China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread


Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Again, what you are saying certainly has some truth to it. But international relations is never as clear cut and simplistic as you are saying. I have already used the Toshiba CNC sale to the USSR as an example. Remember that happened during the height of the Cold War, back when Japan faces a much more dire and dangerous national security threat (which means that they needed the US back then much more than they do right now, this implies that they were in a much weaker position to object to US demand than right now).
That is right Sometime people forgot Japanese role in Chinese modernization though Japanese thought their assistance is not free or large But they paly important role in technology transfer because in the 60's when China start the modernization of infrastructure. Most of the harbors, railways, airport are built by the Japanese companies. I remembber 16 harbors and 2 electrified trunk line.Power plant etc Latter modern manufacturing move en mass to china again transfer of technology and management.

Even today with semiconductor many japanese semiconductor are supplying Huawei and robotic stepper motor from Fuji.

Certainly the government is toeing to US out of obvious reason But there are in Japan who see that their future will hinge on China and they make preparation for that day specially among the industrialist Keidanren.
 

nugroho

Junior Member
I don't know anything specific about Japan's reactors, but just the fact that they're used to produce power and not weapons-grade plutonium means the plutonium they do produce is contaminated (that's just physics). I'm familiar with the "Japan has a lot of plutonium" meme; American loudmouths often use it to threaten and blackmail China, "If we let Japan off the leash, they'll have thousands of nuclear weapons." I may be misremembering but I have the distinct impression that American officials have used it in the past. Like many memes, it's at best half true.

Unless Japan has science fiction technology to separate Pu-239 from Pu-240, that plutonium is just what it says on the storage barrel: waste.
Found old articles, dated back 2014, were they wrong?
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and

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shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you were Xi and you knew that you are surrounded by very powerful countries and one of them are super power with very advanced military power and ~10,000 warheads and very aggressive to you. And you are almost as rich/big as that super power .. would you be stupid enough to have just 3% of warhead of that aggressive country? And you have more than enough resources to have much more modern warheads.

So by your logic, China building ICBM, SSBN with many many potential warheads and only have 300 warheads ... I don't think China is that stupid. For your info ... one DF-41 can carry 12 MIRV ... perhaps just for a show? o_O

The MIRV cannot remain empty and useful to send dimsum and sweet & sour General Tso chicken and Wulung teabags and cleaned Laundry, express hypersonic delivery to countries that deserved them.

I feel it too tiresome to keep repeating my earlier posts.
other than just one (but that will lead you to the old posts ) China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread


So definately not for show!
 
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The MIRV cannot remain empty and useful to send dimsum and sweet & sour General Tso chicken and Wulung teabags and cleaned Laundry, express hypersonic delivery to countries that deserved them.

I feel it too tiresome to keep repeating my earlier posts.
other than just one (but that will lead you to the old posts ) China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread


So definately not for show!
you don't sense the sarcasm, do you?
 

Mohsin77

Junior Member
Registered Member
Unless Japan has science fiction technology to separate Pu-239 from Pu-240, that plutonium is just what it says on the storage barrel: waste.
Reactor grade plutonium can also be used in nuclear weapons. The US conducted tests to confirm this, which is why it's considered a proliferation concern. (source:
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) Japan also has uranium enrichment facilities and a still-active (and highly controversial) fast breeder reactor program.

So Japan's available weapons-capable stockpile is already massive and a weapons program can be accelerated very quickly. This has been a concern not just for China (which has officially objected to their stockpile) but also Western nations who are uncomfortable with Japan's insistence on holding on to their reserves. Their potential to go nuclear should not be dismissed.

However, the problem for Japan is the age of its population. It's effectively committing demographic seppuku. You can have all the nukes you want, but they're not going to help you if your population pyramid implodes.
 

11226p

New Member
Registered Member
Because I didn't see it on here before, here is what I deem a relatively thourough recent blogpost about the "Mapping the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force" illustrating the rough ORBAT of the PLARF.

