Arab Spring II in Egypt. The potential Civil War.

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Jeff Head

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Washington Post said:
The Egyptian army’s deadline for Morsi and his critics to forge a compromise that would end the political crisis was rapidly approaching. But with Morsi defiant, and scores of thousands again taking to the streets to demand his resignation, none of the factions involved in the standoff showed any sign of backing down.

Morsi, delivered a defiant televised speech Tuesday night that made it clear he would not cede power. Waving his hands and shaking his fists, he swore that he was committed to the process that led to the historic elections last year and said that any attempts to subvert the constitution were “unacceptable.”

The army, in turn, posted a message to its Facebook page saying: “We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist, radical or fool.”

Jeruslaem Post said:
CAIRO - Egypt’s state-run Al-Ahram newspaper said it expected President Mohamed Morsi would either step down or be removed from office on Wednesday when a deadline set by the army for resolving the country’s political crisis expires.

Egypt’s flagship state daily said an army road map for the future would set up a three-member presidential council to be chaired by the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court.

Opposition: Morsi’s speech equivalent to ‘civil war call’; 16 dead in Cairo U. clashes”Al-Ahram learnt that with the end of the 48-hour period set by the armed forces ... it is expected in the hours that follow it, one of two things: either Morsi announces his resignation himself, or the declaration of his removal through the road map for the future set out by the armed forces,” it said.

Al-Ahram said the road map would set up a neutral transitional government to be headed by a military leader. The transitional period would last nine to 12 months in which a new constitution would be drafted to set out a path to presidential elections.

Egypt’s army commander and Morsi, who represents the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, each pledged his life to defy the other as the hour approached on Wednesday that will trigger a military takeover that was prompted by mass demonstrations.

The military chiefs issued a call to battle in a statement headlined “The Final Hours”. They said they were willing to shed blood against “terrorists and fools” after Morsi refused to give up his elected office. Morsi said, “The price ... is my life.”

As a mass of revelers on Cairo’s Tahrir Square feted the army for saving the revolutionary democracy won there two years ago, supporters of the president’s Muslim Brotherhood denounced a “military coup”. Some clashed with security forces at Cairo University, where 16 people died and about 200 were wounded.

I thought a separate thread for this pivotal time in Egyptian and Middle East history would be critical as this deadline approaches today.

The sides are set with both vowing not to back down. The army has clearly taken note of the large demonstrations on Sunday and feels the people are behind them wanting Morsi to step down. The plan they announced yesterday, should they have to depose Morsi, would be almost exactly the way Mubarak ran the country (which kept the peace for 20 years, but also was very severe on fundamentalist Islam). Morsi feels his election and the support of those around him will be enough to hold the line.

What will happen?

We are going to find out later today if the empasse and the deadline can be avoided, or if one or the other side will back down, or if they will break out into open fighting.

One thing is for sure...once again...the Obama administration's policy has not helped the situation at all.


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Jeff Head

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Latest News: July 3, 2013 10:00 AM EDT

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CYTV said:
CAIRO, Egypt -- Egypt's military moved to tighten its control on key institutions Wednesday, even putting officers in the newsroom of state TV, in preparation for an almost certain push to remove the country's Islamist president when an afternoon ultimatum expires.

Mohammed Morsi has vowed not to step down in the face of millions of protesters in the streets in the biggest anti-government rallies the country has seen.

His Islamist supporters have vowed to resist what they call a coup against democracy, and have also taken to the streets by the tens of thousands. At least 39 people have been killed in clashes since Sunday, raising fears the crisis could further explode into violence


The clock was ticking on the military's deadline, expiring around 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. (11 a.m. ET).

The military beefed up its presence inside the mammoth headquarters of state television on the banks of the Nile River in central Cairo. Crack troops were deployed in news-production areas. Officers from the army's media department moved inside the newsroom and were monitoring output, though not yet interfering, staffers said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the arrangements.

