AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It is questionable if more submarines are the right choice for the future. What would they possibly change in the strategic equation? Japan's weakness lies entirely in its geography and economy. It's a case of Taiwan - just on a larger scale. Japan can double or even triple their navy and it won't matter.

I've seen comparisons between Japan and Britain but Britain's rise in the 19th century happened on the back of unprecedented industrial and economic growth. Britain in 19th century was a growing economic power and it improved its position globally in the same way that America did in the 20th century also on the back of rapid economic growth. Japan is a declining economic power past its historical peak.

As the balance of power in western Pacific shifts Japanese security interest will follow the economic shift toward China. Japan is not a meaningful adversary for China because that has to come from natural economic potential. If Japan retains its alignment with the US then a more likely outcome is a breakup of the nominal alliance between Japan and Korea which exists under their vassalage to Washington. Korea will naturally shift toward China and Japan may choose an adversarial stance against Korea as these two occupy the same political, economic and military space. Korea would become a proxy tool for China and Japan a proxy tool for America.

Yes

In the 8 year period from 2011-2019, China added approximately $10 Trillion in economic output, which is the equivalent of 2 Japans. As per the World Bank

If China grows by an average of 6% per year for the next 10 years, China would add $22 Trillion in economic output
That is the economic equivalent of 4 Japans or another USA.


Furthermore the key to any long-term strategy against China is Russia. As long as Russia remains neutral toward China the shift in the balance of power toward China will continue. The only thing that can stop it is a change in geopolitical attitude in Moscow which at this moment doesn't seem likely. It may happen in the 30s as China's economic expansion continues but I doubt it would be openly adversarial as the preferred partners for Moscow in balancing Chinese influence are the European and west Asian countries, not America. If America weakens sufficiently that Russia can renegotiate its relationship with Europe it might also choose to renegotiate its relationship with Japan. This would lead to an Orwellian scenario of Eastasia vs Eurasia vs Oceania which matches resource producers with capital producers in a manner that is stable in the long term and paradoxically beneficial to everyone as it would be sustainable. The current situation is precarious because American hegemony is not sustainable. It therefore has natural dynamic toward correction which America will attempt to prevent through war.

Russia is locked in a battle over Ukraine, which is only 450km from Moscow and the rest of the core Russian motherland (the Rodina)
That distance could be crossed in a single battle. Plus an extension of the EU to Russia's border would further turn Russia into a resource appendage dependent on the EU. And remember the EU is economically 10x larger than Russia

So I don't see how Ukraine can be resolved.
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
And remember the EU is economically 10x larger than Russia

Good luck on getting all the EU countries to agree on anything, though. The US hasn't been able to bully Germany out of Nordstream; Spain, for all their posturing, still buys tons of gas from Russia; France and Italy will gladly deal with Russia and most of their actions against them seems lip service and barely meaningful.

The really problematic ones are the nazi-loving geopolitical chihuahuas of the Baltics, Poland and Hungary, but their weight within the EU is limited.

I could easily see them trying to pull a Brexit if the US told them to, making them even more irrelevant.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Indonesia and Malaysia against AUKUS

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Indonesia and Malaysia jointly amplify warning about AUKUS pact
October 18, 2021
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AUKUS, China Sea Tensions Put Indonesia in Tight Spot, Analysts Say
October 23, 2021
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Chinese, Indonesia FMs voice serious concerns over AUKUS nuclear submarine deal
October 30, 2021
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Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
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In a pre cursor to Auskus talks between Aus and indo, fishing boat incident occured where indonesian boats were burned. I wasn't hoping for much but I didn't expect indonesia to back down so quickly. Why so weak? Disappointed. I guess they won't put too much dissent against Auskus anyway.
I think its the Sydney Morning Herald that's misleading in saying that "Indonesia is backing down". Upon closer reading, this is what actually happened:

News of Australian authorities’ torching of three boats intercepted last month near Rowley Shoals, about 260 kilometres west of Broome, was not received well in the Indonesian capital.

It prompted the
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aimed at preventing illegal fishing as it sought an explanation for the boats’ destruction.

However, as Foreign Minister Marise Payne stopped off in Jakarta on Wednesday and announced Australia was donating another 7.5 million vaccine doses to Indonesia, officials had adopted a more conciliatory tone.
A spokesman for the Indonesian agency told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age the Jawline-Arafura patrols with Australia would be resuming following talks with Australian Border Force.

“At the moment, we are discussing when the joint patrol can resume because the bottom line is that both institutions have a long track of cooperation in patrolling illegal practices in fishing areas,” spokesman Didik Agus Suwarno said.

