American Economics Thread

[zgx09t]

Yea, what ever happened to "free market" and the survival of the fittest? And then they complained about China paying "subsidies"!

So much for 244 years old "the invincible hands" hoax.
Indeed, free market my foot.

 

[KYli]

My stock market portfolio is 90 percent in cash. Stocks can still go much lower. No hurry to make any move right now.

 

[PiSigma]

OMG you are publicly gambling? Nice times to do i agree Moderators?

Didn't put much in it, only got 100 shares.

I'll wait until it bottoms out then buy. My Chinese ETF and shares are starting to pick up.

 

[broadsword]

Didn't put much in it, only got 100 shares.

I'll wait until it bottoms out then buy. My Chinese ETF and shares are starting to pick up.

Wait for end of next week before going into the American market if it is still down.

 

[Skywatcher]

I don't think we'll see the bottom for a very, very long time.

 

[TK3600]

I don't think we'll see the bottom for a very, very long time.

Quite ironic quote with your username.

 

[Gatekeeper]

I posted at the Coronavirus thread, but not saw it is 4 senators. So post here as well.

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4 U.S. senators sold stock after getting coronavirus threat briefings in January
The moves spark concerns that they put safeguarding their private finances before their duty to protect public health.

• BY
• DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI AND BLOOMBERG

March 20, 2020 4:54 AM EDT

 

[Gatekeeper]

@Gatekeeper
If I were to buy oil futures, which kind should I do?

Not sure what your question is? What kind of oil, as in "company stock", or what "grades of oil" or what types of "futures" as in forwards, futures or options?

 

[Gatekeeper]

Only buy integrated companies, so for Canada it is Imperial Oil or Suncor or husky. Full disclosure, I work for Suncor and obviously own Suncor shares.

In an oil crash, the downstream side of the business (refineries) will make a ton of profit vs losses in the upstream side (oil production). That's why you won't see gas prices crash to 40 cents a liter.

If buy American companies, get ExxonMobil. I used to work for ExxonMobil's Canadian affiliate (Imperial oil). Chevron sold most of their downstream assets awhile ago. You can also buy pure downstream plays, like Tesoro oil.

Not sure where you are comin from. It looks like you are analysing from a fundamental point of view. If so, have we look at the debts side of the equation. Almost all of these companies will find their debt ratio increased, which could spelt trouble further down the line.

The only salvation for oil companies is that their products are price inelastic, thats to say if prices increase, demand would not fall proportion to the increase. And unless the world stop spinning, we expect the oil companies to survive this crisis, either through their own effort, or via government intervention. As such, their value would return some day, so therefore one can make a killing now by buying at a cheap price, and if one can wait it out.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Yes and no. The problem with the American economy is FIRE ( finance, insurance, real estate) which is counted towards the economy. But the real economy is much smaller (primary, secondary industries). FIRE doesn't produce anything other than speculation. After this is over, primary and secondary will come bounce back, because people need to eat, things need to be made (so mining, forestry, etc will be fine). People don't need to buy a fourth house...

Not sure I agree with your assessment. Sure, FIRE is a service industry, sure it doesn't make anything, sure, they are not the "real" economy, but their importance, and particularly their impact in the economy is very real indeed!

You just go try and tell the steel worker who gor laid off because his firm can't afford to make loan repayments (finance), and have their assets taken away, or firms pay off the interest instead of wages, and the affects is very very real!

This worker then can't meet his medical, house or car insurance, (insurance), and the crisis is all very real. And then, he can't meet his mortgage obligation, and had his taken away (Fanny Mai, anyone). Real estate value plummeted and affecting everyone's credit rating and the abilities to re-finance (finance)........ and the vicious cycle continues!