American Economics Thread

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
LOL, they have no alternative. China is still buying hordes of American ICs.

LOL, CPI on a 2019-2021 CAGR basis is fine. Imports from China are what, 3% of US GDP (?). The stimulus was spent in the United States, most consumer spending is on non-traded services

Yeah, who won? Afghanistan economic growth has been far slower than the United States.

The United States can still ride out its hegemony by starting a war in the Taiwan Straits and denying China access to technology intermedaries or stopping trade (since China exports more), and thus making sure that China has a demographic crisis and will never surpass the US in GDP (esp. since the US is going to brain drain the entire world with millions of migrants while everyone else is in crisis, money print to export inflation to the rest of the world but stimulating employment and growth at home, and improve physical & human capital with community college access/infrastructure/etc). The War over Taiwan will cost China more lives and GDP and birth rates as well as banning China from SWIFT and banning China from trade and forcing other countries to ban China from trade if they want SWIFT access as well as the CIA destabilizng China with their hundreds of thousands of agents

And if China is not buying those American ICs, the American brands would go bankrupt.

By the way, a lot of those American ICs are fabbed in Korea, Taiwan and Singapore.

If Afghanistan economic growth has been far slower, than its the fault of the US since Afghanistan has been effectively under US rule.

Exports from the US to China are what % of China's GDP? Oh right 0.3%

Millions of migrants to the US? What a joke. Your Republican party and 50% of the US population would be against it.

China's demographic crisis? If you have a one child policy, your population will remain the same after a generation, and there is more than enough time to change that policy. In addition the productivity per person would also rise.

Banning China from SWIFT would lead to the quick collapse of SWIFT. That's like cutting yourself off from your bank, your factory and your grocery at the same time.

Wait where is the CIA's hundreds of thousands of agents? What are you smoking?

The country is a mess. You don't fix this by printing more paper. Don't try to fix Afghanistan when we can't fix our own streets.



 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Someone sounds like they bought puts and lost. What does China have to do with it? The US doesn't need China and vice versa. If an asset manager like Peter Schiff can't beat a passive index, why do you care for their thoughts on macro? (esp. since they've never been right)

They are also not wrong since gold held up its value and is less likely to crash. Lets not forget the S&P500 today is not the same S&P500 20 years ago. Look what happened to names like GE.

The US needs China as China is the US counter to inflation. If it were not for cheap Chinese goods, the country would already be in turmoil due to the high cost of living and zero real wage growth over decades. In fact, the sharpest and most painful rises are things that are local to the US economy and cannot be solved by importation --- housing prices, healthcare and medical expenses, and the costs of higher education.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
LOL, they have no alternative. China is still buying hordes of American ICs.

LOL, CPI on a 2019-2021 CAGR basis is fine. Imports from China are what, 3% of US GDP (?). The stimulus was spent in the United States, most consumer spending is on non-traded services

Yeah, who won? Afghanistan economic growth has been far slower than the United States.

The United States can still ride out its hegemony by starting a war in the Taiwan Straits and denying China access to technology intermedaries or stopping trade (since China exports more), and thus making sure that China has a demographic crisis and will never surpass the US in GDP (esp. since the US is going to brain drain the entire world with millions of migrants while everyone else is in crisis, money print to export inflation to the rest of the world but stimulating employment and growth at home, and improve physical & human capital with community college access/infrastructure/etc). The War over Taiwan will cost China more lives and GDP and birth rates as well as banning China from SWIFT and banning China from trade and forcing other countries to ban China from trade if they want SWIFT access as well as the CIA destabilizng China with their hundreds of thousands of agents
You live in a fantasy world and you are coming here to degrade the quality of conversation on a serious thread. There are China bashing forums you could go and 'China bad America good' all day. @administrator needs to do something about this jaihind
 

coolieno99

Junior Member
That means China will be always 2 generation behind the leader. It will be OK if China doesnt pursue to become technology leader.

