American Economics Thread

[Sinnavuuty]

American Dream!!!

Part 59:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is publicly admitting that “there are sectors of the economy in recession”...

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump to the Board of Governors of the Fed and currently temporarily removed from his position as head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, adopted a pessimistic tone this week regarding the health of the world's largest economy. Bessent even stated that some sectors were already contracting. He did not specify which sectors, but high mortgage interest rates have put pressure on the housing market and related sectors, such as construction.

“I believe there are sectors of the economy in recession,” Mr. Bessent told CNN on Sunday. He described the economy as being in a “period of transition” due to a reduction in government spending to decrease the deficit. He urged the Fed to support the economy by cutting interest rates.

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Long-haul trucking volume fell 30% compared to last year…

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The long-haul trucking segment (over 800 miles), however, suffered a sharp decline. Year-on-year volumes fell a staggering 30%, a sign that the overall economy is struggling. Long-haul trucking is most exposed to the energy, manufacturing, automotive, and real estate sectors.

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Industrial activity is also declining. In fact, it has just registered a decline for the eighth consecutive month…

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The US manufacturing PMI fell in October, dropping from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction. Price pressure may have eased (from 61.9 to 58), but production (from 51 to 48.2), inventories (from 47.7 to 45.8) and deliveries (from 52.6 to 54.2) all declined.

Employment in the sector continued to decline (from 45.3 to 46%), and 67% of survey participants observed that companies are focusing on managing their current workforce rather than hiring. Again, lower interest rates are unlikely to solve this structural problem or encourage businesses to expand in a contracting business environment. Eight consecutive months of decline should serve as a warning, as declines in the manufacturing industry often precede recessions or, in this case, ongoing stagflation.

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When the economy is expanding, the amount of things that are physically moved increases. But when the economy goes into crisis, the amount of things that are physically moved decreases…

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As someone who has spent decades immersed in the freight and logistics industry, I have learned that freight data often reveals the state of the overall economy long before traditional indicators catch up. Right now, this data paints an alarming picture: the US economy is mired in a goods recession. Although consumption of services may be holding steady, the movement of physical goods—the lifeblood of the manufacturing, retail, and industrial sectors—has virtually ground to a halt. This is not speculation; it is evident in the high-frequency data we monitor at FreightWaves through our SONAR platform.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

American Dream!!!

Part 60:

The latest employment figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas have been revealed, and they are extremely concerning…

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U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, a 175% increase over the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. The number represents a 183% increase over the 54,064 job cuts announced the previous month, according to a report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global outplacement and executive coaching firm.

“The pace of job cuts in October was much higher than the monthly average. Some sectors are recovering after the pandemic hiring boom, but this is happening at a time when AI adoption, reduced consumer and business spending, and rising costs are driving spending cuts and hiring freezes. Those who were laid off are now finding it harder to find new jobs quickly, which could further loosen the labor market,” said Andy Challenger, labor market expert and chief revenue officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

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Overall, during the first 10 months of 2025, the number of job cuts was 65% higher than during the first 10 months of 2024…

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Through October, employers announced 1,099,500 job cuts, a 65% increase compared to the 664,839 announced in the first ten months of last year. This number represents a 44% increase compared to the 761,358 cuts announced throughout 2024.

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Meanwhile, household debt in the United States has just hit a new all-time high, as families struggle with the seemingly endless cost-of-living crisis…

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Total household debt hit a record $18.6 trillion last quarter, and while most borrowers are keeping up with payments, young Americans are feeling the pressure.

During the third quarter, 3% of outstanding balances became seriously delinquent — 90 days or more overdue — the largest quarterly increase since 2014, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Among young people aged 18 to 29, the rate was around 5% — more than double the previous year and the highest of all age groups.

Much of this pressure reflects non-payment of student loans, with total outstanding debt reaching a record US$1.65 trillion in the last quarter.

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The wealthiest 20% of the population still have plenty of money to spend, but most are experiencing great hardship…

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Although the wealthiest fifth of the population now accounts for almost two-thirds of spending — a record — the poorest 80%, who accounted for almost 42% of spending before the pandemic, now account for only 37%, according to Moody's Analytics. Low- and middle-income consumers are spending less on all types of goods, such as clothing and toys, especially since the announcement of tariffs earlier this year, according to data from the research firm Circana.

Student loan payments have resumed, and the number of subprime borrowers is increasing, according to the credit reporting firm TransUnion. Concerns about inflation—particularly regarding essential items like rent and food—persist, along with slower wage increases, timid hiring, and more layoffs. And the period of social isolation has exacerbated the situation for millions of people, with disruptions to food assistance and childcare benefits, as well as a significant increase in health insurance plans.

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The level of emotional stress is entering uncharted territory, and this is particularly true for young people…

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63% of young adults (aged 18-34) and 53% of parents have considered leaving the U.S. due to the country's situation.
Half of adults report signs of loneliness, while 69% say they needed more emotional support this year than they received.
Anxiety about artificial intelligence has nearly doubled among students (78%, up from 45% previously) and has increased across all age groups in just one year.
75% of Americans are more stressed about the country's future than before, with political division linked to isolation, physical symptoms, and daily difficulties.