American Economics Thread

[horse]

I think Telsa is worth the hype.

The ICE is being legislated out of existence.

Even Saudi Arabia wants electric cars on its roads.

Telsa has first mover advantage.

Branding is important.

This is a consumer good we are talking about, the car.

GM and Ford, what does that evoke? Gasoline cars.

Also, got to remember the history of the American auto industry.

Government Motors has been bailed out a couple of times at least. That is why GM is called Government Motors by those ideologically inclined.

No one use to buy a Japanese car, until the OPEC 1973 oil crisis, which incidentally kicked off the inflationary 1970's in America.

Since gas became expensive, Americans wanted cars that used less gas, and not the gas guzzlers made by GM, Ford, Chrysler.

The American auto industry could not adapt back then.

What gives anyone any confidence that GM and Ford can adapt now, and build electric cars that people want?

If someone forces us to make a choice, the most logical choice is to expect GM and Ford to go under like a Volvo.

 

[9dashline]

I think Telsa is worth the hype.

The ICE is being legislated out of existence.

Even Saudi Arabia wants electric cars on its roads.

Telsa has first mover advantage.

Branding is important.

This is a consumer good we are talking about, the car.

GM and Ford, what does that evoke? Gasoline cars.

Also, got to remember the history of the American auto industry.

Government Motors has been bailed out a couple of times at least. That is why GM is called Government Motors by those ideologically inclined.

No one use to buy a Japanese car, until the OPEC 1973 oil crisis, which incidentally kicked off the inflationary 1970's in America.

Since gas became expensive, Americans wanted cars that used less gas, and not the gas guzzlers made by GM, Ford, Chrysler.

The American auto industry could not adapt back then.

What gives anyone any confidence that GM and Ford can adapt now, and build electric cars that people want?

If someone forces us to make a choice, the most logical choice is to expect GM and Ford to go under like a Volvo.

Branding matters a lot less ... function over form unless we are talking about the iSheeple lining up for an Apple iCar

Sony had the first mover advantage on mirrorless for years and people thought Canon was going to go the way of Kodak with its mirror EOS DSRL lineups...

Canon new R series changed all that literrally overnight.

If you think Toyota cannot catch up and beat Tesla at its own game... Im of the opinion that it will pull a Canon

The future is autonomous self driving EV cars... say bye to personal car ownership, and hello to transportation as a service.. the night is still young, once upon a time people said myspace had the first mover advantage too

 

[Tyler]

Branding matters a lot less ... function over form unless we are talking about the iSheeple lining up for an Apple iCar

Sony had the first mover advantage on mirrorless for years and people thought Canon was going to go the way of Kodak with its mirror EOS DSRL lineups...

Canon new R series changed all that literrally overnight.

If you think Toyota cannot catch up and beat Tesla at its own game... Im of the opinion that it will pull a Canon

The future is autonomous self driving EV cars... say bye to personal car ownership, and hello to transportation as a service.. the night is still young, once upon a time people said myspace had the first mover advantage too

It is Nio and Byd that are beating tesla, not toyota.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think Telsa is worth the hype.

The ICE is being legislated out of existence.

Even Saudi Arabia wants electric cars on its roads.

Telsa has first mover advantage.

Branding is important.

This is a consumer good we are talking about, the car.

GM and Ford, what does that evoke? Gasoline cars.

Also, got to remember the history of the American auto industry.

Government Motors has been bailed out a couple of times at least. That is why GM is called Government Motors by those ideologically inclined.

No one use to buy a Japanese car, until the OPEC 1973 oil crisis, which incidentally kicked off the inflationary 1970's in America.

Since gas became expensive, Americans wanted cars that used less gas, and not the gas guzzlers made by GM, Ford, Chrysler.

The American auto industry could not adapt back then.

What gives anyone any confidence that GM and Ford can adapt now, and build electric cars that people want?

If someone forces us to make a choice, the most logical choice is to expect GM and Ford to go under like a Volvo.

Tesla has lost money every year until 2020, and it didn't lose money in 2020 only because of government subsidy. It is an objective fact that even GM has built a superior electric car in the Chevy Bolt, never mind BYD.

There's also another fact: it never pays dividend.

