China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[xyqq]

DF-16 erected:



This variant is for the anti-ship purpose:

 

[SpicySichuan]

I don't understand what is he trying to say He is not worry about thousand chinese nuke? confused Anywa I open some of the link on the article you posted before It is about Chinese nuclear processing capacity Interesting the author said that Chinese reprocessing capacity has expanded over the year contrary to western press that mention one plant was discontinue in the north so their argument Chinese warhead does not grow But that is wrong the plant was discontinue because it used an old soviet era gad diffusion technology while China built newer centrifuge extraction plant and has commission several plant recently. here what he said about theoretical capacity of Chinese uranium processing plant to produce warhead as is now 1870 bomb per year and period 2020 to 2040 72000 bomb

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View attachment 69725

China currently could produce would result in about 37.4 tons of WgHEU each year (about 1870 bombs/year). This is about 2.7 times China’s current inventory of about 14 tons of HEU for weapons. As a projection of China’s enrichment capacity as the medium case shown in figure 4, China could have an enrichment capacity of 16.6 million SWU/year by 2030 and 24 million SWU/year by 2040, respectively, which is equal to producing about 80 tons of weapon-grade HEU per year by 2030 and about 115 tons/year by 2040. The cumulative domestic SWU supply would total about 300 million SWU over the period between 2020 and 2040, sufficient to producing about 1440 tons of weapon-grade HEU (about 72,000 bombs). However, it is impossible for China to shut down its all power reactors and produce such a HEU stock even much more than that of the total of U.S. and Russian stockpiles.

And here are all the plant
View attachment 69726

Just need some basic education here. Most ICBM warheads today use plutonium pit in their primaries (for the initial fission detonation before triggering the fusion). Since China has A LOT MORE uranium than plutonium (with the Jiuquan and Guangyuan plutonium processing plants shut), could the plutonium pit in the fission primaries be replaced with HEU. In other word, could you assemble a working 100-500 kt ICBM warheads (similar to W88 and W87) weighing no more than 300-360kg with zero plutonium input?

 

[escobar]

I don't understand what is he trying to say He is not worry about thousand chinese nuke? confused Anywa I open some of the link on the article you posted before It is about Chinese nuclear processing capacity Interesting the author said that Chinese reprocessing capacity has expanded over the year contrary to western press that mention one plant was discontinue in the north so their argument Chinese warhead does not grow But that is wrong the plant was discontinue because it used an old soviet era gad diffusion technology while China built newer centrifuge extraction plant and has commission several plant recently. here what he said about theoretical capacity of Chinese uranium processing plant to produce warhead as is now 1870 bomb per year and period 2020 to 2040 72000 bomb

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

View attachment 69725

China currently could produce would result in about 37.4 tons of WgHEU each year (about 1870 bombs/year). This is about 2.7 times China’s current inventory of about 14 tons of HEU for weapons. As a projection of China’s enrichment capacity as the medium case shown in figure 4, China could have an enrichment capacity of 16.6 million SWU/year by 2030 and 24 million SWU/year by 2040, respectively, which is equal to producing about 80 tons of weapon-grade HEU per year by 2030 and about 115 tons/year by 2040. The cumulative domestic SWU supply would total about 300 million SWU over the period between 2020 and 2040, sufficient to producing about 1440 tons of weapon-grade HEU (about 72,000 bombs). However, it is impossible for China to shut down its all power reactors and produce such a HEU stock even much more than that of the total of U.S. and Russian stockpiles.

And here are all the plant
View attachment 69726

Too much talk. Count the number delivery vehicle

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Too much talk. Count the number delivery vehicle

How do you count the delivery vehicle they can be easily hidden in cave, tunnel, factory shed you name it unless you are clairvoyant

 

[escobar]

How do you count the delivery vehicle they can be easily hidden in cave, tunnel, factory shed you name it unless you are clairvoyant

You can't because you don't have access to strategic satellite imagery to count silo and vehicle production before they can be hidden. That is why you can't give any number. Some people can.

 

[escobar]

JL-3 SLBM: MIRV with 10000+km from NASIC

The biggest news in the China section of the NASIC report is that the new JL-3 SLBM that will arm the next-generation Type 096 SSBN will be capable of delivering “multiple” warheads and have a range of more than 10,000 kilometers. That is a significant increase in capability compared with the JL-2 SLBM currently deployed on the Jin-class SSBNs and is likely part of the reason for the projection that China’s nuclear stockpile might double over the next decade. Despite this increased range, however, a Type 096 operating from the current SSBN base in the South China Sea would not be able to strike targets in the continental United States. To be able to reach targets in the continental United States, an SSBN would have to launch its missile from the Bohai Sea. That would bring almost one-third of the continental United States within range. To target Washington, DC, however, a Type 096 SSBN would still have to deploy deep into the Pacific.

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[Hendrik_2000]

You can't because you don't have access to strategic satellite imagery to count vehicle production and silo. Some other do
View attachment 69732

That is bull It only show picture factory at one particular moment Did he observed it 365 days and night ? It will be very expensive to do that!

 

[Temstar]

Just need some basic education here. Most ICBM warheads today use plutonium pit in their primaries (for the initial fission detonation before triggering the fusion). Since China has A LOT MORE uranium than plutonium (with the Jiuquan and Guangyuan plutonium processing plants shut), could the plutonium pit in the fission primaries be replaced with HEU. In other word, could you assemble a working 100-500 kt ICBM warheads (similar to W88 and W87) weighing no more than 300-360kg with zero plutonium input?

You could but why would you? Regardless of how much uranium ore you have the end product before enrichment would still be 99.3% U-238. You could always turn this nearly useless product into weapons grade Pu-239 in reactors.

If we don't consider the cost then U-235 is actually better for making bombs because it has lower spontaneous fission rate than weapons grade Pu, hence why Little Boy could get away with gun type device while Fat Man required implosion.

 

[escobar]

That is bull It only show picture factory at one particular moment Did he observed it 365 days and night ? It will be very expensive to do that!

Do you really think DoD could accept to be blind on RU/CN strategic system?
Why do yo think they have those expensive Keyhole/Lacrosse satellite fleet? Now backed with Commercial imagery.

 

[gelgoog]

@Hendrik_2000
Compare those numbers with US numbers for uranium enrichment. The US can't even produce enough uranium for its own civilian reactors, it needs to import fuel from Russia. China also has a fuel reprocessing plant, while the US failed to build theirs and cancelled it. China also has working breeder reactors.