“We have received the information we need related to the incident.”

Basically. Indonesia was not happy at first, and asked for an explanation from Australia. Australia's Foreign Minister then visited Jakarta and explained to them (the vaccine donations is just a show). Indonesia was satisfied with the answer, and ties return back to normal. This is not too dissimilar to what happened between ASEAN states. Indonesia and Vietnam burned each other's fishing boats several times before. There was some outrage, and then things go back to normal.

This "Indonesia backing down" thing is arrogant Australian right-wing talk. They wanna make sound like Indonesia is submitting to Australia. Well, no, Indonesia is actually just doing standard diplomacy. That doesn't mean that Indonesia trusts Australia. Afterall, Australia is Indonesia's biggest security threat. Australia have meddled into East Timor and have been caught spying on Indonesian leaders.
 

Lethe

Captain
Paul Keating has criticised many of the spoken and unspoken assumptions of AUKUS and its associated nuclear submarines, complete with his usual entertaining rhetorical flourishes:

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The former Australian prime minister Paul Keating has denounced the US- and UK-backed plan for nuclear-powered submarines as “like throwing a handful of toothpicks at the mountain”, declaring Australia should avoid being drawn into a war with China.

The former Labor leader on Wednesday accused the major Australian political parties of losing their way on foreign policy, while dismissing the credibility of the UK’s “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific region.

“Britain is like an old theme park sliding into the Atlantic compared to modern China,” said Keating, who was Australia’s prime minister from 1991 to 1996."

Keating also played down criticism of China’s militarisation of disputed features in the South China Sea by saying “big powers are rude”, and said it would be wrong to insist the increasingly dominant economic power could be only “a stakeholder” in a US-led system.

While he said Beijing was “in the adolescent phase of their diplomacy” and had “testosterone running everywhere”, Australia had no alternative but to engage with an increasingly powerful China.

Keating said Australia “should not be drawn into a military engagement over Taiwan, US sponsored or otherwise” because Taiwan was “not a vital Australian interest”.

Keating argued the foreign policy debate in Australia was now driven by “the spooks” in the security agencies, and when it came to the major foreign policy choices the Coalition and Labor were “fundamentally not up to it”.

He said the party he once led should not have been so quick to support the government’s submarine decision; it should have used the cover of the agreed 18-month study period to consider the right choice for Australia.

“Instead of that, Labor gets a briefing one night, and by 11 o’clock the next morning, they’re in the car,” he said.

He said Labor’s foreign affairs spokesperson, Penny Wong, had opted for a “reasonably quiet political life” by effectively taking the position that “there shouldn’t be an ounce of daylight between her and the Liberal party” on foreign policy.

“You have no big disputes, because you’re glued up on to the government, but you make no national progress,” he said.

Describing the UK as an "old theme park sliding into the Atlantic" has to be up there among his best lines. I'm currently playing Age of Empires IV and its colourful recreations of battles in medieval England and Normandy make that line seem particularly apt.
 
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getready

Senior Member
I think its the Sydney Morning Herald that's misleading in saying that "Indonesia is backing down". Upon closer reading, this is what actually happened:




Basically. Indonesia was not happy at first, and asked for an explanation from Australia. Australia's Foreign Minister then visited Jakarta and explained to them (the vaccine donations is just a show). Indonesia was satisfied with the answer, and ties return back to normal. This is not too dissimilar to what happened between ASEAN states. Indonesia and Vietnam burned each other's fishing boats several times before. There was some outrage, and then things go back to normal.

This "Indonesia backing down" thing is arrogant Australian right-wing talk. They wanna make sound like Indonesia is submitting to Australia. Well, no, Indonesia is actually just doing standard diplomacy. That doesn't mean that Indonesia trusts Australia. Afterall, Australia is Indonesia's biggest security threat. Australia have meddled into East Timor and have been caught spying on Indonesian leaders.
I see. Thanks. It was kinda misleading. I guess there was no point kicking up a fuss about this. The fishing issue has been an old issue that is ongoing and it is unlikely this will interfere with aukus talks anyway.
 

5unrise

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Australia would join US to defend Taiwan, defence minister says

  • Peter Dutton said it ‘would be inconceivable’ for Canberra not to support Washington
  • Secretary of State Blinken said earlier this week the US and its allies would take unspecified ‘action’ if Taiwan were attacked
I think the title speaks for itself, so I won't add more. Is this threat credible? If so, how should Beijing view and deal with Australia going forward?

 
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