The state TV is run by the information minister, a Muslim Brotherhood member put in the post by Morsi, and its coverage had largely been in favour of the government. But already in the past two days, the coverage saw a marked shift, with more balanced reporting showing the anti-Morsi protests along with pro-Morsi ones. State radio has seen a similar shift.

The authoritative, state-run Al-Ahram newspaper -- which also seemed to be following a military line -- reported that the military had placed several leaders of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood under surveillance and issued a foreign travel ban on the Islamist group's top leaders.

The head of the army, Defence Minsiter Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, held a group meeting with leading reform advocate Mohammed ElBaradei, Egypt's top Muslim cleric -- Al-Azhar Sheik Ahmed el-Tayeb -- and Coptic Pope Tawadros II to discuss its political road map, a spokesman for the senior opposition National Democratic Front, Khaled Daoud, said on state TV.

Also attending the meeting were a representative of the new youth movement behind this week's protests and some members of the ultraconservative Salafi movements, a defence ministry official told The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
It appears that the Egyptian military is preparing to take down Morsi.

The Egyptian military has been very smart in how they have done things. 1st, last Thursday, they announced they were moving troops into the vicinity of all the major cities but would take no action unless there were massive civil violence. Morsi thought they were doing so to help support his government...but it became apparent that the troops were actually there to prepare for Morsi's deposing when, on Monday, after reveiwing the size of the protests, the military issued an ultimatum to Morsi to step down...with troops already deployed across the country to enforce it.

Now, in the face of Morsi's refusal, the military is occupying the State run TV and newspaper, and is meeting with all of the opposition, the leading reform advocate Mohammed El Baradei, Egypt's top Muslim cleric, the Coptic Christian Pope, the leader of the new youth movement behind Sunday's protests and members of the conservative Salafi movement. Clearly, a coalition that will help the nation be governed in the absence of Morsi and the Musilm Brotherhood.


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Jeff Head

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According to a report from the BBC 10 minutes ago, the Egyptian State TV has indicated that the Military will make an announcement as soon as the meeting with the coalition of opposition groups is over.

BBC said:

10:37 AM EDT: Egyptian state TV says to expect an army statement as soon as its meeting with religious, political and youth groups end.

I will continue to make reports here to this thread as they are rpeorted on the BBC, US News, and elsewhere. I invite others to do the same. Post news of events in Egypt here as they happen.
 

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CNN said:
11:15 EDT

CAIRO: Egyptian Military leaders have told Arab media that they plan to suspend the constitution, dissolve the parliament and sideline Morsy.

In his place, they would install a civilian interim council until a new constitution can be drafted and a new president elected.

The military's ultimatum was intended to push all factions toward a national consensus, not to seize power through a coup, a spokesman, Col. Ahmed Ali, said Monday in a written statement.

The military appears to be pressuring Morsy to restructure his government to reduce the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood and include opposition members, a source close to highly placed members of Egypt's leadership told CNN.

Five of Morsy's ministers resigned this week, including Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr.

And former Prosecutor General Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud will meet Thursday with the Supreme Judicial Council to be officially confirmed in the job.

Mahmoud had originally been installed in the job by Mubarak, shortly before he left. Mahmoud's return appeared to signify a shrinking of Morsy's power and a tilt toward Mubarak-era officials over Muslim Brotherhood loyalists.

Many of the democratic reformists and moderates who have accused Morsy's government of moving in an authoritarian direction now support former Mubarak supporters and others fed up with the nation's direction in calling for the restoration of order through the military.

Together they are pushing to oust Morsy and his Muslim conservative government, whose leaders were drawn primarily from the ranks of the Muslim Brotherhood. They say they have collected more than 20 million signatures on a petition to remove him -- millions more than the number who voted Morsy into the presidency.

In recent days, anti-Morsy demonstrators have ransacked Muslim Brotherhood offices all over the country.

Egypt's military is meeting Wednesday with religious, national, political and youth leaders to address the crisis, Egyptian military spokesman, Ahmed Ali, said through his Facebook page.

