American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
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Makes a dumb economic point, then posts an article that contradicts the point he was making.
Carries on making the same point.
Tell us sleepy, are you really from an an ex-Soviet country? Life must have been very hard in Kerplakestan for you to devote your life to spamming economics topics on an obscure Chinese economic forum.
Just came back from Costco. 3 pieces of steak for $80. If this isn't inflation I don't know what is. This is from Canada, but I doubt US would be much far off.
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What economic point was I making, that you found dumb?
Damn... almost hitting A5 Wagyu prices...
Stagflation, Stagnant growth and inflation. Stagflation in its strictest term is high inflation coupled with stagnant of growth and rising unemployment. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. As higher prices cause demand to drop, and as the demands drop the need of labor decrease. As a result there is a decrease in both supply and demand, consequently both inflation and unemployment would go up.
In the 70s and 80s, the economy officially entered stagflation in 1974 and ended in 1984. Core inflation in 1973 increased from 3.6% to 8.3% in 1974. Unemployment increased from 5.6% in 1974 to 8.5% in 1975. Unemployment has always been the lagging indicator. The Fed believes they could manage a soft landing but I disagree.
My stance has always been that due to the Fed is soft and weak just like they were in 2021 and early 2022 by calling inflation is transitory. The recent increase in the interest rate would not be enough break the inflation in the long run as inflation would return next year but unemployment would also rise. Therefore, we have stagflation.
Whatever.
Because the US is not in a hyperinflation like Argentina or Turkey. US only has high inflation or stagflation which doesn't mean inflation would constantly go up and up. If inflation is increasing 1% each month from previous month, then it is a definition of hyperinflation.
I don't know why you keep downplaying the Fed and the administration's responsibilities for not taking actions earlier as there are plenty of signs of overheating in the economy due to the trillions pumping in the economy and the zero interest rate. They keep talking about inflation is transitory and they fucked up. Don't try to excuse them for their failures and the messes that they created.
Another attempt to put words in my mouth. I never said Ukraine conflict didn't play a role in inflation. I said that inflation is increase at faster in 2022 than 2021 and with or without Ukraine conflict, the US is having high inflation. That is a fact. I don't need to provide any data because that is a fact. unless you are telling me that 2022 inflation is not higher than 2021.
So what, people talk about and compare inflation from the year before not from the month before. Inflation increased from 1.4% annually to 7% annually. That is a fact.
I didn't see any. You just pick and choose irrelevant data and move goal post to continue your nonsense but never answer anything directly.
That is just your opinion.
How much is the US growing right now and you think 6.5% inflation is considered fine. Do you know the Fed has obligation to keep inflation at 2%.
Moving goal post, posting irrelevant data of month to month by dismissing and ignoring any contrary data or annual data, insisting 6.5% is mission accomplished. I don't see why you have the audacity to claim your assessment is accurate.
What is your point? Again trying to move the goal post. From the lowest point to the highest point there is 60% increase in rent. And these data is average. You think every landlords increase and decrease rent like the graph. That is why I keep saying you don't live in the real world. Some people got their rent increase 50% or even double but others might not get increase much.
Whatever make you feel better sleepystudent.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
My wife got the same ones yesterday at our Costco. Grilled them tonight, that AAA Albertan beef ribeye totally worth it.
This pack did cost $45 2 years ago.
Next, the US gov will swap mechanically seperated ground beef at Walmart for Japanese A5 Wagyu as substitution to stabalized the CPI and curtail the transitory inflation.
Yeesh, what is the price of popular fruits and vegetables?
I'm glad you finally conceded that stagflation does indeed require a period of high unemployment.
Good, I'm glad you're making finally starting to make an argument that makes sense. To that end, no. I don't believe that a 0.5% rise in interest rates is soft whatsoever, especially when MtM data indicates that inflation has virtually stopped. Should inflation data next month indicate that there is once again an up-tick in inflation, the Fed can raise interest rates yet again by 0.75% instead of 0.5%.
Lol you did concede. So yeah. Whatever.
Inflation was increasing nearly 1% per month. The only technical definition of hyperinflation I can find, is when the inflation rate exceeds over 50% per month.
I wasn't downplaying anything. That's merely the impression you got, because I pointed out the exact numbers, which were inconsistent with your representation of the situation.
Furthermore, you do need to prove your "facts". Especially when they are being contested. Which is exactly what I did. Now to be fair, this most recent post of yours, is significantly better on the historical record.
Yeah, people aren't particularly intelligent on this issue. In order to see whether the Fed is making progress on inflation, we have to look at MtM inflation numbers, not YoY. That's how we can determine if it is getting worse or better.
You're the person who keep spouting random nonsense, and then gets mad when it gets disproven by data.
I didn't bring up chicken or eggs. You did.
I didn't bring up rental prices, you did.
All I did, was call out the ridiculous hyperbole that people are spitting, because they want to be upset.
I never said inflation wasn't high, or that high inflation was okay. All I said was that it's nowhere near as bad as the numbers people are suggesting.
That's about as direct as you can get.
Uh yes. Yes it is just my opinion. I never asserted it as fact.
I think that MtM inflation of -0.1% for December is fine. The noose is still being tightened by raising the rate by yet another 0.5%, because it's better to be safe and continue monetary tightening. I don't think it's somehow "soft" to still raise rates. No. I think it would be incredibly destructive to raise rates without any regard for the economic ramifications and it's better to go for a soft landing.
Why? Because a recession is destructive. It hurts workers. And the very people I chastise for their ridiculous "my expenses have doubled" stories, will face much more serious ruin when many of them lose their jobs, when they lose their businesses, when their homes are repossessed. I consider that to be one of the worst possible scenarios.
So no. The 0.5% raise in interest rates is fine and the Fed is continuin its battle against inflation. Responsibly.
It's not irrelevant. It's up-to-date information that should be informing our decision. Lol.
What goalposts? For a dozen posts now, you've insisted that rental prices have doubled. The very article you provided as evidence, explicitly noted that prices didn't double or increase by 50%.
What happened, was that prices actually fell and then recovered. Rental prices have increased by a lot, but the actual number isn't close to 50%. It's around 20% (at best) from pre-pandemic to now.
I even noted that perhaps there may be some lone, anecdotal evidence (some people have very low or no rent thanks to connections or crazy deals), but as a rule, rents did not increase by 50%. Your own NYT article you posted corroborated that, and so did the resource they referenced, some kind of apartment rent data tracker.
If were actually more accurate, rent prices in most cases increased under 20%, not even the full 20%.
But yeah man, my data shows that your own data shows that. But because you know somebody who claims that their rent increased by 50%, somehow that means everyone's rent costs have doubled.
Lol okay. You can ask the mods to verify my identity, because I have no idea who you guys are whinging about. But you guys are haunted by some sort of spectre, that I am unaware of. He must've owned you incredibly hard if you're still crying about it after he left.