China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread


AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Your opinion has some value and is correct, but it doesn't reach a conclusion.

What we have:

The American version: FOBS + HGV + One released object

The Chinese version: A spaceship.

Departing from the Chinese interpretation, comments are being driven by the American version.

Let's go to the American version:

If this really is what the US is revealing, then the system set up would look like this:

When the test took place in July/August, what was essentially said to be confirmed was precisely an FOBS with HGV, but the longest-reaching HGV in China was the DF-17 with a range of 2500 km, even with the possibility of attacking by the South Pole, American radars could still see something when the vehicle releases the HGV, so the American dedicated ABM radars might have some chance of detecting the FOBS, because of the short range of the HGV. Afterwards, Hytten confirmed that the released vehicle had an intercontinental range, the HGV therefore actually had a range above 5500 km, this until then was new for the whole world, as China had never tested this glider with this range that it is in the same category as the Avangard.

What then changes from 2500 km to 5500 km? Everything.

As American radars do not have a precise resolution above 4500 km of range for altitudes above 1,000 km, and the altitude of the FOBS which is below 150 km of altitude was already unfeasible in terms of missile detection, now everything changes with this new news. With a range of 2500 km, it would mean that the FOBS would have to remain in orbit up to the height of Jamaica if it attacked from the South Pole, a mobile radar like Aegis or even the SBX could detect the missile if it were under the height of Miami, as soon as the HGV performed the maneuver by re-entering the atmosphere, it could be tracked continuously until it reached Washington.

Already, an intercontinental range HGV changes everything. The FOBS could carry out the movement in orbit up to the height of the Equator calmly that as soon as it arrived in that position, the vehicle would release the HGV, therefore, the HGV would come gliding until reaching Washington. Even with Aegis and SBX aimed at the South Pole, the detection range would be greatly reduced due to the gliding altitude of the HGV, giving even less time for the American anti-missile system to respond. China has simply rendered the entire ABM apparatus useless with this supposedly new tested weapon.

And that's more, now the HGV releases another vehicle or missile or countermeasure. This demonstrates that the Chinese are not pro-reactive, but pro-active, they have even thought of a possible countermeasure to increase the missile's chances of success. In terms of hypersonic technology, this demonstrates that the Chinese are way ahead of Russia and the US, the Americans themselves have recognized this and that's why Milley claimed to be a Sputnik moment for the US.

Some conclusions lead to believe that Americans, knowing all this, are already able to detect hypersonic missiles, but this is just an untold part of the story.

What I said earlier about current ABM radars are true, but they don't explain how the US manages to track China's hypersonic missiles. Let's first point out that the released missile was in the SCS (South Sea China) and the north facing ABM radars are not able to track a missile in the SCS. That's why this need to have a satellite detection and tracking capability is impossible to achieve with land, naval and air sensors and is the reason for the HBTSS and the American Blackjack. What Americans have today in terms of this are land, naval and air sensors in the SCS (South China Sea), not a few but many around China and in the SCS.

For example, last year when the DF-21D and DF-26B were launched at the SCS, the US already knew in advance that the shooting would take place and took off with the RC-135S Cobra Ball, there are three such aircraft currently in service at the ACC, although apparently permanently operating under the PACAF, has seen the many North Korean and Chinese tests at SCS, which are currently based either in Guam or Japan. These aircraft are responsible for collecting ballistic missile information last year, when there was that incident where the Chinese launched the two missiles, the RC-135S tracked the DF-21D and DF-26B when they were accelerating in the reinforcement phase and re-entry, the aircraft was able to track that the missiles had hit the ship that was moving nearby in the Paracel Islands, which was mentioned in the ONI report as Naval published. Some reports even said that there was a tracking of 4 missiles instead of the two previously launched, some conclusions here even hinted that this is a technology released for communication in atmospheric reentry.

Today, these RC-135S Cobra Ball aircraft and some MASINT-capable spy satellites are permanently operating on the SCS precisely because of the Chinese and North Korean hypersonic rise. But this tracking capability is small and located in SCS, unable to perform a global tracking, this will change with HBTSS and Blackjack, which are a set of MASINT, ELINT, SIGINT sensors... acting together, this was impossible until then , there was no coordination between MASINT and the other forms of sensors, this changed a few years ago, not even two decades ago this change, this coordination between the different space sensors will give the chance of successful interception anywhere on the planet, after For successful screening, the question that remains is the intercept that would have to rely on interceptor missiles capable of intercepting at the required range and speed.

What the Americans have today in terms of hypersonic missile tracking are land, air and naval assets that actually have insufficient range to maintain a large area covered by radars, which explains the large number of these sensors around the SCS, mainly from China , not even an ASBM launch can be covered up, the US achieves it through these sensors based on land, air and sea, but the range is small. What the US has in terms of satellites with MASINT sensors are spy satellites, which act rigidly in one area, making tracking globally impossible, and even these satellites are unable to communicate with other satellites, this would limit the concept of automatic acquisition of targets, but the evolution of technology today allows retransmission of MASINT data with other forms of sensors ELINT, SIGINT... among others and this will happen to the Americans through HBTSS and Blackjack and the new interceptor missile, the GPI that will probably be placed first in Guam.

Japan is doing the same thing. It will build a constellation of 3 satellites to track a hypersonic missile.
And in an earlier post I said just because the US can detect it, it doesn't mean they would be able to intercept it. It's like how China said its radar saw F-22s flying over South Korea from hundreds of miles away. China might've been able to see it but being able to fire a missile to knock it down is a whole other matter. Like I pointed out, if it takes eight interceptors for a 40% chance at intercepting just one standard ICBM warhead, it's safe to assume a hypersonic vehicle that can maneuver with be a lot harder to intercept. Some critics have pointed out how can China develop hypersonic engines when they can't master turbofan engines? Well... how can the US develop an interceptor of hypersonic vehicles when their present ABM systems are unreliable intercepting standard ICBM warheads?

