It will probably stabilize at some point, but in the intervening decades it will also likely reorder the balance of power throughout the international system.
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- Thread starter Jeff Head
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Governments already are treating it as a serious problem. They’ve already tried and failed to rectify it.
For sure. South Korea is facing this problem the hardest of any country right now, and they will probably be the bellwether for how badly countries get hurt.
No they're not. Governments pay lip service to it at best, and just hope that the problem will go away. Here's a hint: if a government is treating the demographic decline as a priority, they'd put much more serious money into the problem, they'd at least look at instituting effective solutions, and they'd quite likely create some sort of important government agency tasked with dealing with it.
Agreed. But I'd add that Taiwan isn't far from the situation of the ROK, with its *overall* population projected to fall to ~6.5 million by the end of the century, i.e. the population of Hong Kong in 1997.
If trends hold, eventually the issue of reunification will more-or-less solve itself by virtue of population dynamics.
Does there exist a general thread where people discuss political opinions and geopolitical thoughts and strategies?
I wonder what the pro-natal policies in China will look like. The issue is getting worse, and the government will definitely take stronger action in the not-so-distant future.
Financial incentives might be enough if in large sums, but I think broader reorientation of Chinese society towards childbearing is required. The Chinese government definitely has the influence and power to achieve something along those lines but I'm not sure what the steps will be and how it will take place?
Financial incentives might be enough if in large sums, but I think broader reorientation of Chinese society towards childbearing is required. The Chinese government definitely has the influence and power to achieve something along those lines but I'm not sure what the steps will be and how it will take place?
lcloo
Major
China has already implemented the three-child policy. It was officially announced on May 31, 2021, during a meeting of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, chaired by Xi Jinping. This move came in response to the country's declining birth rates and aging population, as revealed by the 2020 national census.
The policy was formally adopted in June 2021, and by August 2021, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress amended the Population and Family Planning Law to allow each couple to have up to three children. This amendment also removed previous penalties for exceeding birth limits.
China has only recently begun implementing policies to encourage childbirth, though it is evident that the government remains in a wait-and-see mode regarding their effectiveness. Presently, these incentives remain a drop in the ocean. Government publications reveal a growing emphasis on population issues, suggesting that more measures to encourage childbirth will be introduced over the next five to ten years.
Nevertheless, one should not be overly optimistic about China's rising fertility rate; it is likely to remain below 1.1 for another decade or so.
Nevertheless, one should not be overly optimistic about China's rising fertility rate; it is likely to remain below 1.1 for another decade or so.
Well depending on the level of government action, the birth rate very well could rise to above 1.1 not so far into the future.
For example, China announced free pre-school education in March of this year and it only took them 5 months to implement it. Albeit not completely free, but it's still benefitting 12 million households and saving 2.8 billion USD.
That shows the speed at which the government acts, and they can definitely increase the scope of their policies. Like you said, they are just in a "wait and see" phase.
Perhaps they are waiting for countries like Korea to figure something out, as the issues very similar to China, and it's more severe for Korea.
Why is there still a limit? Why not just remove it entirely? The country is still struggling to reach 2. I doubt there will be many trying to go over 3