A stock without dividend payment is a speculation. Here's why. Stock value is perfectly captured by P:E ratio, P:S ratio, debt:equity ratio, profit margin, asset value and market share. If these metrics do not change, the true value of the stock does not change, and any changes in stock value reflect speculation and volatility, not value change. Theoretically, all changes in value are captured by changes in fundamental parameters.

When you buy a stock in a company, you are essentially loaning it money immediately for the opportunity of payout in the future, but with the risk that your initial investment could decline in value due to decline in relevant metrics (higher costs, higher debt, market share loss, etc). The company in return pays you in dividends to pay for your risk, just like you pay interest to a bank.

If the company does not pay you a dividend for your risk, then your stock investment is inherently speculatory, since all else being equal, the fundamental price does not change, and if there is no overvaluation of the stock, then you perfectly get in what you get out - minus risk and inflation, which leads to loss on average.

Now some companies might skyrocket in price despite this, but for every Tesla there's also Theranos, Enron, etc.

Branding matters a lot less ... function over form unless we are talking about the iSheeple lining up for an Apple iCar

Sony had the first mover advantage on mirrorless for years and people thought Canon was going to go the way of Kodak with its mirror EOS DSRL lineups...

Canon new R series changed all that literrally overnight.

If you think Toyota cannot catch up and beat Tesla at its own game... Im of the opinion that it will pull a Canon

The future is autonomous self driving EV cars... say bye to personal car ownership, and hello to transportation as a service.. the night is still young, once upon a time people said myspace had the first mover advantage too

The future at least in China and likely many other Asian countries, is reducing resource consumption and footprint with increased public transit, non-road vehicles (e-bikes) and remote work. It's very hard to find parking spaces and registration permits. That is simply the reality. Even right now Tesla's 'fully self driving' is barely better than cruise control and crashes into walls all the time when self parking. There's a reason why Wuling Hongguang is #1.

As for the US? heh. we're talking about a country where the average car on the road is 18 years old and has tons of rural land. You still can't even drive from Denver to Dallas on a Tesla because there's a 200 mile stretch of mountain without any charging stations. Coastal state elites don't see that but Real All Muricans (TM) have reasons why they drive big gas guzzling pickups.

 

[ansy1968]

I think Telsa is worth the hype.

The ICE is being legislated out of existence.

Even Saudi Arabia wants electric cars on its roads.

Telsa has first mover advantage.

Branding is important.

This is a consumer good we are talking about, the car.

GM and Ford, what does that evoke? Gasoline cars.

Also, got to remember the history of the American auto industry.

Government Motors has been bailed out a couple of times at least. That is why GM is called Government Motors by those ideologically inclined.

No one use to buy a Japanese car, until the OPEC 1973 oil crisis, which incidentally kicked off the inflationary 1970's in America.

Since gas became expensive, Americans wanted cars that used less gas, and not the gas guzzlers made by GM, Ford, Chrysler.

The American auto industry could not adapt back then.

What gives anyone any confidence that GM and Ford can adapt now, and build electric cars that people want?

If someone forces us to make a choice, the most logical choice is to expect GM and Ford to go under like a Volvo.

@horse bro I think ICE will be around for 20 more years here in the developing country, I owned a Toyota Fortuner 2020, I bought it even thought it cost more due to the brand name which evoke durability and maintainability. Lately I test drive a GEELY COOLRAY Sport, I fall in love again, when I sat inside the Car I told my wife I'll divorce her and get these car...lol. OMG!!! I enjoy it a lot, and makes me think to buy it even though its a Chinese Car, For $24,000 it comes will all the bell and whistle of a luxury European Car. Compare to my Toyota Fortuner it look spartan at a price of nearly $41,000. So the Chinese car is a product disruptor, many of us Filipinos had realized that the Japanese cars are overvalue with scant improvement in both tech feature and design. Here is a microcosm of what the Chinese can do, Its not only GEELY, I also heard glowing reports of Cherry and Changan cars and I think with the latest ICE models they're able to conquer the lower and middle segment pushing out the Koreans and Japanese. Maybe We will lived in a world where the Chinese will dominate both the EV and ICE market (lower and maybe the middle segment).

 

[9dashline]

Tesla has lost money every year until 2020, and it didn't lose money in 2020 only because of government subsidy. It is an objective fact that even GM has built a superior electric car in the Chevy Bolt, never mind BYD.

