American Economics Thread

[horse]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473121371970412544

The US-China alliance against Chinese companies is working.

President Trump used to be fixated on the SP500, if the market goes up then it was good. He never explained why he wanted the market to go up.

The stock market goes up and down. It might reflect economic conditions, it might not.

Here is a story, an important one, that no one in the Western media would like to report on or say a word.

China is the world's largest creditor.

In terms of what that means for China and the world, that means a lot, where market capitalization of stocks is more a measure of wealth inside that country.

There are other assets, like real estate, it too is a measure of wealth, inside that country, and guess who has the largest real estate market in the world? But of course, that is a bubble in China that is about to collapse.

Being the world's largest credit means a lot, it means influence. China has influence with that. That is something the west will not report.

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In total, the Chinese state and its subsidiaries have lent about $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries around the globe. This has turned China into the world’s largest official creditor — surpassing traditional, official lenders such as the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments combined.

 

[tokenanalyst]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473121371970412544

The US-China alliance against Chinese companies is working.

So they manage to deflated the tech bubble in china, interesting. You know there a massive tech bubble? Well there is a MASSIVE everything bubble, but more in the tech sector. Those valuations do not represent reality, once the central banks unwind their stimulus because if they don't inflation is going eat thought the middle class, stocks buybacks aren't going to be enough to stop those sky high unrealistic valuations deflating like a party balloon. That is why the Chinese did the call of stopping the tech valuation bubble.

 

[tokenanalyst]

They took a problem and made it exponentially worse.

Central Banks had the last chance to deflate in 2018-2019 under Trump when inflation was low and job numbers were good, now inflation is high and job numbers are bad, now they must be really really careful when undoing that easy money, like the ASML type. precision.
Why not before someone asks? They have their chance in 2014, 2016 and 2018, but central banks are not really independent as they say they are, politicians and big banks have a lot to say in the policies of central banks.

 

[2handedswordsman]

So they manage to deflated the tech bubble in china, interesting. You know there a massive tech bubble? Well there is a MASSIVE everything bubble, but more in the tech sector. Those valuations do not represent reality, once the central banks unwind their stimulus because if they don't inflation is going eat thought the middle class, stocks buybacks aren't going to be enough to stop those sky high unrealistic valuations deflating like a party balloon. That is why the Chinese did the call of stopping the tech valuation bubble.

Lol they ban Chinese entities and then congratulating themselves after banning the opponents at the contest of the biggest ever bubble

 

[tokenanalyst]

Lol they ban Chinese entities and then congratulating themselves after banning the opponents at the contest of the biggest ever bubble

Most people in the U.S. and in the world in general fail to understand that the stock market is not the real economy, just because Tesla has market cap of 3X of Toyota doesn't mean that Tesla is bigger company than Toyota which revenue tops 270 billion dollars vs Tesla just 32 billion. The market could go up like 10x faster than the real economy and fall 6x faster and the real economy won't even feel it.
But bubbles can affect the economy in other ways like financial institutions gambling with borrowed money in the stock market is pretty dangerous, i really hope that regulators and watchdogs are doing their jobs isolating the banking system to no repeat the mistakes of the 2008 financial crisis. Bubbles could deprive the real economy of wise investment as investor throw their money to anything they see, because nothing it seem to be losing, everything is winning. Companies could spend their real revenue money in stocks buybacks rather than the real economy like building semiconductors fabs and then ask the government to invest in fabs.

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[Tyler]

But unfortunately, your education is not

We all understand that Chinese tech companies should be about tech and benefitting China while you continue to pretend that money and foreign investors (and thus foreign influence) is what matters.

tencent and alibaba are some of the most innovative companies and they reinvest their money into other newer innovative companies. Innovation is something that is lacking with state owned companies.

 

[broadsword]

tencent and alibaba are some of the most innovative companies and they reinvest their money into other newer innovative companies. Innovation is something that is lacking with state owned companies.

Are there any SOEs in the IT industry?

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Are there any SOEs in the IT industry?

Neusoft does industrial software but not Indian style IT.

 

[broadsword]

Neusoft does industrial software but not Indian style IT.

Also not like Alibaba, Tencent.

 

[LesAdieux]

will the US economy enter a recession in 2022?

it depends on one thing: inflation, and what's the driver behind the inflation.

The Fed has finally dropped the word transitory, but it hasn't changed its view on what's behind the inflation, it still insists supply disruption caused by the covid is the main reason that pushing prices up. however more and more people believe the real culprit is the excessive money supply and excessive low rates.

I'll put a 70% chance that fed got it wrong, and a 70% chance that the US economy will enter a recession in 2022.