American Economics Thread

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 50:

A recent survey by outplacement firm Careerminds found that 78% of HR leaders in the US admit their companies have experienced multiple rounds of layoffs. In fact, 40% of HR leaders in the US say layoffs now occur quarterly at their companies...
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Financial difficulties pushed 78% of U.S.-based HR leaders to conduct multiple rounds of layoffs within the past year, according to the results of a July survey by outplacement firm Careerminds, with many stating they oversaw “serial layoffs” that occurred in rapid succession.
The survey of 600 respondents found that 75% of reported layoffs occurred within less than six months of one another, and 40% of HR leaders said layoffs happened quarterly at their organizations. Financial instability constituted the biggest driver of job cuts, followed by changing business priorities, market disruption and post-pandemic overstaffing.
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According to the latest numbers released by Target, store traffic has been declining almost every week since late January...
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Target’s annual sales have been roughly stagnant for the past four years, and its inconsistent performance has tested the loyalty of shoppers and shaken the confidence of Wall Street. Store traffic at the big-box retailer has fallen almost every week since late January, according to Placer.ai, an analytics firm that uses anonymized data from mobile devices to estimate overall visits to locations. And shares of the company have tumbled about 60% from their all-time high in late 2021.
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At Walmart, many products have had their prices increased by more than 20% this year…
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At Walmart, a “Jurassic World” T. Rex figure had spiked by nearly 38% to $55 on May 21 from just a month ago. A heating pad costs 25% more to $24.96 this year, according to employees who posted photos of the price hikes on social media. A fishing reel at Walmart jumped to $83.26 from $57.37.

Joe — a regular Walmart shopper who also asked that his last name not be used — told The Post last week he was eyeing new air conditioners at the store in Cortlandt Manor, NY. Last year, he said, a small unit that cools off a 300-square-foot room cost $115 — up from $100 a year earlier.
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The size of the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level since 1951...
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One of the drivers of spiking beef costs is a drought that has ravaged U.S. cattle in key meat-producing states since 2022, causing cattle volumes to collapse this year to their lowest recorded levels since 1951.
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An income of $100,000 doesn't even cover the average cost of living in 13 US states...
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In 13 states, a $100,000 salary isn’t even enough to cover average annual cost of living. On the other end of the spectrum, there are 15 states where making that amount would cover 120% or more of those expenditures.
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A recent survey found that the average American spends 42% of their annual income on housing costs...
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Four in ten American parents say they don’t believe, or aren’t sure, their children will be able to afford to live in the same neighborhood where they grew up, according to a sobering new poll. In fact, the survey suggests that more than half of all Americans think they’re already paying too much for housing, with the average person reporting that 42% of their annual income goes toward housing costs.

The study of 1,000 Americans, conducted by Talker Research and commissioned by construction finance platform Built, highlights how concerns about housing affordability have become widespread. What was once viewed as a problem mainly affecting the poorest households is now seen as an issue facing a much broader slice of the population.
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According to Newsweek, 446 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the first seven months of this year. That's the highest total since 2010...
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The U.S. saw a sharp increase in corporate bankruptcy filings in July, according to a recent report, reaching a post-COVID peak and placing 2025 on track to surpass last year’s total.

S&P Global Market Intelligence, the research and data arm of the credit-rating agency, found that filings by large public and private companies rose to 71 last month from 66 in June, marking the highest monthly tally since July 2020. So far in 2025, meanwhile, the total of 446 bankruptcy filings is the highest for this seven-month stretch since 2010.
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Of course, it's not just big companies that are going bankrupt in alarming numbers...
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Personal and business bankruptcy filings rose 11.5 percent in the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2025, compared with the previous year.

According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 542,529 in the year ending June 2025, compared with 486,613 cases in the previous year.

Business filings rose 4.5 percent, from 22,060 to 23,043 in the year ending June 30, 2025. Non-business bankruptcy filings rose 11.8 percent to 519,486, compared with 464,553 in the previous year.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 51:

And it turns out that the number of farm bankruptcies in the United States has also been increasing…
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Hit with high interest rates and labor shortages, more American farmers are filing for bankruptcy, according to new data from the University of Arkansas.

Researchers found that more than 250 farms filed for Chapter 12 bankruptcy between April 2024 and March of this year, marking a sharp increase in financial distress across the agricultural sector.