An opposition spokesman accused the United States of propping up Morsy out of concern for neighboring Israel.

"The hour of victory is coming," said Mahmoud Badr of the Tamarod opposition group. He predicted that the "illegitimate president" would be gone by the end of the day.

"Not America, not Morsy, not anyone can impose their will on the Egyptian people," Badr said.
 

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RT News said:
12:30 PM EDT (10 minutes ago)

A military coup is underway in Egypt, according to Mohamed Morsi's national security adviser and a Muslim Brotherhood spokesperson. Security forces have placed a travel ban on Morsi and a number of top Brotherhood officials, according to AFP sources.

Hundreds of Egyptian soldiers, together with armored vehicles, are taking part in a military parade on the road near presidential palace, a witness told Reuters.

National security adviser Essam El-Haddad added that he expects army and police violence to remove pro-Mursi demonstrators from the streets of Cairo.

A presidential aide said in a statement that Morsi is still working at the Republican Guard barracks in Cairo and it is unclear if he is free to leave. He added that Morsi's message to all Egyptians is to resist the military coup peacefully without using violence.

One report indicated that crowds were cheering enthusiastically as Armored Personnel Carriers were moving towards a pro-Morsi rally.
 
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delft

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A contact of BBC 4 news program now running says a coup is now underway.

I saw a headline of a comment in The New York Times that said: The problem is that the democrats are not liberal and that the liberals are not democratic. It seems that the liberals have the support of the army, but President Morsi and the Muslim Brother will have the support of all other Muslimists which probably constitute the majority of the Egyptian voters. Which means no elections and a military government probably supported by the US and Israel.
 

Jeff Head

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A contact of BBC 4 news program now running says a coup is now underway.

It seems that the liberals have the support of the army, but President Morsi and the Muslim Brother will have the support of all other Muslimists which probably constitute the majority of the Egyptian voters. Which means no elections and a military government probably supported by the US and Israel.
Well, the chief reform oppposition leader is one of the chief Muslim Clerics in Egypt, the Youth opposition who organized the protests of millions of people on Sunday are Muslims, the conservative opposition groups are mostly muslim.

To that you add the secularists, the Coptic Christians (who number several million) and the majority of the military.

All of these have come together, and are meeting to outline the governing council who will govern Egypt until a new constitution can be written (one that apparently will not be so fundamental Islamic in nature in terms of politics) and new elections can be organized.

I believe things are not going to be as split as some believe. The fact is, the fundamental Islamic Mulsim Brotherhood, went too far, and many, many of the people who came together to get Mubarak out of pwoer, have now joined together to get Morsi out of power.
 
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Jeff Head

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Apparently Morsi has moved to the Defense Ministry building.

Here are some pictures from events with the Egyptian military in Cairo:


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And this just in from CNN:

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CNN said:
July 3, 2013
Cairo (CNN) -- Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy "is no longer a part of the decision-making circle," the state-run Al-Ahram newspaper said Wednesday, citing "a senior official source." "The president is no longer able to make any political decisions now and a decision has been taken to prevent leaders loyal to the current regime from traveling overseas until the General Command of the Armed Forces are finished formulating their expected statement."

The announcement came less than two hours after the Morsi offered to form an interim coalition government, but one of his aides and a Muslim Brotherhood spokesman said it appeared that a military coup was under way.
 

Jeff Head

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So this action by the Egyptian military would qualify as a coup d'état?
Oh, there is no doubt that it is a coup.

Whether the people will support it for long is the question. They definitely support the ouster of Morsi in large numbers now. But, the military is going to have to make good on bringing this coalition of groups (the Muslim Opposition, the Coptics, the youth, the secular portion of society, the business interests and the military) together and having recognized and approved leaders from that group govern until a new election is held.

If they do not maintain that support...we will see more unrest. If they do, then there is a chance for a more long term, peaceful condition and state in Egypt.
 
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