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Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
The person that wrote that text assumes 12 launchers in a DF-31 brigade. But is there some evidence for that claim? Have we seen satellite imagery of launchers within one base?
 

11226p

New Member
Registered Member
The person that wrote that text assumes 12 launchers in a DF-31 brigade. But is there some evidence for that claim? Have we seen satellite imagery of launchers within one base?
From what I know most of the tracking of the PLARF is done via satellite analysis of the infrastructure and less so counting the TELs.
Sadly I could not find an image depicting a such a large number at once but from an article about the 70th anniversary parade
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there is an image of supposedly 16 DF-31AGs from 2 brigades so we have a minimum of 8 TELs per brigade. Then again I have no idea how much the usual availability rate for the TELs is and if it is possible to get 12 out of 12 ready for the parade.

But I also have found this from "The Chinese Army Today: Tradition and Transformation for the 21st Century"

chinese army today and transfomation in the 21st century excerpt.png


Apart from this multiple other sources claim that a nuclear arms brigade has anywhere between 6-12 TELs so considering that the article from my original post was posted rougly a month ago it is plausible that there are brigades with 12 TELs even if there might be some with less and that after the enlargement of the PLARF (mostly in IRBMs but still) a good estimate is to assume 12 TELs per ICBM brigade even if you might overshoot a little this way.
 

Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
From what I know most of the tracking of the PLARF is done via satellite analysis of the infrastructure and less so counting the TELs.
Sadly I could not find an image depicting a such a large number at once but from an article about the 70th anniversary parade
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there is an image of supposedly 16 DF-31AGs from 2 brigades so we have a minimum of 8 TELs per brigade. Then again I have no idea how much the usual availability rate for the TELs is and if it is possible to get 12 out of 12 ready for the parade.




Apart from this multiple other sources claim that a nuclear arms brigade has anywhere between 6-12 TELs so considering that the article from my original post was posted rougly a month ago it is plausible that there are brigades with 12 TELs even if there might be some with less and that after the enlargement of the PLARF (mostly in IRBMs but still) a good estimate is to assume 12 TELs per ICBM brigade even if you might overshoot a little this way.
Are you the writer of the text on that blog you linked?

Anyway, while It's possible some (or all? or most?) DF31 brigades do feature 12 launchers, I personally believe there's not enough evidence to make such conclusion. While on the other hand, there is a little bit more circumstantial evidence... well, perhaps not evidence but indications to a 8 missile brigade being either the norm or being more common.

One piece of indication would be the parade quote you mentioned, that two brigades made up the detachment of 16 df-31ag missiles.
Other would be that one image of df31 brigade, a CCTV caption, used in the text on the blog you linked, where the crews and launchers of the brigade were shown. And 8 launchers were visible. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean there weren't 4 more off screen, but such shots are somewhat standard, and we had other units with other missiles featured in similar shots - and the norm seems to be to encompass all or most of the missiles in the shot as well. We had the df-26 unit shot with 13+ launchers visible for example.

Third piece of indication would be the FAS texts (by Kristensen, I assume) over the decades where number of df31 units were mentioned and totals of launchers were mentioned - leading to a 8:1 ratio on launchers to units. Usually FAS claimed one df31 unit and 3 df31a units for a total of 32 missiles. And the df-31 numbers (not df-31a) alone were pretty much always claimed to be at 8 or so launchers.

Anyway, to move away from the launchers per unit issue - the blog post that we're talking about also seems to indicate there's no more df-31 missiles at all. Which would, i suppose, indicate that the unit had its hardware replaced with a newer df-31 variant. What exact evidence is there for the assumption that df-31 got retired? Or re-worked into df-31a/ag system missiles? (that's even assuming AG variant uses different missiles from the A variant) In theory, the AG systems could be added on top of previous df-31 systems. Meaning 1 vanilla df31 unit, 3 df31A units and 2 df31AG units. Of course, if AG is replacing older units then that would not apply.
 

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