“We’ve already beat last year in terms of Q1 national filings,” said Ryan Loy, an economist at the university. “Once you see this on a national level, it’s a clear sign that financial pressures that we saw before in the 2018 and ‘19 are kind of reemerging.”
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At this point, roughly two-thirds of Americans who carry debt admit to “minimizing it or hiding it from others”…
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The study of 1,078 adults by Self Financial exposes a nation drowning not just in debt, but in the shame that comes with it. Of those carrying debt, 66.3% admitted to minimizing or hiding it from others. This breaks down to 28.1% outright lying about their situation, 20.8% downplaying how bad things really are, and 17.4% avoiding the topic entirely.
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Americans have become so obsessed with financial problems that they think about it constantly...
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Between bills to pay, tariff news and inflation worries, money is living rent-free in Americans’ minds.

They’re spending nearly four hours a day on average thinking about it, according to new research from Empower, a financial services company.
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A recent survey found that 53% of Americans are feeling financial stress "more intensely than ever before."...
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At 54%, a little more than half of the 2,206 adults surveyed said they’re thinking about it more than they did last year. In fact, the June survey found 53% of Americans said they’re feeling financial stress “more acutely than ever,” including 62% of Gen Xers and 41% of baby boomers.
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Nearly 70% of Americans now believe the American Dream is dead, and only 25% of Americans think they “have a good chance to improve their standard of living”…
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America is becoming a nation of economic pessimists.

A new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds that the share of people who say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating to 1987. More than three-quarters said they lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own, the poll found.

Nearly 70% of people said they believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.
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The default rate on office mortgages that were securitized in commercial mortgage-backed securities has reached an all-time high...
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The office and multifamily sectors of commercial real estate loans got further bludgeoned in August, despite large-scale extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals executed in the hopes for better times and lower interest rates and more demand so that lenders don’t end up with the property and a huge loss.

The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 11.7% in August, the worst ever, a full percentage point above even the peak meltdown rate of the Financial Crisis (10.7%), according to data by Trepp , which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

Back in December 2022, the office CMBS delinquency rate was still 1.6%. Since then, it has exploded by over 10 percentage points.
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Rising stock prices are allowing the richest 10% of all Americans to control 60% of the wealth...
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The top 10% of wealthy Americans now control 60% of the nation’s wealth, while the poorer half of the country holds only 6%, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office.

Left-leaning think tanks produce regular updates on growing wealth inequality in America. This analysis, though, comes from a nonpartisan federal agency, one whose findings regularly inconvenience both Democrats and Republicans.

The new report, released this month, illustrates the role of Social Security in shoring up the wealth of middle-class and working-class Americans. If you subtract Social Security from the equation, the top 10% control nearly 70% of the nation’s wealth, and the bottom half holds only 3%.
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A CBS News/YouGov poll released today found that the percentage of Americans who believe economic conditions are worsening is more than double the percentage of Americans who believe economic conditions are improving…
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According to the latest CBS News/YouGov survey, Americans are repeatedly rating the economy unfavorably, with a majority of respondents choosing the words “uncertain” and “struggling” to describe its current state. Other words, including “unfair” (37%), “punishing” (25%), “rebounding” (20%), “expanding” (15%), and “fair” (14%), trailed behind.

Most U.S. adults believe the economy is getting worse rather than improving, the poll found. Fifty-six percent of respondents said the economy is trending downward, 27% said it is trending upward and 17% argue it is remaining steady.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 52:

The U.S. economy needs to generate about 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. So the fact that ADP is reporting that the United States fell below that level again last month is a very worrying sign…
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U.S. private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, data released Thursday shows, offering the latest indication of trouble in the labor market.

Private payrolls increased by just 54,000 in August, according to data from processing firm ADP published Thursday morning. That’s below the consensus forecast of 75,000 from economists polled by Dow Jones and marks a significant slowdown from the revised gain of 106,000 seen in the prior month.
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Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000 last week...
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Jobless claims increased to 237,000, up 8,000 from the prior week and above estimates, per data also published Thursday morning.
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The number of job openings in the US has fallen to its lowest level in nearly five years…
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Job openings ticked down in July to levels rarely seen since the Covid-19 pandemic, bolstering fears of cooling in the labor market.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report showed around 7.18 million listings in July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. That’s only the second reading under the 7.2 million level since the end of 2020.
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Mass layoffs continue to occur across the country. For example, ConocoPhillips is reducing its workforce by 20 to 25 percent...
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ConocoPhillips, one of the largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies in the U.S., told employees earlier that it plans to reduce its overall workforce by around 25%. The announcement comes as U.S. economic data show signs of softening, such as the disappointing jobs figures earlier today, which have pushed the odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut later this month to nearly 96%. WTI crude prices are trading lower amid increased concerns about OPEC supply.

