AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

Lethe

Captain
In
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
lengthy article, Hugh White casts foreign minister Penny Wong as a pivotal figure in Australia's evolving approach to the US-China rivalry:

For Wong the correct response to this fundamental power shift is clear. Australia should seek a multipolar order in Asia, she has said, “a multipolar region in which the United States remains deeply and constructively engaged; in which China is a positive contributor; and in which the perspectives and contributions of smaller powers are respected and valued.” That means finding what she called “a settling point” between what she sees as two equally unsustainable extremes: continued US primacy on the one hand, or Chinese hegemony on the other. She was quite explicit about this when she spoke in Jakarta. She rejected “the notion of a binary choice: that the only alternatives are accepting a Chinese-led regional order or unconditional support for US-defined strategic competition with Beijing”. I have italicised that last clause because it so precisely expresses Wong’s repudiation, when she was in Opposition, of the approach that the Albanese government is now taking [....]

These days, Wong no longer talks of a multipolar order in Asia. She talks instead of the search for “strategic equilibrium” in the region. And she won’t be drawn on the role America should play in that strategic equilibrium. She will not now say, as she did in 2019, that America cannot sustain its old unipolar leadership role, nor that it will need to acknowledge a larger leadership role for China. Indeed, she now prefers to avoid talking about the contest between America and China as much as possible, arguing that it is not the key factor in shaping the regional order. She used to understand very clearly that it is, on the contrary, the critical factor. She will not be drawn on how far her vision of regional equilibrium differs from America’s objectives, ignoring the clear evidence that America aims to maintain the position of primacy that she has in the past plainly said was unsustainable. Wong no longer seems convinced that Australia does not face and should not make a binary choice between America and China.

I have nothing to say against Penny Wong, but if we are relying on particularly insightful individuals to make the case for Australia not following Washington into the nuclear abyss, then we are really fucked. If there is no institutional background from which such persons consistently emerge, no configurations of power and interests that sustain them, then they are likely to be ephemeral and inconsequential. On the other side of the ledger, there are certainly deep and well-resourced roots fueling an endless series of "all the way with USA" automatons.
 
Last edited:

HighGround

Junior Member
Registered Member
In
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
lengthy article, Hugh White casts foreign minister Penny Wong as a pivotal figure in Australia's evolving approach to the US-China rivalry:



I have nothing to say against Penny Wong, but if we are relying on particularly insightful individuals to make the case for Australia not following Washington into the nuclear abyss, then we are really fucked. If there is no institutional background from which such persons consistently emerge, no configurations of power and interests that sustain them, then they are likely to be ephemeral and inconsequential. On the other side of the ledger, there are certainly deep and well-resourced roots fueling an endless series of "all the way with USA" automatons.
I largely agree with her views, which this paragraph sums up nicely I think.

"For Wong the correct response to this fundamental power shift is clear. Australia should seek a multipolar order in Asia, she has said, “a multipolar region in which the United States remains deeply and constructively engaged; in which China is a positive contributor; and in which the perspectives and contributions of smaller powers are respected and valued.” That means finding what she called “a settling point” between what she sees as two equally unsustainable extremes: continued US primacy on the one hand, or Chinese hegemony on the other. She was quite explicit about this when she spoke in Jakarta. She rejected “the notion of a binary choice: that the only alternatives are accepting a Chinese-led regional order or unconditional support for US-defined strategic competition with Beijing”. I have italicised that last clause because it so precisely expresses Wong’s repudiation, when she was in Opposition, of the approach that the Albanese government is now taking."

This is the same issue with United States. An inherent belief that a confrontation with China is inevitable to defend the "liberal world order", whatever the hell that means anymore.
 

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Perth SSN Gateway to Indian Ocean.jpg
If you think about SEA archipelagos as GIUK then Indian Ocean can become the Atlantic. It's not about the SSNs it's about the infrastructure for SSNs. That infrastructure [in Perth Australia] will be ready before [Australia's] Virginias enter service in 2030s and will be ensured by rotation of USN and RN SSNs.

Prediction: AUKUS is preparation for inevitable ceding of territory. It is about providing the pivot point for shifting of strategy toward one that won't need US to force Australia against its perceived national interest. No point in pushing a country into war if war can be brought to it. Again - think Ukraine and Poland/EU. Australians won't matter because they will never have to make the decision.

And as for why France had to be cut out of it.

France d'Outre-Mer
View attachment 109238
French territories in the Indian Ocean have a population of over 1 million (Reunion, Mayotte) and the French Southern and Antarctic Land are open to military infrastructure if necessary.

It's about ensuring a physical foothold in a crucial waterway. UK has a leash. France for all that we may think of it has a much larger degree of independence which is why it's kept out of Five Eyes for example. And France has influence in the EU which brings in comparable economic potential.

Think about the 42 Rafales that Indonesia bought. That's a sign where many countries in SEA see themselves - not party to either US or China. And that can't be allowed. Therefore any actor that can bring in additional options must be eliminated.
Thank you for this post. It explains so much, including why Macron was feted by Xi for three days this week. I'm sure their ministers discussed economic and military investments in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The Ukraine conflict is important but it's a cat's paw. The Taiwan conflict is important but it's a cat's paw. The great power conflict is the Indian Ocean with Southeast Asia to the northeast; Middle East-North Africa to the northwest; East Africa to the west; and all the riches of the world passing through it.

