AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.


4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
To me, this AUKUS drama means nothing to China. But US, AU, UK, NATO, EU, Asia will perceive what they think they are getting from this reality show.

Chinese already know that US/UK/Canada/AU/NZ are first cousins, especially when push comes to shove. There is already the five-eyes for decades. Like our social life, you only share secrets with your closest ones. Anything meaningful above five-eyes to me must be in the ballpark of becoming a 52nd state. The nuclear submarines? It actually make some sense from US/UK/AU perspectives.

Back when the AU/FR submarine deal was announced, many military technology fans like us were genuinely surprised that AU did not go with JP. This US/UK/AU deal is not what AU actually needs. It is all about what US wants under the circumstance that US has realized that it cannot win the arms race with China alone. This AUKUS deal is essentially an AU division of nuclear submarines of the US navy, period. Anyone thinks that AU wants or desires to challenge China on its own weight is down right insane, regardless of any types of submarines. The net result to China is that US just got a few more nuclear submarines without paying for them. No more, no less. So what is the difference if US simply prints more money to build a few more and station them in AU? Nothing, really. Therefore, the net effect of this AUKUS drama practically means nothing to China, given the current circumstance vis-a-vis US.

Now onto other parties.

Biden admin wins quite a few PR points as well as mitigates some budge constraints.

AU is the biggest winner. It gets the better submarines. It gets more love from US.

UK wins beautifully. It costs almost nothing. It gets more love from US. it may get a piece of the pie.

US/UK/AU could win more if they can share the development/production costs for their next generation subs.

France is the biggest loser. This is a once in a lifetime deal. France has lost a significant financial win. France has lost face. And it could be bad for Macron's reelection.

EU is embarrassed again. This deal is another evidence that EU is a second-class ally, just like Japan and Korea.

Macron is right. NATO is brain dead.

India is India again. When it comes to substances, anglos keep to themselves. QUAD is just a convenient stick to China's eyes. US is not going to share anything real with India.

Indonesia is alarmed.

Japan and Korea will always love US no matter what.

This has very little effect on Russia, if not at all.

The rest of the planet is just "meh".

Back to China, it just gains another ammunition to counter the threat theory. And it also gains anther rallying cry to counter the US containment.

Oh, last but not the least, MSM just got another news cycle.

This is just a perfect world, until some idiots destroy it.
 

Maikeru

Junior Member
Registered Member
To me, this AUKUS drama means nothing to China. But US, AU, UK, NATO, EU, Asia will perceive what they think they are getting from this reality show.

Chinese already know that US/UK/Canada/AU/NZ are first cousins, especially when push comes to shove. There is already the five-eyes for decades. Like our social life, you only share secrets with your closest ones. Anything meaningful above five-eyes to me must be in the ballpark of becoming a 52nd state. The nuclear submarines? It actually make some sense from US/UK/AU perspectives.

Back when the AU/FR submarine deal was announced, many military technology fans like us were genuinely surprised that AU did not go with JP. This US/UK/AU deal is not what AU actually needs. It is all about what US wants under the circumstance that US has realized that it cannot win the arms race with China alone. This AUKUS deal is essentially an AU division of nuclear submarines of the US navy, period. Anyone thinks that AU wants or desires to challenge China on its own weight is down right insane, regardless of any types of submarines. The net result to China is that US just got a few more nuclear submarines without paying for them. No more, no less. So what is the difference if US simply prints more money to build a few more and station them in AU? Nothing, really. Therefore, the net effect of this AUKUS drama practically means nothing to China, given the current circumstance vis-a-vis US.

Now onto other parties.

Biden admin wins quite a few PR points as well as mitigates some budge constraints.

AU is the biggest winner. It gets the better submarines. It gets more love from US.

UK wins beautifully. It costs almost nothing. It gets more love from US. it may get a piece of the pie.

US/UK/AU could win more if they can share the development/production costs for their next generation subs.

France is the biggest loser. This is a once in a lifetime deal. France has lost a significant financial win. France has lost face. And it could be bad for Macron's reelection.

EU is embarrassed again. This deal is another evidence that EU is a second-class ally, just like Japan and Korea.

Macron is right. NATO is brain dead.

India is India again. When it comes to substances, anglos keep to themselves. QUAD is just a convenient stick to China's eyes. US is not going to share anything real with India.

Indonesia is alarmed.

Japan and Korea will always love US no matter what.

This has very little effect on Russia, if not at all.

The rest of the planet is just "meh".

Back to China, it just gains another ammunition to counter the threat theory. And it also gains anther rallying cry to counter the US containment.

Oh, last but not the least, MSM just got another news cycle.

This is just a perfect world, until some idiots destroy it.
Just to add the monumental unlikelihood of AU - a country with ZERO nuclear industry, a negligible shipbuilding industry, and small general manufacturing sector ever actually getting SSN's into service. AU (understandably) wanted out of the farcical Attack class contract, the only solid commitment in AUKUS is an 18 month "assessment phase", after which the project will probably cancelled and AU can buy Soryu or its successor off the shelf which is what it should have done in the first place.
 

Dolcevita

Captain
Australia shares much in common with Rhodesia and apartheid era South Africa, such as having "extraterritorial" territories where domestic law doesn't apply (bantustans) where they shove minorities.

Australia is actually a more efficient version of Rhodesia and SA. Australia actually succeeded in genociding the so-called "Savage" native aborigine.
 
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