A company spokesperson confirmed to Reuters that ConocoPhillips will cut its workforce by 20% to 25%. At the end of 2024, the company employed 11,800 people globally. A 25% reduction would put nearly 3,000 jobs at risk.
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U.S. manufacturing activity has now contracted for the sixth consecutive month…
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U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth straight month in August as factories dealt with the fallout from the Trump administration’s import tariffs, with some manufacturers describing the current business environment as “much worse than the Great Recession.”

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey on Tuesday also showed some manufacturers complaining that the sweeping import duties were making it difficult to manufacture goods in the United States.
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Available job openings are quickly filling up…
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Meanwhile, job postings fell across nearly every sector compared with a year ago, with the steepest declines recorded in child care, community and social service, scientific research, retail, and hospitality, according to the employment website Indeed. Administrative roles such as human resources and accounting also posted double-digit declines.
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According to economist Mark Zandi, several US states are already experiencing recessionary conditions…
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Leading economist Mark Zandi has warned that a third of the US is already in or at high risk of going into a recession.

Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, revealed that states making up nearly a third of America’s GDP – including Virginia, Connecticut and Delaware – are in dangerous territory.

‘States experiencing recessions are spread across the country, but the broader DC area stands out due to government job cuts,’ Zandi wrote on X.
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Newsweek reports that the cost of living the American Dream for a lifetime has reached $5 million…
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The American Dream has long symbolized the promise of opportunity, prosperity, and upward mobility. Coined in 1931 by writer James Truslow Adams in The Epic of America, the term described “that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement.”

But nearly a century later, achieving that vision is more expensive than ever. According to new research published by Investopedia, the lifetime cost of attaining the traditional American Dream—including homeownership, retirement, raising children, a wedding, new cars, healthcare, pets, and annual vacations—now totals roughly $5 million. These calculations assume a college-educated, dual-income household capable of sustaining these ambitions over a lifetime.
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Large employers have been eliminating high-paying jobs across the country, and in many cases, these layoffs are being driven by the AI revolution...
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The list of companies laying off companies is growing following two years of significant job cuts in tech, media, finance, manufacturing, retail, and energy. According to Business Insider, a World Economic Forum survey found that some 41% of companies worldwide expect to reduce their workforces over the next five years because of the rise of artificial intelligence.

Big companies such as Oracle, CNN, Dropbox, and Block have all previously announced layoffs linked to AI. While Amazon has not reported any job cuts this year, CEO Andy Jassy warned employees in June that the company will likely require “fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today” in the coming years as it increases its adoption of generative AI and AI agents.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
American Dream!!!
Part 53:

I've already warned about the amount of fake data from the US government, now fake BLS bureaucrats have reported that 911,000 "jobs" they originally said were "created" during the 12 months ending in March 2025 never existed...
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U.S. employers added far fewer jobs in 2024 and early 2025 than previously thought, indicating the labor market may have been significantly weaker than initial estimates had suggested.

The U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Tuesday. The figure, which exceeded economists’ expectations, appears to be the largest revision ever recorded. The preliminary estimate will be finalized next year.
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As Zero Hedge rightly pointed out, approximately 2 million jobs that were supposedly created during the last three years of the Biden administration “have now been reviewed and eliminated”…
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And the US continues to lose more manufacturing jobs month after month…
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Employers shed 12,000 manufacturing jobs in August, while payrolls in the sector have shrunk by 42,000 since April, according to a new analysis from the Center for American Progress (CAP) that draws on government labor data.
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According to a recent survey by PNC Bank, 67% of U.S. workers now live paycheck to paycheck…
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A growing share of U.S. workers are struggling to cover expenses as everyday costs continue to weigh heavily on household budgets, according to new survey findings.

PNC Bank’s annual Financial Wellness in the Workplace Report shows that 67 percent of workers now say they are living paycheck to paycheck, up from 63 percent in 2024.