An easy-read starting point for more information is
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Be sure to click on the interactive map.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I swear this f...ng Richard Heydarian dude is just hella embarrassing in the way he's been simping and cucking hard for U.S. Philippine exceptionalism? What? that statement alone should have this guy's so-called professorship be revoked. The dude is nothing more but an American stenographer it's not a surprise since the man also simps and cucks for ASPI and other western publications and think tanks where he can lend his unoriginal insights, gordon chang takes, and Jai hind like bravado when it comes to the non-existent power and influence of the Philippines in the world of geopolitics.
 

Lethe

Captain
Paul Keating is a fighter until the end. Today at the National Press Club he delivered prepared remarks lambasting the AUKUS pact and answered questions on the same subject.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



In
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
lengthy article, Hugh White casts foreign minister Penny Wong as a pivotal figure in Australia's evolving approach to the US-China rivalry:

Today foreign minister Penny Wong addressed the National Press Club and outlined her vision for a "strategic equilibrium" in Asia.


A great power like China uses every tool at its disposal to maximise its own resilience and influence, its domestic industry policy, its massive international investment in infrastructure, diplomacy and military capability, access to its markets.

This state craft illustrates the challenge for middle powers like us and our partners in South-East Asia and the Pacific. Yet, we need not waste energy with shock or outrage at China seeking to its advantage. Instead, we have to channel our energy in pressing for our own advantage.

We deploy our own statecraft towards shaping a region that is open, stable and prosperous. A predictable region operating by agreed rules, standards and rules where no country dominates and no country is dominated. A region where sovereignty is respected and all countries benefit from a strategic equilibrium. A region that safeguards our capacity to disagree. A region that preserves our agency. A region that protects our ability to decide our own destiny.

I haven't listened to the full speech yet, but I note that none of the excerpts quoted by The Guardian address the point raised by Hugh White: "She will not be drawn on how far her vision of regional equilibrium differs from America’s objectives."

On Keating's comments:

In that speech, he said running around the Pacific Islands with a lei around your neck, handing out money, is not foreign policy, it is a consular task. This was criticism of you by one of your own side. I was wondering were you forewarned that Mr Keating was going to be making those comments and have you spoken to Mr Keating since?

Wong: You can probably work that out for yourself [....] on Mr Keating, what I would say is this - I think in tone and substance, he diminished both his legacy and the subject matter.

Of course Keating was ready with a retort...

In a statement, Keating has said he “never expected more than platitudes from [Wong’s] press club speech” and he was “not disappointed”:

Keating: "In facing the great challenge of our time, a super-state resident in continental Asia and an itinerant naval power seeking to maintain primacy – the foreign minister was unable to nominate a single piece of strategic statecraft by Australia that would attempt a solution for both powers.

Instead, Penny Wong actually went out of her way to turn her back on what she disparaged as ‘black and white’ binary choices, speaking platitudinally about keeping ‘the balance of power’, but having not a jot of an idea as to how this might be achieved."

As a middle power, Australia is now straddling a strategic divide, a divide rapidly becoming every bit as rigid as that which obtained in Europe in 1914. Australia’s major foreign policy task is to soften that rigidity by encouraging both the United States and China to find common cause and benefit in a peaceful and prosperous Pacific. Nothing Penny Wong said today, on Australia’s behalf, adds one iota of substance to that urgent task."
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I swear this f...ng Richard Heydarian dude is just hella embarrassing in the way he's been simping and cucking hard for U.S. Philippine exceptionalism? What? that statement alone should have this guy's so-called professorship be revoked. The dude is nothing more but an American stenographer it's not a surprise since the man also simps and cucks for ASPI and other western publications and think tanks where he can lend his unoriginal insights, gordon chang takes, and Jai hind like bravado when it comes to the non-existent power and influence of the Philippines in the world of geopolitics.
Bro, he need to earn his keep....lol he is a mouthpieces and like to talk pretty in English even though what he is sprouting are nonsense since his audience are not the locals BUT the elites and foreigners. :p
 

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Australia is moving forward
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


This accelerated militarisation includes the upgrading of RAAF Tindal [Northern Australia] to accommodate U.S. B52 nuclear-capable bombers and the building of huge fuel storage and aircraft maintenance facilities in the Northern Territory for the exclusive use of U.S. forces. It also includes the upgrading at Australian taxpayer’s expense of the port and maintenance facilities at Cockburn Sound in Western Australia for the berthing and servicing of U.S. and U.K. nuclear submarines. ... This proposed amendment would state that the authority to deploy Australia military forces overseas be vested in the Governor-General under Section 68 of the Constitution rather than the PM relying on the Defence Act for this authority. Section 68 designates the Governor-General as commander-in-chief of the defence forces. The Governor-General acts on the advice of the PM and his national security cabinet. The stated “justification” for this change was that in the case of illegal wars, meaning ones not authorised by the United Nations, having the Governor-General send the troops to war could get the Prime Minister, Defence Chiefs and troops off the hook if the International Criminal Court investigated allegations of “war crimes”. Dr Alison Broinowski, president of Australians for War Powers Reform, has commented that a
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
would be just such an illegal war..
 
Top