There's also another fact: it never pays dividend.

A stock without dividend payment is a speculation. Here's why. Stock value is perfectly captured by P:E ratio, P:S ratio, debt:equity ratio, profit margin, asset value and market share. If these metrics do not change, the true value of the stock does not change, and any changes in stock value reflect speculation and volatility, not value change. Theoretically, all changes in value are captured by changes in fundamental parameters.

When you buy a stock in a company, you are essentially loaning it money immediately for the opportunity of payout in the future, but with the risk that your initial investment could decline in value due to decline in relevant metrics (higher costs, higher debt, market share loss, etc). The company in return pays you in dividends to pay for your risk, just like you pay interest to a bank.

If the company does not pay you a dividend for your risk, then your stock investment is inherently speculatory, since all else being equal, the fundamental price does not change, and if there is no overvaluation of the stock, then you perfectly get in what you get out - minus risk and inflation, which leads to loss on average.

Now some companies might skyrocket in price despite this, but for every Tesla there's also Theranos, Enron, etc.



The future at least in China and likely many other Asian countries, is reducing resource consumption and footprint with increased public transit, non-road vehicles (e-bikes) and remote work. It's very hard to find parking spaces and registration permits. That is simply the reality. Even right now Tesla's 'fully self driving' is barely better than cruise control and crashes into walls all the time when self parking. There's a reason why Wuling Hongguang is #1.

As for the US? heh. we're talking about a country where the average car on the road is 18 years old and has tons of rural land. You still can't even drive from Denver to Dallas on a Tesla because there's a 200 mile stretch of mountain without any charging stations. Coastal state elites don't see that but Real All Muricans (TM) have reasons why they drive big gas guzzling pickups.

If you look at airplanes and cruiseships they are always full loaded and fly/sail 24/7/365

At least in the US, most consumer car is idle like 90% of the time, either in car garage, office parking, retail parking etc...

Imagine level 5 Self driving solved, and with 6G grid, interconnected pool of autonomous cars that talk to each other, swarm intelligence... with the benefit of central controlled traffic shaping...

Without a human driver, that increases sedan occupancy by 25% , no need for steer wheel etc...

Rides will be so cheap it wont make sense for most people to own a car anymore... houses dont need to be built with garages, shopping centers dont need large parking spaces, no more traffic jams caused by accidents....

A pool of autonomous EV also solves the battery charging or swapping problem just like Google Stadia cloud gaming means no load times (always a game instance already loaded and ready to play) any car that needs to be charged or maintence will pull itself our of the pool and anytime anywhere you can get a car within minutes/seconds, never worry about insurance, traffic tickets, car registration or maintence or upkeep...

To think Tesla will corner all this is pretty far fetched...its massively overvalued, its like that gamestop stock a while back

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

If you look at airplanes and cruiseships they are always full loaded and fly/sail 24/7/365

At least in the US, most consumer car is idle like 90% of the time, either in car garage, office parking, retail parking etc...

Imagine level 5 Self driving solved, and with 6G grid, interconnected pool of autonomous cars that talk to each other, swarm intelligence... with the benefit of central controlled traffic shaping...

Without a human driver, that increases sedan occupancy by 25% , no need for steer wheel etc...

Rides will be so cheap it wont make sense for most people to own a car anymore... houses dont need to be built with garages, shopping centers dont need large parking spaces, no more traffic jams caused by accidents....

A pool of autonomous EV also solves the battery charging or swapping problem just like Google Stadia cloud gaming means no load times (always a game instance already loaded and ready to play) any car that needs to be charged or maintence will pull itself our of the pool and anytime anywhere you can get a car within minutes/seconds, never worry about insurance, traffic tickets, car registration or maintence or upkeep...

To think Tesla will corner all this is pretty far fetched...

Robotaxi being profitable is the funniest idea ever. Consumer cars are idle 90% of the time, that is because nobody needs to drive them because transport demand plummets during the middle of the night, workday, etc. If transport demand did not plummet, the consumer cars wouldn't be idle. So who will be hailing rides from the robotaxis?