The report surveyed 1,000 U.S. workers aged 21 to 69 who work full time at companies with more than 100 workers.
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There are reports that consumer confidence "fell sharply in September"...
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Consumer confidence dropped sharply in September to its lowest level in four months, according to preliminary data released Friday, as Americans expressed growing anxiety about job security and the persistence of high prices.

The University of Michigan’s closely watched index of consumer sentiment fell to 55.4 in September from 58.2 in August, missing economists’ expectations and reflecting what survey director Joanne Hsu described as “multiple vulnerabilities in the economy.”
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Parents send their children to public schools believing they will receive a quality education, but the truth is that the quality of education in public schools only gets worse...
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The reading and math scores of 12th graders have plunged to their lowest level in over 20 years.

The scores, part of a test from the National Assessment of Education Progress, showed the average reading score for 12th graders dropped to the lowest level since the NAEP first administered the reading assessment in 1992. The average score for 12th graders in math in 2024 was the lowest since 2005, when the math assessment framework changed significantly.
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“Deaths of despair” caused by alcohol abuse, drug abuse, and suicide are skyrocketing…
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Two non-profits, Trust for America’s Health and Well Being Trust, published a report this month which paints a harrowing picture of reality for millennials with an addiction in the United States. According to the report, which is an analysis of data from the CDC, millennials are the most likely age demographic to die from alcohol, drug abuse, and suicide. Millennials are most often defined as people who were born between the years 1981 and 1996, although some definitions expand the category to cover people who were born up through the year 2000.

Over the course of one decade, from 2007 to 2017, the rate of alcohol-related deaths among millennials rose by 69%, the rate of deaths caused by drugs rose by 108%, and the suicide rate rose by 35%. The report also indicates that the opioid epidemic has devastated millennials. From 1999 to 2017, the rate of fatal opioid overdoses among millennials rose by 500% and the rate of fatal overdoses involving synthetic opioids (especially fentanyl) skyrocketed by 6,000%.
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As of September 15, the tech sector had laid off more than 166,000 workers. And by the end of this year, the overall total is projected to reach nearly a quarter of a million...
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Between 1 January and 15 September 2025, more than 166,000 employees were laid off in the technology sector. We estimate that, on average, 645 workers have lost their jobs every day since the start of the year and, at this pace, the tech industry is set to let go of another 69,005 people by year-end. If the trend continues, calculations show that total tech-sector layoffs in 2025 could reach 235,392.
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The tech company cutting the most jobs is Intel. By the end of this year, more than 30,000 Intel employees will be forced to work outside...
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The company cutting the most jobs so far in 2025 is Intel, which had close to 109,000 employees at the end of 2024 and, by the end of this year, plans to reduce headcount to 75,000, according to Reuters, effectively slashing more than 30 thousand positions.
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Of course, painful layoffs are happening in many other sectors as well. In fact, widespread layoffs of this magnitude haven't been seen in the construction industry since the days of the Great Recession...
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As unsold completed new-build inventory piles up and builders see their pricing power decrease—particularly in Sun Belt markets like Austin, Tampa, and Jacksonville—more homebuilders are turning to layoffs to avoid a larger margin compression. Many builders are trimming corporate staff head counts a little and scaling back on spec construction in areas where supply has gotten too high for their liking.

Look no further than a recent John Burns Research and Consulting survey, which found that 63% of U.S. homebuilders said their local peers had recently conducted layoffs, while only 14% reported no recent layoffs among peers.

The numbers were even more striking in key Sun Belt markets: 87% of Texas builders and 79% of Florida builders said their peers had recently cut workers.
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According to the president of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, banks are projecting “25% to 40% farm bankruptcies”…
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Graves, chairman of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association, understands severe hardship. He farmed through the anemic ag crisis of the 1980s. However, the current unrest is a “coming disaster” unlike anything he’s witnessed across a 50-year career: “I’ve never seen this kinda look in farmers’ eyes. It’s fear. And it’s based in undeniable facts.”

In August 2025, Graves sent an open letter to media and politicians, pleading for attention to eye-popping numbers. “My letter told what things are like right now. In our geography, it looks like you need to yield 100-300-300 to stay ahead,” Graves describes. “That’s 100-bushel beans, 300-bushel rice and 300-bushel corn. Basic Arkansas averages are 56-bushel beans, 166-bushel rice and 175-bushel corn. In a nutshell, we are going over a cliff. Banks are forecasting farm bankruptcies at 25% to 40%, and the dirty secret is out. Everyone knows it; everyone feels it.”
 
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