Even the laggard Europe now plan to close the gap with the leader TSMC and Samsung.
China will never stop advance research and developments. The new Beijing 4th generation synchrotron under construction should be ready for operation in 2025. It has the capability to produce hard X-ray. The Shanghai Soft X-ray Free Electron Facility started operation couple months ago. It has the capability to generate soft x-ray. EUV has shorter wavelength than DUV. This enable EUV litho tool to make smaller transistor than DUV litho tool. Soft X-ray has shorter wavelength than EUV. Theoretically a Soft X-ray litho tool can make smaller transistor than EUV litho tool. But this scenario is far into the future. Similiar argument can be applied to Hard X-ray vs. Soft X-ray. With this scenario far, far into the future.
 

MortyandRick

Junior Member
Registered Member
LOL, they have no alternative. China is still buying hordes of American ICs.

LOL, CPI on a 2019-2021 CAGR basis is fine. Imports from China are what, 3% of US GDP (?). The stimulus was spent in the United States, most consumer spending is on non-traded services

Yeah, who won? Afghanistan economic growth has been far slower than the United States.

The United States can still ride out its hegemony by starting a war in the Taiwan Straits and denying China access to technology intermedaries or stopping trade (since China exports more), and thus making sure that China has a demographic crisis and will never surpass the US in GDP (esp. since the US is going to brain drain the entire world with millions of migrants while everyone else is in crisis, money print to export inflation to the rest of the world but stimulating employment and growth at home, and improve physical & human capital with community college access/infrastructure/etc). The War over Taiwan will cost China more lives and GDP and birth rates as well as banning China from SWIFT and banning China from trade and forcing other countries to ban China from trade if they want SWIFT access as well as the CIA destabilizng China with their hundreds of thousands of agents
I always find your posts amusing. This may be the wrong thread for this but I had to point out. Lots of the stuff you say is easier said than done. If the US can easily start a war over Taiwan and ban China from SWIFT, and easily win, then why haven't they done so already?

In fact they've been talking about banning Russia from SWIFT, why haven't they done so already? Did the US defend Georgia against Russia and go to war? Did US defend Ukraine against Russia after they supported Ukraine colored uprising? The truth is the US will only force client states to fight with the false sense of security but when it comes to the US fighting, they only pick on countries much weaker then themselves eg. Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Balkans, south america. They can't even attack Iran, even though they want to. Even in Afghanistan they lost. So in reality, even with all the power the US has, it's not that easy, so calm down buddy.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Inflation, inflation, and inflation. Need not to say more.
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soaring costs for fertilizer and propane on top of a nearly 30% jump in rent.
Deere & Co., the largest maker of agricultural machinery, warned Friday that rising costs and supply-chain snags will intensify into next year.
Well, why do you guys keep droning on about "Inflation stiflation" when according to the most prominent and most astute financial whiz person in the world @SleepyStudent there's no such thing as Inflation and that the U.S. free printing of money, commonly known as Q.E. is not something to be even concerned about since the U.S. economy continues to grow at an apparent break neck speed with no care in the world whatever it does with it's financial sheet. Worrying about Inflation is for losers.
 
D

Deleted member 15949

Guest
Inflation, inflation, and inflation. Need not to say more.
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soaring costs for fertilizer and propane on top of a nearly 30% jump in rent.
Deere & Co., the largest maker of agricultural machinery, warned Friday that rising costs and supply-chain snags will intensify into next year.
Oh no, not Minnestota farmers. That's like 0.01% of GDP
 
