ANU Professor Chengxin Pan points out the brutishness of anglo "foreign policy".
Basically, it's like a mafiosi demanding protection money. Or else.
ANU Professor Chengxin Pan points out the brutishness of anglo "foreign policy".
Basically, it's like a mafiosi demanding protection money. Or else.
An abundance of caution is what separates us from the rest.
It is why the output from here, and why certain people here are able to exert outsize influence on certain PLA watching and China related topics.
You can discuss what you wish, but based on my experience and activities, there are significant benefits to exercising caution and avoiding being blase about certain topics and possibilities.
I also believe there are certain types of things which benefits the community as a whole, and its overall credibility, if they are actively not discussed until certain thresholds are met.
But obviously that isn't a rule for SDF or anything like that, and is merely a suggestion based on my own experience here and on other boards and in the general military watching community.
Yes, but that abundance of caution also drops the activity and output in the "respectable" threads to near zero. It would be instructive to look at the traffic this site gets to the MCR threads and compare it to the serious discussion; I'm not sure if as a mod here you have access to that data, but even a cursory examination of the "latest posts" should give an indication.
You might agree with me that PLA watching is entering a winter. The Xi filter is a formidable one, especially for those who crave certainty and exactitude out of an abundance of caution (and perhaps other reputational concerns). Here's my suggestion for how to address things: Prominent members who are able to exert outsize influence should take the opportunity to go through the historical data we do have and summarize our best state of knowledge on the various systems now in service (where we can compare predictions with how things turned out) and those about to enter.
I actually wanted to do this myself, and a while back I suggested a "whitelist" feature where only posts by selected members (perhaps those the user follows) would be visible. That would boost the signal-to-noise ratio here significantly and make this task much simpler, but that idea hasn't gained traction. Happily, it seems more doable on CDF where the low traffic and finer partitioning of topics helps matters.
Please. All I did was take an SLBM with somewhat limited range and muse about how it could be more usefully deployed. That's hardly the most far-out thing that got posted here. Take a peek outside the "respectable" threads once in a while and observe what happens in the most active threads. You'll find quite a colourful cast of characters, I assure you.
Besides, this is a thread about a hyped up submarine sale between three countries - none of which is China - with slim chances of going through as advertised; why isn't in the MCR section somewhere? A deeper question might be what such a thread is doing in this forum to begin with. I take some solace that this thread will be deader than a doornail in a couple of weeks when interest in this ridiculous topic dies down and moves on to whatever next shiny object.
Brother, if you're worried about the SDF's credibility then there's a whole list of names you should go through before you get to mine.
bajingan
Senior Member
Does anybody have the feeling that despite of australia behaving like america 52nd state, that this aukus pact is actually australia stalling strategy to avoid being dragged into a war over taiwan?
Think about it, it will take at least two decades for the nuke subs to be operational in their navy, in the meanwhile they have nothing but collins class subs which only good for coastal defence
Who knows whats gonna happen in 20 years, many believe that taiwan reunification will happen around 2030, or even sooner
So by the time these subs are operational taiwan reunification might already long done and dusted
I don't know, what do you guys think?
Think about it, it will take at least two decades for the nuke subs to be operational in their navy, in the meanwhile they have nothing but collins class subs which only good for coastal defence
Who knows whats gonna happen in 20 years, many believe that taiwan reunification will happen around 2030, or even sooner
So by the time these subs are operational taiwan reunification might already long done and dusted
I don't know, what do you guys think?
If the activity in the flagship threads reach near zero then that is fine.
As for myself, I do not find traffic and thread activity is a reflection of content quality.
I respond to whatever posts that I happen to see that I deem worth it, and my effort and time is finite. There are other posts which are also "out there" that I criticize and respond to if I happen to see them and if I have the energy to do so.
Besides, this is not a moderation decision, and is merely myself posting as another posting member.
Leaving aside the nature of PLA watching and so on, my overall point to your previous posts, is I think they discussed too casually of a prospect that would be highly strategic and tectonic in nature, and was overreaching.
Discussing it as a prospect for future cooperation on the basis of new strategic partnership I think is fine, but would need caveats to make clear that it is not something achievable with the current state of the relationship, and your original post where you discussed it did not include those caveats and caution.
I think there will be other military hardware that will be Australia-based in the near future. The submarines are just one aspect of a bunch of stuff that will show up much sooner. Cybersecurity, strategic bombers, who knows?
@bajingan bro here's my analysis, when Obama announce its China pivot, Asia and ASEAN in particular welcome it as a hedge cause it was Obama the messiah that announce it, after Trump ascend the White house it had become a worry cause that hedge had become a problem and when Biden assume the Presidency it had become a liability with both parties (Republican and Democrats) followed a principle of America First. So what to do now, the ASEAN will proclaim a Non aligned pact with Indonesia leading the call as Sukarno did in the 60's and Singapore the de facto US ally will acquiescence as a show of solidarity. I had high hope for Joko Widodo to answer his call of destiny, this is one of them. Perfect time to assert its leadership as Duterte leave the scene and the baton was pass to him. Brother Indonesia had the making of a regional power, it was being undermined by the West especially by Australia, It had an opportunity hope they seized it with both hand.
So far the French response has been better than I thought. The attention that this betrayal is getting combined with the failure in afghanistan could spark a new de gaulle style independent french policy and become a strategic mistake by Biden. France has been the proponent for more EU attention onto indo-pacific while Germany has been trying to urge for calm.
That would be the case if it was purely a submarine deal, but I highly suspect it is much bigger than that and will surrender Australia's foreign policy to the US and entail much more things like increased basing, influence over aussie politics and media.
Biden and his team are incompetent.
China would be ready to sacrifice 10 Australias for such a win, but Biden managed to make it just 1 Australia
The reason that China was prepared to suffer such high loses for the EU is all about economics. The US is playing military, China is playing economy.
Lets see what goodies come out of France and EU to China in the following months
@sndef888 bro after Macron won the election that outrage will be tempered as he is part of the same feather (globalist) the rat pack. You had to think about the peripherals like Ukraine, Lithuania, Moldova, Italy and Poland. Especially the Italians if they had enough of the European austerity being imposed to them and decided to leave EU that will be catastrophic. Orban right now is carrying that torch the flame of "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité". The reason why Draghi a EU bureaucrat and an unelected one is proclaim PM is to rein in those sentiments.