Any peeps from anyone about US-Chinese nuclear warfare will get banned for a month.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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A Hu Xijin's opinion piece. His own opinion, or a hint from the CPC itself?
Interesting. If true, this implies that China is going to focus on building more of these 3 missiles: DF-41, JL-2, and JL-3. Makes sense to me.
No specific mention about warhead number goals. Just a vague quantity that would make 'US elites shiver'.
Last year Hu has already put out an opinion piece that has become known as “一千枚弹头论” or "Thousand Warhead Theory". In his opinion China need to boost warhead numbers to above 1000 urgently and announce it publicly.
It is fairly obvious that in the first stage the PLA focused on increasing the operational flexibility and survivability of the deterrent.
The original DF-31 missile was important as their first road mobile ICBM but it had limited range which could not hit the majority of the CONUS so this was quickly superceded by the DF-31A which had that capability. However the launch platform had limited offroad mobility and they solved that with the DF-31AG. These missiles likely require much less launch prep time than the DF-4/5 series.
The DF-41 basically increases the throw weight and is likely a lot more survivable with more MIRV warheads than the DF-31 series.
I expect the DF-41 and DF-31AG to replace the DF-5 and DF-4s in silos. This will enable the simplification of the deterrent fleet.
If we assume the JL-2 is analogous to the DF-31 and the JL-2A to the DF-31A then the current priority for the naval deterrent is likely replacing JL-1 and JL-2 missiles with the JL-2A so they will be able to hit all targets even while sailing close to the Chinese mainland.
Now that the naval forces have a proper missile we have seen an expansion in the number of Type 094 SSBNs in service.
I expect China to increase their deterrent to at least the size of the UK and France combined in the next years. This would mean 8-12 strategic submarines. The expansion can probably be done with available nuclear materials by repurposing large unitary warheads into smaller MIRV warheads. Also, a lot of the MIRV warheads will probably be decoys so the amount of nuclear material will be further reduced that way.
The next major steps should probably be the development of the Type 096 with larger missile carrying capacity. Current Type 094 submarines can only carry 12 SLBMs. I expect the amount of missiles carried to increase to 16 SLBMs to put them on par with the other recent designs. These SLBMs should be of the JL-3 type. These submarines are likely to use more advanced propulsion and more quiet naval reactors. The Chinese nuclear industry should have enough experience to develop these latest generation naval reactors with passive circulation for enhanced quieting. If the rim-shaft propulsion is used it might be in the form of additional pods for silent running instead of as the main propulsion unit. The PLAN might simply opt for this combined propulsion unit instead of pump-jets. In this case they would likely use the same main propulsion and power units in both the attack and strategic submarines.
More advanced warheads will likely be developed, possibly boost glide warheads like Avangard, but a boost glide warhead is larger and reduces the amount of usable warheads you can put on a missile or their range, so the PLA might simply decide not to use boost glide warheads at all unlike Russia. The reduced range would only make these missiles viable against targets in India or other targets in the Asian landmass. Unlike with Russia polar launches have less range to hit the whole North American landmass. AFAIK France and the US/UK have no plans to use boost glide warheads either. To reduce the chance of interception by AEGIS cruisers they can use a Northern Polar oriented launch profile for the ICBMs. The SLBMs can be positioned in multiple locations for a strike making interception more difficult. To further reduce the chances for interception future missiles might have reduced time of ascent and use more depressed trajectories.
In a more far away future if China does decide to expand their arsenal to a size similar to that of Russia or the US with thousands of warheads then they will likely try to develop missile systems which can approach targets from any direction, possibly even retrograde orbits, to massively spam any defense systems the target might have.
The original DF-31 missile was important as their first road mobile ICBM but it had limited range which could not hit the majority of the CONUS so this was quickly superceded by the DF-31A which had that capability. However the launch platform had limited offroad mobility and they solved that with the DF-31AG. These missiles likely require much less launch prep time than the DF-4/5 series.
The DF-41 basically increases the throw weight and is likely a lot more survivable with more MIRV warheads than the DF-31 series.
I expect the DF-41 and DF-31AG to replace the DF-5 and DF-4s in silos. This will enable the simplification of the deterrent fleet.
If we assume the JL-2 is analogous to the DF-31 and the JL-2A to the DF-31A then the current priority for the naval deterrent is likely replacing JL-1 and JL-2 missiles with the JL-2A so they will be able to hit all targets even while sailing close to the Chinese mainland.
Now that the naval forces have a proper missile we have seen an expansion in the number of Type 094 SSBNs in service.
I expect China to increase their deterrent to at least the size of the UK and France combined in the next years. This would mean 8-12 strategic submarines. The expansion can probably be done with available nuclear materials by repurposing large unitary warheads into smaller MIRV warheads. Also, a lot of the MIRV warheads will probably be decoys so the amount of nuclear material will be further reduced that way.
The next major steps should probably be the development of the Type 096 with larger missile carrying capacity. Current Type 094 submarines can only carry 12 SLBMs. I expect the amount of missiles carried to increase to 16 SLBMs to put them on par with the other recent designs. These SLBMs should be of the JL-3 type. These submarines are likely to use more advanced propulsion and more quiet naval reactors. The Chinese nuclear industry should have enough experience to develop these latest generation naval reactors with passive circulation for enhanced quieting. If the rim-shaft propulsion is used it might be in the form of additional pods for silent running instead of as the main propulsion unit. The PLAN might simply opt for this combined propulsion unit instead of pump-jets. In this case they would likely use the same main propulsion and power units in both the attack and strategic submarines.
More advanced warheads will likely be developed, possibly boost glide warheads like Avangard, but a boost glide warhead is larger and reduces the amount of usable warheads you can put on a missile or their range, so the PLA might simply decide not to use boost glide warheads at all unlike Russia. The reduced range would only make these missiles viable against targets in India or other targets in the Asian landmass. Unlike with Russia polar launches have less range to hit the whole North American landmass. AFAIK France and the US/UK have no plans to use boost glide warheads either. To reduce the chance of interception by AEGIS cruisers they can use a Northern Polar oriented launch profile for the ICBMs. The SLBMs can be positioned in multiple locations for a strike making interception more difficult. To further reduce the chances for interception future missiles might have reduced time of ascent and use more depressed trajectories.
In a more far away future if China does decide to expand their arsenal to a size similar to that of Russia or the US with thousands of warheads then they will likely try to develop missile systems which can approach targets from any direction, possibly even retrograde orbits, to massively spam any defense systems the target might have.
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Yes, I agree with you. China needs at least 1000 nuclear warheads to deter the enemy. China's enemy is not just the US, but whole NATO and EU countries, Japan, India, and five eyes. China's nuclear deterrent is not really can survive against the USA, UK, and France's nuclear first strike.
Hu xi jin is correct
That's why China build two fast breeding reactors (FBR) to produce secret plutonium because China's plutonium reserve is so few.
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escobar
Brigadier
Quote from Xi speech on Science and Technology: Our country is at the forefront of hypersonic weapons
Well thats bold...
Is this a signal that we might see something new soon?..
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Right-winger Bill Gertz who seemed to have inside Pentagon sources regularly reported on China's hypersonic activities. I still haven't heard anyone else fly an unmanned hypersonic vehicle that maneuvered at hypersonic speeds and then land.
antiterror13
Brigadier
What make you think China only have 200 warheads? .... also what make you think China not have over 1,000 warheads?
I am assuming from western medias
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