China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
I think it was brought up in other thread, but the future of flankers with PLA is kind of interesting. How many more flankers do they need if J-20s are going gangbusters at 100 a year or even more than that.
Recently, we saw photo for 1105. In the past, most batches have been 24 aircraft (with a couple at 26 according to lyman). Since 2020, we are getting 2 batches every year (so 48). batch 11 is the first batch of this year and batch 12 will be the second. By the end of this year, we will probably be looking at 12 batches totally close to 300 J-16s. On top of that, it looks like we are getting 1 batch of J-16Ds a year. Not sure how many per batch. Maybe 10 to 12?
Depending on # of J-15s, it looks to me that producing 60 flankers a year is not a problem for them. Even 70 a year is quite doable.
Given that we still have brigades of JH-7A to replace, I wonder how many more J-16s we need. On the conservative end, 100 more is probably needed. On the high end, maybe 250 more will be built (so 50 a year for 5 more years). That doesn't include the need for maybe 100 J-16Ds and another 100 or more J-15s.
If we assume that they get to 300 J-16s by the end of this year, it's quite possible they get to 500 before J-35 production ramps up. At which point, it really doesn't make sense to produce any new J-16s.
Recently, we saw photo for 1105. In the past, most batches have been 24 aircraft (with a couple at 26 according to lyman). Since 2020, we are getting 2 batches every year (so 48). batch 11 is the first batch of this year and batch 12 will be the second. By the end of this year, we will probably be looking at 12 batches totally close to 300 J-16s. On top of that, it looks like we are getting 1 batch of J-16Ds a year. Not sure how many per batch. Maybe 10 to 12?
Depending on # of J-15s, it looks to me that producing 60 flankers a year is not a problem for them. Even 70 a year is quite doable.
Given that we still have brigades of JH-7A to replace, I wonder how many more J-16s we need. On the conservative end, 100 more is probably needed. On the high end, maybe 250 more will be built (so 50 a year for 5 more years). That doesn't include the need for maybe 100 J-16Ds and another 100 or more J-15s.
If we assume that they get to 300 J-16s by the end of this year, it's quite possible they get to 500 before J-35 production ramps up. At which point, it really doesn't make sense to produce any new J-16s.
before you even consider having JH-7's replaced, it is likely that J-11A's and J-7/8's will have to go before that, and even the older SU30s. JH7 actually occupies a niche that makes it quite useful.
"Allegedly early J-11B (still powered by AL-31F engines) upgraded with new AESA radar." (via Taepodong / @stoa1984 on Twitter)
That's actually strange but as far as I remember, the first updated J-11BGs were delivered to the 1st Air Brigade also still with AL-31F engines since it then still flew AL-31F-powered Batch 01 J-11Bs.
So, IMO this is most likely one of these not-reengined J-11Bs.
That's actually strange but as far as I remember, the first updated J-11BGs were delivered to the 1st Air Brigade also still with AL-31F engines since it then still flew AL-31F-powered Batch 01 J-11Bs.
So, IMO this is most likely one of these not-reengined J-11Bs.