While everyone is debating whether this is as real or not as reported, I find value in how much of a stir it's created on many fronts. The US is in the same position as the Soviets were at the end of the Cold War. The US is so worried about what China is doing, it's going to go bankrupt trying to keep up. It's only a test and look at how much paranoia it's created. When the US throws money at a problem, it doesn't always solve it. The US entertained ASBM 40 years ago and abandoned it because they didn't think it was possible. Now we have another event of the "impossible" happening. I think it was Hyten that said China has conducted hundreds of hypersonic tests while the US has done less than ten. How can this be when the media in general says China has serious economic problems...? Because the only answer is China can do it cheaper. The US can do something but if China does it cheaper, China wins as seen in international economic competition. Now if China can do something cheaper than what the US doesn't have in its possession, what is the result going to be? China the stealer and copier now has a record of doing what the West says is impossible...? This goes into well beyond the hypersonic technology by itself.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
And in an earlier post I said just because the US can detect it, it doesn't mean they would be able to intercept it. It's like how China said its radar saw F-22s flying over South Korea from hundreds of miles away. China might've been able to see it but being able to fire a missile to knock it down is a whole other matter. Like I pointed out, if it takes eight interceptors for a 40% chance at intercepting just one standard ICBM warhead, it's safe to assume a hypersonic vehicle that can maneuver with be a lot harder to intercept. Some critics have pointed out how can China develop hypersonic engines when they can't master turbofan engines? Well... how can the US develop an interceptor of hypersonic vehicles when their present ABM systems are unreliable intercepting standard ICBM warheads?

That's basically what I said. The US is able to detect and track globally, but only in SCS, outside of that limited area, there is no chance of successful killing of an HGV and with this test, China has shown that it has this global attack capability with HGV. Sensors today that detect and track ballistic and hypersonic threats are not capable of covering the long range when used against HCM or HGV, compared to the ABM range, and even so, tracking today that is done either by spy satellites or MASINT aircraft are not able to automatically communicate with other sensors to enable a hypersonic missile kill, with the Aegis and North Pole radars being quite limited by the range of the radar horizon in question, hence the need to complete a base based on satellite tracking and this is being done.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

First, they didn't believe the Chinese when they said they were just testing a hypersonic vehicle and it was not a weapon. Now that it supposedly released a "missile" or "countermeasure" it makes what the Chinese said first as true. Now they're hung up on what was China trying to test when this object was released from the hypersonic vehicle. It doesn't matter because being able to release an object moving at hypersonic speeds without drastically affecting the main vehicle is supposedly impossible to do. Yes, be like the Indians and just concentrate on the part that it missed its target by 24 miles. It doesn't change how the "impossible" still happened.
 

Andy1974

Junior Member
Registered Member
These unnamed sources are playing national security games via the media. What is really going on here is that the US is telling China that it knows what it is doing and can detect it. When China counters the allegations, the US lets out just a little bit more detail. But never enough detail that China or anyone else will completely know what the US surveillance capabilities are.

This game is as old as civilization.
This isn’t what i think is happening.

I think that China is simply being open and honest, they have stated repeatedly what is happening, and all the evidence points to what they are saying is true. They are letting the US come up with all these “China Threat” theories and will then show them to be all false, demonstrating once again the fear mongering and falseness of the US for all to see, This is the “game” they are playing, IMO. They want to embarrass the US.

China will soon show the world what these tests are about, because they are going to be flying spaceplanes all over the place. Once speculation reaches fever pitch, China will be reveal the concept.

China has told us many times they are making a space plane, they said it will use VTHL first, and then HTHL. We are in the HTHL stage.

They have also told us what they jettisoned, its a propulsion unit/booster, seems they jettisoned it as they entered atmosphere.

They even told us it was a company that was doing the (component) testing, without saying which one, maybe its China Air? Or Alibaba Logistics?:)
 
Last edited:

JSL

Junior Member
Registered Member
.

It apears that the US's missile defense system has FAILED !! :eek::eek::rolleyes:

The US has no idea how the Chinese Hypersonic missile works !!


"The unprecedented military capability, which caught the Pentagon off-guard when it happened July 27, allowed Beijing to fire a missile from a hypersonic glide vehicle mid-flight in the atmosphere over the South China Sea as it traveled at least five times the speed of sound, people familiar with the intelligence told the outlet.

What’s most puzzling to experts at the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is how China was able to fire a projectile from a vehicle traveling at hypersonic speeds. :rolleyes: Experts also don’t know the purpose of the projectile, which had no obvious target when it was released. Some believe it was an air-to-air missile, while others hypothesize it would be meant to destroy missile-defense systems. :eek:

China, Russia and the United States have all pursued hypersonic weapons for years, with Russia saying it test-fired a missile in the arctic on Nov. 18 and the U.S. military in October holding several failed hypersonic missile tests.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

9dashline

Senior Member
Registered Member
The technology was either stolen from the US or was given from a more advanced civilization. There couldn't possibly be any other way!
Super-advanced Type III Chinese AI civilization from the far future sending technology back in time and closing the loop by giving the current Chinese government the knowledge needed to bootstrap itself not only to overcome the Thucydides's Trap against the US but indeed the Great Filter itself
 

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
Super-advanced Type III Chinese AI civilization from the far future sending technology back in time and closing the loop by giving the current Chinese government the knowledge needed to bootstrap itself not only to overcome the Thucydides's Trap against the US but indeed the Great Filter itself
You'd think if they could do that they'd just send the source code for an aligned superintelligence, but I digress.
 

Top