FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Depends on number of HGV that can be fit on one missile vs number of traditional MIRV and decoys that can be fit on one missile.
Real future is a reusable hypersonic delivery system with global range.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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Depends on number of HGV that can be fit on one missile vs number of traditional MIRV and decoys that can be fit on one missile.
Real future is a reusable hypersonic delivery system with global range.
I don't really think silo deployment can ever reach into service status in merely one or two years. I haven't seen any confirmation that China tested new MIRVed ICBM yet, but DF-41 is good enough for silo deployment anyway.
The "300" deployed ICBM is very likely to be speculative, their estimation fluctuated like btcoin every year and shouldn't be taken as serious assessment.
First time I heard about silo field rumor was dated to 2017/2018 even before the first batch of Jinlantai silos were built when cjdby was still a thing. I can clearly recall it was said by a nuclear industry insider, claiming China will eventually build massive arrays of silos with heavy ICBMs.
Meanwhile Pentagon report did mention about silo and rail deployment option and not even indicating any sign of new silo ICBM. Also their number counting is too suspicious with any further explanation as the silos are not being fitted with ICBMs any time soon.
antiterror13
Brigadier
300 new ICBM silos ... really? .. in page 64
What's the point of "reuse" in nuclear warfare
Not sure why it's a surprise. Didn't we have multiple satellite imagery confirmations that the three fields have over 300 silos in total over the last two years? I don't see the statement "... will cumulatively contain at least 300 new ICBM silos" has revealed anything new.
Finally I find these old memoirs back though I was told by other nuclear enthusiasts and forgot to archive them.
Peng Xianjue, who served as chief designer of thermonuclear secondary stage in 60s, warheads designer throughout 80s and 90s, now still active as a fusion reactor researcher.
"Advanced" practically means "generally on par with" or "slightly inferior than" the U.S. and Soviet.
In my untrained eye, it seems to suggest that China has warheads of variable yield.
I mean it is hardly a surprise. China has used whatever method to steal American warhead designs back in earlier 1980s then Chinese scientists realized that nuclear weapon was approaching physical limit and US/Soviet may pressure other nuclear states to stop nuclear test in order to maintain their design advantage.
Peng Xianjue, who served as chief designer of thermonuclear secondary stage in 60s, warheads designer throughout 80s and 90s, now still active as a fusion reactor researcher.
”The Department of Theoretical Physics is the leader in the development of China's nuclear weapons. It is the most important contributor to China's nuclear weapons technology, which has basically reached or approached the world's advanced level with only 40 nuclear tests and 2% of the cost of the United States.“
"Advanced" practically means "generally on par with" or "slightly inferior than" the U.S. and Soviet.
”He has played a key role in saving precious materials and improving the adaptability to changes in weapon power, making an important contribution to the design of China's sophisticated weapons to reach the world's advanced level.“
In my untrained eye, it seems to suggest that China has warheads of variable yield.
I mean it is hardly a surprise. China has used whatever method to steal American warhead designs back in earlier 1980s then Chinese scientists realized that nuclear weapon was approaching physical limit and US/Soviet may pressure other nuclear states to stop nuclear test in order to maintain their design advantage.
Historically the fastest deployment of solid-fuel ICBMs was with the missiles deployed by SAC in July 1962 and reached its initial peak level of 800 missiles by June 1965, and after newer versions were produced reached a max peak of 1000 missiles by the 1970s. The PLARF has more than sufficient industrial base to achieve this with DF-41s if so needed.
Also some old memoirs from nuclear warhead designers and engineers
A 2001 biography about Xue Bencheng, then chief engineer of China's nuclear academy.
In early 1989, the Institute decided to assemble a soft science research group of experts by Xue Bencheng to propose a conceptual design of a new nuclear device, the performance of which should reach the most advanced international level."
A 2001 biography about Xue Bencheng, then chief engineer of China's nuclear academy.
”After a decade of collaborative research, a successful test in 1988 marked China's complete mastery of neutron bomb technology." In line with wikipedia's description.
"Since the 1980s, in the face of the challenges of hegemonic power (US and Soviet), several famous scientists such as Deng Jiaxian, Yu Min and Hu Renyu, "Fathers of China's Nuclear Program", proposed to the central government that China's nuclear program must accelerate the pace of development based on their careful analysis of the development trend of nuclear weapons science and technology and international nuclear disarmament trends. The planning began immediately.
In early 1989, the Institute decided to assemble a soft science research group of experts by Xue Bencheng to propose a conceptual design of a new nuclear device, the performance of which should reach the most advanced international level."
"Of the 45 nuclear tests conducted in China, Xue Bencheng has participated in about 20, starting with the successful detonation of the first atomic bomb."
The world’s first commercial onshore small modular reactor (SMR) project Linglong One started the installation of its nuclear island (NI) on Wednesday, according to the developer China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).
The demonstration project of Linglong One, also known as the ACP100, began construction at the Changjiang Nuclear Power Plant in south China's Hainan Province on July 13 last year.
The nuclear island to be installed is the core component of the entire nuclear plant, with a series of major components including pressure vessel and vapor generator.
Linglong One, a multi-purpose pressurized water reactor (PWR) developed by CNNC, is cheaper and quicker to build and deploy with higher safety level. It can be used in power supply, seawater desalination, spot heating and industrial heating.
Each SMR unit using Linglong One design has a power of 125,000 kilowatts.
It is the first SMR approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2016.
The expected annual energy output of the project will hit one billion kilowatt hour after 58 months of construction.
Honestly, given China's over capacity (and cheap too) in the construction industry (especially SOEs that used to build high-speed rail tunnels), it doesn't hurt to construct 1000+ silos (should be less complicated than 10+ km long HSR tunnels, albeit hardened cement and steel needed) throughout Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Tibet. Then only fill 1/4 of them with actual DF-41s or DF-31s and play a shell game, such as having those ICBMs shuffled between silos once a week. In essence, temporary empty silos would function as sponges to absorb the bulk of adversary's first wave ICBMs. This would also force the US to greatly increase its arsenal and tie down significant resources in defense budges (like how the Reagan Administration fooled the Soviets into over-spending in defense in the 80s), leaving little room in expanding medicaid/medicare/Obamacare (already the least efficient in the developed world), social security, education, and other welfare long demanded by Americans.
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