D

Deleted member 15949

Guest
Those capacities are all double-edged with diminshing desired effect and magnifying self-harm. Business is all about trust and oppertunities. The more you make it a weapon, the less trust there is and the more you restrict, the more oppertunities you kill.
Except, no. 90% of US trade is contained within the Western Hemisphere. The same cannot be said about China. The US is basically autarkic, China is not and thus China would suffer more.
These don't connect. By recognizing the ROC, the US would be seen as incredibly desperate on the international stage and the business with China that drives America's economy would be shrivelled up.
Yeah, China would start a war (that the US would win) and China would have more casualities and hurt more of its trading partners. WIN WIN WIN for the United States
They're just funsies. China gets to work and builds concrete land in the middle of the ocean while the US makes funsies. It only acts seriously on small weak countries... and that apparently doesn't always work either.
Then why is China so mad about the CVNs?
They can block off USD access to small countries with no economic impact but using that against China is crippling their own currency and making it worthless for trade with the largest trading country there is.
Then why do even Chinese officials care so much about dollar hegemony?
They've used many of them and they've basically all backfired with China defending against their intended effects but the US leaving themselves wide open to eat the double-edged side-effects.
Nope. In 2H 2019, China's growth rate fell below 6% but the US growth rate kept soaring.
Of course they were; they were goat farmers using old AKs. Bringing this point up is moving the goalpost way out of the stadium because nobody thought that the US would be defeated so convincincly with the Taliban in full control before the US is even done evacuating.
Yeah so in a US/China contest where the goal is to be the hegemon, the US can keep inflicting more damage onto China than vice-versa so the US always win.
Already happening. Doesn't work, never worked. China always breaks through and becomes self-sufficient.
And has inefficient allocation and has growth rates massively harmed.
China trades with the world. The US initiated the trade war and shot itself in the foot. Meanwhile, China expanded trading partners all over the globe and its trade increased despite a drop in business with the US.
It would have been larger if the US didn't do tariffs and the tariffs hurt China more than the US so the US wins.
Trade... with a demographic crisis? Doesn't work. You imagined it. If the US could stop it, they are doing everything they can to do it... and failing. That's why they're so desperate. If they had any cards worth a shit left, they'd still be chill ol' Captain America; now the US is like that skinny little freak in a loincloth going on and on all day about getting his ring except the US is going on and on all day about hatred for China.
It's a smart strategy, adaptive as conditions changed. Now, all Chinese infrastructure projects in the developed world are dead in the water, Huawei's market share is gone in Europe, the EU-China CAI is dead, and that's only the start of China's European market access.
You mean labor drain. Brain drain turns into brain circulation and hits the US right back, besides, what brain drain will they get from poor migrants?
Most of US history? If the US closed immigration in 1800, the US would only have 100M people. It now has 330M very productive people. Heck, even Alabama has a higher GDPPC than China.
The rest of the world can print money too or they can let USD oversupply cause the exchange rates to tip until the US is worthless internationally.
So they devalue their own currencies and thus have import inflation. Even better for the US since the EMs print themselves into the ground and that hurts China's exports markets but it doesn't hurt the US since the US is functionally autarkic.
You must be talking about a different country LOL. The US just wastes money on wars.
Nope. The US war machine is responsible for cutting edge research in computing, in materials science and in integrated circuits that make China's lithography and aircraft engines a joke. And even then, state governments spend so much money on capital formation and now the federla government is only going to spend more. So much capital formation in the pipeline
The war will be over with China the victor before the US even knows how to get on it.
Nope. Shanghai, Xiamen and Guangzhou will be in shambles but San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle will see life continue as norma.
That's a great way to kill SWIFT and make the dollar useless. Giving people USD that can't be traded for Chinese goods is like your boss paying you in currency that can't be used to buy anything made in China. Check the tags and see how restricting that "cash" is. If they did this, it would be great for China, because it gives China all the excuse it needs to start its own international financial system and being a much larger exporter than the US, this system would grow explosively until it became dominant.
Nope. It would force all the world to choose between the US & China and they always choose the US (just look at the Israeli desalination plant, the UK nuclear plant, the UK HS2, Huawei, etc, etc). They always always always choose the US because US coercieve capacities are amazing.
China's stable and Hong Kong is stabilizing by the day. Meanwhile, the US suffered massive riots and even an attack on thier own capital building. Must be easy the test they give you to join the CIA LOL
LOL, a few CIA agents caused terrorism in Xinjiang and that caused China to spend billions of dollars on counterterrorism and gave the US a tool to sabotage the EU-China CAI and a pretext for more sanctions. It cost the US a few thousand dollars and China tens of billions. The US controls this escalation ladder
 
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