China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Ultra

Junior Member
250+ nuclear warhead is wrong anyway

But I agree that 200 is too many, I thought 60 to 75 would be sufficient


60 to 75?
That's way too few to even go against a country (eg. India) with very limited ABM capability.

To counter countries with comprehensive and advanced ABM capabilities you need tens of thousands in my humble opinion.
Saturation attack is the only way to guarantee comprehensive nuclear deterence.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
60 to 75?
That's way too few to even go against a country (eg. India) with very limited ABM capability.

To counter countries with comprehensive and advanced ABM capabilities you need tens of thousands in my humble opinion.
Saturation attack is the only way to guarantee comprehensive nuclear deterence.

Lets be honest here, for all the hype of ABM defenses. It is clear that even the most advanced of them has only been tested in a clinical and sterile scenario. Whether they will perform as expected in a real life scenario is a totally different matter entirely.
And there is the cost to consider, even an incomplete ABM defense system covering critical targets would cost a fortune if it is going to be a comprehensive one. Even extremely wealthy countries like the US can bankrupt themselves by trying to cover the whole of the nation.
And finally there is the matter of overdoing it, for a mega sized city like New York or San Francisco, 4-5 warheads is more than enough to flatten them with an extra to spare, anything more would be plain overkill.
While I agree that 6-75 warheads is a tad bit small, having an arsenal like the US or Russia (7000 total) is just plain unnecessary.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Exacty the Gound based missile defense has only sucess rate of 50% They have been tested for years with no improvement in succes rate. As you said it the way they tested is using the most.optimistic scenario
They way they tested is using the most clinical and sterile scenario of single war head with no penetration aid and hyperbolic profile

Which is nonsense in the real world. To begin with there will be no single warhead instead it will be multiple warheads with penetration aid . To complicate it further they now can use a flat trajectory giving it minimum response time and no way to predict the location of the missile

So haveing thousand of warhead is waste of money. Anyway modern A bomb is hundred times more powerfull than the one drop on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. One of those will flatten large 2 million cities
Now how many large cities with 2 million population in the world?
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Lets be honest here, for all the hype of ABM defenses. It is clear that even the most advanced of them has only been tested in a clinical and sterile scenario. Whether they will perform as expected in a real life scenario is a totally different matter entirely.
And there is the cost to consider, even an incomplete ABM defense system covering critical targets would cost a fortune if it is going to be a comprehensive one. Even extremely wealthy countries like the US can bankrupt themselves by trying to cover the whole of the nation.
And finally there is the matter of overdoing it, for a mega sized city like New York or San Francisco, 4-5 warheads is more than enough to flatten them with an extra to spare, anything more would be plain overkill.
While I agree that 6-75 warheads is a tad bit small, having an arsenal like the US or Russia (7000 total) is just plain unnecessary.

I did say 60 to 75 DF-41s which can have up to 10/11 MIRV ... so the number of warheads on DF-41 force would be potentially over 800 ... and remember China also have DF-5/A/B and DF-31/A/B/AG and others like DF-4 and others
 
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Deleted member 13312

Guest
I did say 60 to 75 DF-41s which can have up to 10/11 MIRV ... so the number of warheads on DF-41 force would be potentially over 800 ... and remember China also have DF-5/A/B and DF-31/A/B/AG and others like DF-4 and others
Well I expect that number to be more than the widely believed 250,and finally when China gets its SSBN fleet online it will need to arm them with warheads, maybe 4-5 MIRV per missile with a total of 90 per boat, that will mean another 720 if China has 8 SSBNs.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Well I expect that number to be more than the widely believed 250,and finally when China gets its SSBN fleet online it will need to arm them with warheads, maybe 4-5 MIRV per missile with a total of 90 per boat, that will mean another 720 if China has 8 SSBNs.

you didn't read my previous posts properly ... did I mention 250 warheads? ... read them to have meaningful further discussion, otherwise I wouldn't want to waste my time :mad::(
 
D

Deleted member 13312

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you didn't read my previous posts properly ... did I mention 250 warheads? ... read them to have meaningful further discussion, otherwise I wouldn't want to waste my time :mad::(

Well I am referring to the often quoted number of 250, which one can find on wikipedia and most journals and news citations like the Federation of American Scientists, as is evidenced by my words "widely believed". Not your number of 850, now I know that forum posts are by nature very confusing to begin with. So lets just read and read each other's posts twice before we jump to conclusions now eh ?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I detect a sense of despair to counter this weapon There is just no antidote to this system . Finally a weapon that fit the epithet of Assassin Mace. From news.com.au. click the link there is video in it
Over at popular mechanic Kyle Myzokami struggle to convince himself that there is such thing as antidote but the article that he cite doesn't say so
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Hypervelocity missile breakthrough makes China the world leader in new weaponry
CHINA has just taken a huge step ahead of the United States in military technology, launching the first hypersonic missile.

Jamie Seidel
THE world has just entered a new phase of warfare.

It’s one where no potential target is safe.

It’s one where reaction times are miniscule.

It’s one where the United States not longer holds the technical lead.


China has just successfully conducted flight tests of the production model of what is called the DF-17 ballistic missile. What makes this weapon different to other ballistic missiles is that it is designed to carry what is known as a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV).

