American Economics Thread


Overbom

Captain
Registered Member
All those energy drinks (stimulus /QE∞ ) still falling asleep...(bad GDP numbers)

Whats funny is that US pressed the emergency button and printed money like it was water. Anyone else remember the stories from last year when we were all hearing about "US 7% gdp growth next year!" "Haha China was left behind", "US growth more than China".

And now, with all these trillions printed, their Q3 growth is going to be at around 1%
 

9dashline

Junior Member
Registered Member
September job report big letdown again

194k added, while 500k expected.

the ADP has become irrelevant
Not surprisingly, many folks mistakenly believe the US "labor shortage" is a sign of a workers market... when in reality its much more because employers aren't willing to pay living wages, given that, for example, as a floor, the US federal min wage hasn't changed since 2009, yet you see the true inflation numbers are far higher than what is officially reported by CPI etc (in fact if using the governments own way of calculating inflation the formula back in the 80s and 90s, just this one year alone the real inflation is already way past double digits) .... essentially what is happening is companies cannot afford to pay more for wages (or that and the fact that if they are forced to do so they will just automate the jobs away with AI/ tech etc) while at the same time a dollar doesn't go as far as it did just a few years ago and increasingly given how American's like to drive big trucks live in big houses they cannot afford to do that on stagnant (really net negative wages if you take inflation) salary... For example last year I got a 1.5% raise, which means in effect I'm getting paid less and less each passing year....

Trade with China has been what was holding this inflation back these decades.... Now that the world has crossed the inflection point threshold of global peak resources/energy and really starting to getting hit hard by the consequences of climate change etc its very much not only zero-sum in the biggest picture (at least from the perspective of resources being the rate limiting factor) but one could say its a negative-sum game where one's access to the pie pool gets smaller as the total ever shrinks....

So China's tech ascension, dual circulation, bootstrapping its own domestic consumption, digital Yuan, semiconductor self sufficiency, all this is geared at bypassing the inefficies of having to grow by propping up Uncle Sam as a middle man that makes money off China's back (harvesting China) but providing increasingly very little in return (as China catches up and surpasses the US in tech and knowledge/skills and as US continues it dollar weaponization and sanctions so that China cannot use the dollars its earned to buy the things it needs or wants etc) then it becomes increasingly obvious that the only way forward for China is to decouple from the US sooner or later or else the US sinking ship is going to drown and take down China with it.....

All this talk about China collapse is just projection and fear of precisely what is going to happen to US
 

In4ser

Junior Member
Thats an extremely low number. I think US might be entering stagflation territory

Btw Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model is going to be updated today for Q3 growth
I think so too. Despite the 'Great Resignation,' I'm finding that wages are still flat since companies are not willing to provide increases because of rising costs due to inflation. However, if most Americans are already suffering from high debt, low savings, and increased costs for goods and services, then this could only translate to diminished consumer spending (aside from essentials).

This is a huge problem for the US because its economy runs mostly upon domestic consumption and without it to fuel demand, and growth that can only be maintained by government debt and spending which is already a gigantic bubble. The US may be fine for now because of low interest rates and easy credit allowing indebted and low-margin companies and people to stay afloat, but once the tide goes out, you will find that the Emperor wears no clothes.
 
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LesAdieux

Junior Member
an energy crisis is gathering clouds, it will further fuel the inflation, a perfect storm is on the horizon. the energy crisis could not arrive at a worse time. oil was the principal player in the 1970s inflation saga, it's back now.

the US economy is over leveraged and addicted to cheap money, high leverage makes the economy vulnerable to interest hike, many firms and households won't be able to service their debts.

The markets are elevated: the Trinity Bubbles: stock, bond, real estate, will burst one by one. it may wipe 30% net worth off the US national account, and the strong negative wealth effect will impact the economy, especially consumption.

the policies are over stretched: zero interest rate, unbounded money supply, hefty stimulus packages. the economy has gotten used to these. when the punch bowl is taken away, the economy will show its true colors.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now that the world has crossed the inflection point threshold of global peak resources/energy and really starting to getting hit hard by the consequences of climate change etc
Such a depressing future isn't inevitable. As I have noted elsewhere, only a tiny fraction of the Gobi Desert, if covered by solar panels, would satisfy China's energy needs. I mean it -- this has the potential to replace EVERY other energy source in China, even coal and hydro. But we can't just sit and waste time; we'll have to build the solar farms (and the storage batteries), or the solar power satellites.


All this talk about China collapse is just projection and fear of precisely what is going to happen to US
Yes.
 

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