eventual Chinese dominance of Asia would be absolute and complete. Why should the Japanese allow the Chinese to dictate their foreign policy?

America does not belong in the region. It can not impose absolute will in the region. And that is exactly why Asian nations prefer the US over China.

What would you prefer. A tributory state to China? Or an American ally.

 

[plawolf]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

China's position on US or anyone else gathering intelligence off her shores is inconsistent with her claims of upholding international laws and norms. While I think US leaders might rethink their approach to intelligence gathering off China's shores, it's unquestionable US has the right to do it. China has no right under international law to regulate military affairs in anyone's EEZ, so she's attempting to create right through might. I sincerely hope US leaders continue or even increase surveillance until China stops trying to change the status quo through bullying. After that, I hope US reevaluates the frequency of intelligence gathering and stop sticking her fingers in China's eye for no good purpose.

Oh please spare us the false morality and blatant hypocrisy. The US throws its considerable weight around all the time, and routinely breaks international laws whenever it suits them even when those 'international' laws were drawn up almost exclusively by western governments and institutions and invariably massively favours the west in general and America in particular.

Anyone who thinks the US got to where it is today by being a Boy Scout is either in deep denial or is simply a stranger to history and international politics.

A very big part of the reason why China chafes so much at 'international' laws is because the very creators and chief advocates of those 'laws' flaunt, circumvents or downright breaks them so often.

If you, the creator and self appointed enforcer of the law has no respect for it, how can you expect anyone else to?

If America and the west truly want anyone else to respect their 'international' laws, they themselves should first follow those laws in both letter and spirit.

 

[Zool]

Re: East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

And shared history. Which is precisely why China's Asian neighours would prefer a leading power from accross the ocean. Without America in the region, the eventual Chinese dominance of Asia would be absolute and complete. Why should the Japanese allow the Chinese to dictate their foreign policy?

America does not belong in the region. It can not impose absolute will in the region. And that is exactly why Asian nations prefer the US over China.

What would you prefer. A tributory state to China? Or an American ally.

To be honest, we don't know what a Chinese lead Asia would look like. I think projections of China dictating foreign policy or establishing a 'tributary state', is making a pessimistic assumption. China has evolved over it's long history and is doing so even now, not just economically but socially, at a pace it feels will be stable to maintain growth and security.

Some of what we do know, is that China has a stated non-interference policy when it comes to other nations internal affairs. And we know China is a proponent of a multi-polar world order. We also know China has been willing to make sacrifices in the past in order to secure final boarders with it's neighbours.

Tensions over and events relating to ADIZ/Disputed Territory should not necessarily be used as the sole means to judge a future China lead Asia. Disputes require two or more parties, and if China did not press it's interests in current disputes, it would have less leverage during negotiations or potentially in effect relinquish it's claim.

What would I prefer? An 'Asia Union' of sorts where China, Korea & Japan would naturally take up a more significant role as befits their economic status and size as a measure of populus.

 

[AssassinsMace]

The eventual dominance of Asia by China is not a conspiracy. If you actually believe in capitalist market principles, China will be the natural regional power. If countries around China are so afraid of China then don't do business and don't have any relations with China. They can't do that because they don't have the economic power of China. China's dominance comes from the greed of neighbors. If the US was the true savior, then they would make sure it was the number one customer for every neighbor of China. If it's all right for the US to use its economic muscles, i.e. PNB Paribis of France, then China has the right to use the greed of its neighbors. Why should China allow anyone, including the US, to dictate it's foreign policy?