AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.


AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Paul Keating is the Nick Kyrgios of Australian Politics. Always entertaining, but of declining relevance.

//tennis reference
//Australian Open 2022

Liz Truss has a nickname. It's "the Human Hand Grenade"
Now she has gone off about attacking Iran for not adhering to the nuclear deal. But 4 years ago, Trump actually walked away from the deal, to the disappointment of the UK.

Demented is the correct description for recent statements from Liz Truss.

Liz Truss: the ‘human hand grenade’ Tories have taken to their hearts
theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/20/liz-truss-the-human-hand-grenade-tories-have-taken-to-their-hearts

If Iran talks don't revive JCPOA, all options on table - UK's Liz Truss
jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-694530

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I would also bet money that Paul Keating will be proved correct when we look back in 10 years time.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
That doesn't change a bit about the obvious made up narrative of Vietnam being a threat. We are talking about that China here that tried to invade Vietnam for purely geopolitical (read imperialistic) goals in SEA.

You're still dodging the question.

Who first started building islands in the South China Seas first. China or Vietnam?
Vietnam can't really complain that China can do the same thing, but on a much bigger scale.

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Plus remember what happened in the runup to the Sino-Vietnamese war.
Back then, Vietnam had decided to firmly align itself with the USSR against Chinese interests.
And from the historical records, we can see Deng Xiaoping (and by extension the rest of the government) firmly believed that Vietnam was being controlled by the USSR.

And at that time, China was aligned with the USA against the USSR.
So when the Sino-Vietnamese war happened, no one in the West or Asia protested very loudly.
In fact, they were either tacitly supporters or were indifferent.

There are many lessons in this story
 

Overbom

Colonel
Registered Member
For an analysis of what AUKUS is, and might be, see:
I see AUKUS as an Asia- focused wannabe-NATO at this point.

Normal NATO = contain Russia
AUKUS = contain China

Ofc AUKUS is new so not many structures have been developed yet. In the following years the US will try to make AUKUS be more of a NATO-like organisation
 

SAC

Junior Member
Registered Member
I see AUKUS as an Asia- focused wannabe-NATO at this point.

Normal NATO = contain Russia
AUKUS = contain China

Ofc AUKUS is new so not many structures have been developed yet. In the following years the US will try to make AUKUS be more of a NATO-like organisation
As the briefing suggests, AUKUS is about countering China. Possibly becoming an Indo-Pacific NATO. See this for a relevant description:
 

FangYuan

Junior Member
Registered Member
That doesn't change a bit about the obvious made up narrative of Vietnam being a threat. We are talking about that China here that tried to invade Vietnam for purely geopolitical (read imperialistic) goals in SEA.

You're still dodging the question.

Who first started building islands in the South China Seas first. China or Vietnam?
Vietnam can't really complain that China can do the same thing, but on a much bigger scale.

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Plus remember what happened in the runup to the Sino-Vietnamese war.
Back then, Vietnam had decided to firmly align itself with the USSR against Chinese interests.
And from the historical records, we can see Deng Xiaoping (and by extension the rest of the government) firmly believed that Vietnam was being controlled by the USSR.

And at that time, China was aligned with the USA against the USSR.
So when the Sino-Vietnamese war happened, no one in the West or Asia protested very loudly.
In fact, they were either tacitly supporters or were indifferent.

There are many lessons in this story

Before 1975, North Vietnam was an ally with China and the Soviet Union
After 1975, Vietnam was an ally with the Soviet Union and against China


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Before 1975, North Vietnam needed aid from two nations, to fight South Vietnam and the United States

After April 30, 1975, the north and the south united.

- At the time, the Soviet Union was a superpower, China was the third world nation, and the two countries had many conflicts. If Vietnam shows a clear attitude, sided with the Soviet Union, Vietnam will receive more benefits.

- Another reason is the South China Sea (Vietnam calls it "EAST SEA/Biển Đông"). China claims all of the South China Sea. Before 1975, North Vietnam did not object because North Vietnam needed aid from China, but after 1975 it was different. Many small islands in the South China Sea are occupied by South Vietnam. North Vietnam defeated South Vietnam, they felt that the winner should receive all the assets from the loser. The South China Sea has many resources, no one rejects this benefit.

Therefore, Vietnam claims sovereignty over the South China Sea(Biển Đông) and is ready to conflict with China. Lê Duẩn believes that with the support of the Soviet Union, Vietnam will win. Seizing property and deporting people of Chinese origin (người gốc Hoa/Hoa Kiều) are the first thing he does.

Eventually, the two nations from allies, became enemies.

Many people believe that: China and Vietnam became enemies starting in 1979. This is a mistake. The problem started in 1975 and may be before 1975
 
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sndef888

Senior Member
Registered Member
I feel like in the very recent few years we've seen a huge attitude change in the Vietnamese government toward China. Feels like maybe a secret deal has been negotiated between the leadership
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I feel like in the very recent few years we've seen a huge attitude change in the Vietnamese government toward China. Feels like maybe a secret deal has been negotiated between the leadership


Over the past years, Vietnam has tried to resist or go against Chinese wishes numerous times.
But I can't remember a single episode where they didn't get humiliated afterwards by the Chinese response.
During numerous fishing boat militia incidents, they have to back down because the Chinese bring in a bigger force.
That discredits those advocating for such policies.

Plus they've nurtured such anti-Chinese views amongst the population that if something happens, it is very difficult for the Vietnamese government to back down.

It is also increasingly obvious to the Vietnamese government that they will have to live with a China which will be even more powerful than the USA.

And as we see with Canada, Mexico or Cuba, openly going against the US has serious consequences due to the power disparity.
 

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