“Hypersonic missiles are a new class of threat because they are capable both of manoeuvring and of flying faster than 5000 kilometres per hour, which would enable such missiles to penetrate most missile defences and to further compress the timelines for response by a nation under attack,” a
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warns.

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Images released by Chinese state-run media show what appear to be a hypervelocity glide vehicles, similar to two successfully tested by new intercontinental ballistic missiles in November.Source:Supplied

These gliders are finely engineered, arrow-shaped craft capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads at incredible speeds. They travel so fast through the atmosphere (greater than 5000km/h) they must be built to withstand temperatures that would melt meteors, and must be engineered perfectly to avoid tumbling wildly out of control.

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But not only can they travel unbelievably fast, they may also be able to guide themselves towards an intended target.

This renders almost all current missile defence systems obsolete.


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A Chinese state-media image representing its anti-ship Ballistic Missiles in action.Source:Supplied

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as confirming the recent test launch of two of the missiles — one on November 1, and another on November 15.

“The missile is explicitly designed for operational HGV implementation and not as a test bed,” the source told The Diplomat. It was “the first HGV test in the world using a system intended to be fielded operationally”.

The tests had been timed shortly after the Communist Party’s 19th Party Congress in October where President Xi Jinping cemented his hold on power.

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An artist's impression by the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) showing its Falcon Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 being deployed from an ICBM.Source:AP

LEAPING AHEAD

The first missile was reportedly launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Center in Inner Mongolia. The DF-17 ballistic missile boosted the glide vehicle to hypersonic speeds during its re-entry phase. This then detached before the unpowered glider used its momentum and height to travel the remainder of the 1400km to a test range in Xinjian Privince in just 11 minutes before it struck within meters of its target.

US intelligence agencies reportedly believe the ballistic missile / hypervelocity glider combination has a maximum range of between 1800 and 2500km. They expect fully operational examples to be deployed by 2020.

It marks the end of a successful experimentation program which began in 2014. China had conducted seven known hypersonic vehicle tests before November.

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An image released by Chinese state-run media showing what appears to be a hypervelocity glide vehicle undergoing testing in a wind tunnel.Source:Supplied

In October, images of what Beijing-controlled state media described as a hypersonic glide vehicles were released for the first time. It is not known if any represent the glider carried by the new DF-17 ballistic missile, or earlier test craft.

China is by no means the only nation striving to achieve a functional and reliable hypervelocity missile. Russia has been working on its 3M22 Zircon, planning to deploy the weapon system aboard two of its enormous battlecruisers — the Pyotr Velikyi and Admiral Nakhimov — and its next-generations of submarine.

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The United States has also been working on its own designs, as has Australia.
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.

But many developmental tests in recent years by the US, Russia and other nations have ended in failure.

Only China appears to have reached the point of mass producing such a weapon.
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
I would not say that the US's hypersonic researches have ended in failure, but more likely the US have other priorities to pursue first. Policies too plays and important part as it takes significant political willpower to support such long term projects.
As for Russia it is always the same old problem, not enough rubles.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
LETHAL WEAPON

Apart from its speed, what makes a hypervelocity glider such a desirable new weapon is its flat trajectory.

Conventional ballistic missiles follow a predictable loop. It slowly picks up speed as it arcs upwards before plunging back down above an intended target.

This profile makes it vulnerable in its slow boost phase. But the trajectory it follows as it comes back down is also within the capabilities of interceptors positioned near the target, such as the US THAAD and SM6 systems, to rise up and meet it.

A ballistic missile carrying a hypersonic glider can re-enter the atmosphere at a much greater distance, and at a complicating angle, before loosing its hypervelocity glider to fly towards the target at a much lower altitude.


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Other forms of hypervelocity missile can carry their own RAM or SCRAM jet motors.Source:Supplied

Radars will have less time to detect it because of the curve of the Earth. Its approach angle is less predictable, potentially making it a much harder target for interceptor systems.

But hypervelocity gliders have one drawback. They glide. This means they steadily burn-off speed. The further the warhead must travel towards its target, the slower it is upon arrival. This could make them vulnerable to new-generation point-defence systems (short range missiles and guns designed to protect a specific object, such as a ship).

Self-propelled hypervelocity craft are, however, in development. These suck air into a ramjet or scramjet engine to maintain their speed after being boosted by an ICBM.


Hypersonic missile proliferation
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PROLIFERATION POTENTIAL

A recent report by international think-tank the RAND Corporation warned the race to develop hypersonic weapons has ominous implications.

“Their proliferation … could result in other powers setting their strategic forces on hair-trigger states of readiness — such as a strategy of ‘launch on warning’ ,”
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. “And such proliferation could enable other powers to more credibly threaten attacks on major powers.

Such proliferation is already underway, it warns.

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Australia, Japan, India and European nations have already begun the design and testing of hypersonic technologies.

The RAND report called on major players to formulate and sign an international non-proliferation agreement, blocking the export of complete hypersonic missile systems and their components as well as controlling related hardware and technology exchanges.

“There is probably less than a decade available to substantially hinder the potential proliferation of hypersonic missiles and associated technologies,” it warns.
 
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