Anas A. welcome to SD.
Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
The only way the Chinese will overcome this is to:
1) Design longer range missiles to shoot from their subs so they can make their bastion the China Sea, or as Chuck suggested, some large inlet off of it where they can threaten the entire US.
2) Design better subs that are quiet enough to give them the chance of evading the US technological lead and get to the blue water.
You mean hundreds of boats similar to the French Rubis class SSN? Well...SSNs are extremely complex constructions (not like Yuan/Song classes, which could potentially be built in fast pace like German sausages). Even the French only constructed 6 Rubis before they stopped. Compared to the Virginia class of the USN and Astute class of the Royal Navy, the Rubis is a midget sub. Maybe the Chinese could build hundreds of Yuans instead of SSNs? SSNs are probably for protecting type094s' deterrent patrols and carrier battle groups far away from the Chinese coast. What do y'all think?Their most viable and cost effective strategy is to make smaller, extremely cheap SSNs in the hundreds - numerical superiority has always proven to be quite effective against technological superior opponents in the past - from WWII to Korean War to Vietnam War - by making SSN 1/10 or even 1/50 the current cost by reducing its size and armament, it can make it extremely dangerous for US SSN "wolf pack" to venture into a swarm of "hornets". It may even become the emergent new class of submarines (I would call them "Submarine fighters" or "fighter swarms"). This will make it extremely costly for the expensive US SSN to try to go into Chinese water both in term of the risk of asset loss and human capital loss, not to mention the tremendous damage it will incur for the US technological lead if even just one USN SSN is sunk near chinese water (even if it takes down 10 of the Chinese midget SSNs) - because the Chinese would then retrieve the wreck and debris and the technological secrets it holds which takes US decades to develop.
We were talking about SSBNs Ultra.As I have mentioned previously, I think option 1 is their most viable strategy - having longer range SLBM that covers the entire US continent will an effective option, by enlarging JL-2's diameter and length (thus increase the fuel carried which will increase its range). But this will require a whole new class of subs that will be much larger to accommodate the increase in size.
Under the water, the cheapest and most viable option for them is not going for Option 2 as you suggested - to leapfrog or even closing the gap with US's submarine technologies from several decades behind is not going to be cheap and requires time (maybe decades) and tremendous amount of investments in human capital, infrastructural, industrial and engineering level.
No, China is not going to do that. At least not in the short term. There is a simpler, and far more cost effective way that has proven over and over again its effectiveness!
Their most viable and cost effective strategy is to make smaller, extremely cheap SSNs in the hundreds
No, the US would not risk losing its technological edge and the tremendous amount of investment and human capitals it has put in it when it is faced with the risk of having its prized subs sunk near the chinese water.
Hundreds of SSNs is way beyond overkill, but depending on a bunch of SSKs isn't tenable if you want blue water and persistence capabilities for your navy. That said, I think the entire notion is kind of absurd. Subs aren't the only way to counter other subs. If the concern is cost effective defence/deterrence, the focus should be on improving your sonar nets and underwater sensors.You mean hundreds of boats similar to the French Rubis class SSN? Well...SSNs are extremely complex constructions (not like Yuan/Song classes, which could potentially be built in fast pace like German sausages). Even the French only constructed 6 Rubis before they stopped. Compared to the Virginia class of the USN and Astute class of the Royal Navy, the Rubis is a midget sub. Maybe the Chinese could build hundreds of Yuans instead of SSNs? SSNs are probably for protecting type094s' deterrent patrols and carrier battle groups far away from the Chinese coast. What do y'all think?
We were talking about SSBNs Ultra.
You are now talking about attack submarines.
The best options for the PLAN with SSBNs is to do both. Have longer range missiles fired from submarines that are much more quiet.
As to your idea of a swarm of midget subs for attack subs...sorry, that may protect you in the littorals to some degree...except you will find the US then employing an area clearing strategy where multitudes of smart weapons are fired by the score from well outside the range of the midget sub's engagement that go in and decimate these swarms.
But that is not the real point here...and the PLAN know its.
The PLAN needs to be able to protect the SLOCs far out and away form China's littorals. The best answer to that in terms of speed, endurance, quietness, and weapons load is to this day a fleet of effective SSNs.
The PLAN recognizes this and is methodically developing better and better vessels in that regard that are closing the gap and posing a much more credible capability to both protect the PRCs own interest, and when necessary, threaten potential belligerents..
I see.What I mean is - the most cost effective way for PLAN is to have swarms of SSN (or SSK) as protective screen for the SSBN which is like the quarterback in a football game.
They do not need to close the gap entirely, they just have to keep improving. first with longer range missiles and incremental quieting so they can use their own bastions to their fullest extent.No doubt PLAN is pursuing that, but as mentioned before, they can't close the gap in near term just like that. For what's avaliable to them technologically and financially - they can construct scores of subs, and have the financial means to do so,
No, they could acquire the targets from a significant distance with their own subs, and then launch long range smart munitions from those subs.That would require the F-35 or P-3 to get in range -
See the second answer above.To develop stealth ultra quiet sub would take decades. And that's not something they can do easily to close that gap in the near term. So in the mean time what are they going to do? What can they do?