OK. Let's just say that any consumer car can become a robotaxi. Since 90% of the time the cars are idle, total demand for robotaxi services will then be 10% that of typical car transport, but with 100% of the car pool competing over this 10% market. That sort of competition drives profit down to essentially zero. Then a competitor can just lower costs by releasing a car that doesn't have a robotaxi function, just level 3-4 autonomy and save $10k USD per car on costs (what Tesla charges for FSD upgrade). hmm...

Then you have US legal liability issues. What if your car hits someone? How do you know a customer didn't cause it? Who is liable, you or the company? What if there's a failure in the car, is it your fault due to negligence or is it the company's fault through a bad product?

 

[9dashline]

Then you have US legal liability issues. What if your car hits someone? How do you know a customer didn't cause it? Who is liable, you or the company? What if there's a failure in the car, is it your fault due to negligence or is it the company's fault through a bad product?

Tesla cars for example record everything, it knows who was controlling and what inputs, like blackbox of airplane

There will be selfdriving insurance to cover the legal liability...

Its no difference than flying a drone using its autopilot then it crashes and hits someone and blinds them... the victim can sue both the manufacter and the operator

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

@horse bro I think ICE will be around for 20 more years here in the developing country, I owned a Toyota Fortuner 2020, I bought it even thought it cost more due to the brand name which evoke durability and maintainability. Lately I test drive a GEELY COOLRAY Sport, I fall in love again, when I sat inside the Car I told my wife I'll divorce her and get these car...lol. OMG!!! I enjoy it a lot, and makes me think to buy it even though its a Chinese Car, For $24,000 it comes will all the bell and whistle of a luxury European Car. Compare to my Toyota Fortuner it look spartan at a price of nearly $41,000. So the Chinese car is a product disruptor, many of us Filipinos had realized that the Japanese cars are overvalue with scant improvement in both tech feature and design. Here is a microcosm of what the Chinese can do, Its not only GEELY, I also heard glowing reports of Cherry and Changan cars and I think with the latest ICE models they're able to conquer the lower and middle segment pushing out the Koreans and Japanese. Maybe We will lived in a world where the Chinese will dominate both the EV and ICE market (lower and maybe the middle segment).

combustion cars will likely be around for not only 20 but likely indefinitely.

They might switch to more renewable fuels, have a hybrid motor or even use fuel cells, but this is a fundamental fact:

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.

You cannot run wheeled freight transport on battery because batteries are too heavy and eat into cargo payload. As comparison: a Toyota Corolla has essentially negligible gas tank weight with typically ~50 kg fuel over 15 gallons. Tesla model 3 is 480 kg, range 260 miles.

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, while hybrid has

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So even a combustion Toyota Corolla has range 495 miles (almost 2x Tesla Model 3) while hybrid Toyota Corolla utterly destroys Tesla with 780 miles.

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A typical diesel truck can get up to

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. So they can get a range of up to 3000 miles on 1 fuel tank. This is reasonable for a cross country truck route as is common in the US and in China.

The maximum

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So a diesel truck takes up only 2.6% of total mass.

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. So to meet the limits, you can have a 17500 kg truck + 1000 kg fuel carrying 21500 kg cargo.

How much does a battery weigh?

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to travel 260 miles. To travel the same 3000 mile distance as the diesel truck, assuming linear scaling (not true, more battery means more power needed to just drive the battery around) you need 12 batteries or 5760 kg. So you have 17500 kg truck + 5760 kg fuel carrying 16740 kg cargo.

The diesel truck has 30% higher payload at equal range thus 30% lower cost.

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while

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on a 1x battery. For a truck 12x battery it'll take 360 minutes for 200 miles. To get a full charge it will take 4000 minutes of fast charging - 3 full days of charging.

So in the same time it takes to drive 1 load 3000 miles, and recharge for 3 days, the diesel truck already made 2 trips.

Now with just a few change - diesel truck convert to combustion powered IEP-hybrid like a ship for instance - you can get something like 20-30 mpg with the same energy storage advantage of chemical fuel. It destroys battery truck in every way.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Tesla cars for example record everything, it knows who was controlling and what inputs, like blackbox of airplane

There will be selfdriving insurance to cover the legal liability...

Its no difference than flying a drone using its autopilot then it crashes and hits someone and blinds them... the victim can sue both the manufacter and the operator

why would I get in a stranger's car that's watching me? you also have no answer for the low demand which destroys the entire economic premise.