American Economics Thread

[tygyg1111]

It's going to be an interesting time to see how well Mark's argument is going to hold up or look like within the time frame he expects which is 18 months.

It seems that Mark's analysis like all analysis aren't free of personal bias or tainted by his own preferences in economics and political ideology.

It's also interesting to note that much of many so called experts on areas where hard science is not involved, the blather don't configure China into their analysis, and if they do it's done belatedly, a footnote, and if it must be included it'll be in a negative fashion to essentially be used as the scapegoat for their systems failure.

It's a bit concerning to sort of realize that a lot of American thinking or so called "strategic thinking" are actually mostly HOT AIR. Has the American mind athropied or is suffering from inertia? Which is why we see or can observe their actions being made are sort of done quixotically and in my opinion rudderless.

There's a coherent and consistent strategy alright and that's a consistency in creating bogeyman in order to create a condition for their people to coalesce and be manipulated into doing their military-security-political-industrial complex. I am just gobsmacked when thinking about this thing. It is kind of scary.

Group inertia overcoming and drowning out any remaining individual brilliance. Right now, the US is like late Qing dynasty China.

 

[LesAdieux]

Now

10_y: 1.94
1_y: 1.03
3_m: 0.3575

3_m < 1_y < 10_y

Normal

it doesn't apply to the current situation.

inverted curve usually occurs after a long boom, when interest rate is high. if market fears a recession is coming, interest rate will come down, traders long the long term debts, push the long term yield down, the yield curve may get inverted.

 

[W20]

Another interesting aspect is that years ago one could recreate the behavior of the US_Treasury_10y with a more or less simple econometric model based on GDP growth +/- Liquidity and Velocity of Money. And yet these econometric models stopped working, because now there is a new variable: China. I mean that a good handful of things that we took for granted say 10-20 years ago are now and 10-20 years from now maybe not true.

 

[LesAdieux]

Another interesting aspect is that years ago one could recreate the behavior of the US_Treasury_10y with a more or less simple econometric model based on GDP growth +/- Liquidity and Velocity of Money. And yet these econometric models stopped working, because now there is a new variable: China. I mean that a good handful of things that we took for granted say 10-20 years ago are now and 10-20 years from now maybe not true.

actually the new factor maybe the QE.

 

[siegecrossbow]

The video you linked to was first posted back on Jul 21, 2020..... even that article he rehashed was published last May 2021.
There is not 18 months left in his prediction lol of so-called transitory inflation...

Q: What does Soviet Russia always have a plenty supply of?

A: Transitory problems.

 

[ansy1968]

Q: What does Soviet Russia always have a plenty supply of?

A: Transitory problems.

@siegecrossbow Sir like the Soviet Union and the Roman Empire before them, I fear that the US is heading for a System Collapse!

 

[Overbom]

@siegecrossbow Sir like the Soviet Union and the Roman Empire before them, I fear that the US is heading for a System Collapse!

The US has been declining since Reaganomics. Another reason why Republican are always China's best friend

 

[Overbom]

Gradually approaching toilet paper status

 

[9dashline]

Seriously answering your question. The net effect is the same. It matters little if a country has its currency as the currency of world circulation or if its currency is undervalued in the international market with low demand.

This is called the Cantillon Effect.

The US with its world currency has the natural advantage that no other country has, they are the last to suffer from monetary expansion.

The cantillon effect states that coin printing creates uneven inflation, benefiting the first people who come into possession of the newly created coin, as inflation destroys the value of coin over time, the sooner a person has access to that coin. , the more you will benefit. But over time, even that person benefited will also suffer from the late effects of this expansionist monetary nature, everything will depend on the progression of the circulation of this new currency created.

As all currencies today are fiat currency, there is no escape even for those at the top, but they will suffer less than ordinary people.

The inflationary effects that we are witnessing today in the US only confirm this statement. Since 2020, the US has printed trillions of dollars incurring unimaginable budget deficits, the world still felt the inflationary effects of this expansion in 2020, but now Americans are feeling the permanent inflationary effects of this monetary policy. As I said, there is no escape.

Only tards believe in MMT, inflation in US will only get worse and worse from here on out... maybe this is why they are itching for wwiii

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Gradually approaching toilet paper status
View attachment 82676

ShadowStats “Corrected” Alternate CPI estimate hit 15.63% [up from 15.15% in December], the steepest inflation rate since June 1947 (in 75 years).

 

[pmc]

The US has been declining since Reaganomics. Another reason why Republican are always China's best friend

It started much earlier when Germany created this cooperation across the blocs. they got reliable cheap resources and highly skilled human and Europe started creating research centers, Pharma, industrial and energy giants on much bigger scale. this had direct impact on newly rich Middleast from 70s. while US was stuck in Vietnam and could only see Japanese consumer goods and cars but it couldnot see Europe. i have no doubt EU manufactured goods exports to Asia exceed US exports to Asia.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Renunciation of violence, respect for the inviolability of borders in Europe, reduction of tensions, securing peace, good-neighbourly relations and co-operation across blocs are the guiding principles of the so-called “new Ostpolitik” of the social-liberal government. In this, the accord which Egon Bahr negotiated with the Soviet Union in 1970 has decisive significance. The

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

which Brandt and Scheel sign in the Kremlin, frees the way for further Eastern treaties with

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, the GDR in 1972, and Czechoslovakia in 1973 as well as for the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

​