American Economics Thread

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Deleted member 15949

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I see now if I look for the seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter growth, I get this:
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But something doesn't add up. For China's 4 quarters in 2019, the numbers are 2.0, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2 while America's numbers for those 4 quarters are 2.9, 1.5, 2.6, 2.4. Basically, America's numbers are all higher across the board but for 2019, China's GDP growth was 6.1% while America's was 2.3%. How can this be?
Chinese Q/Q numbers are seasonally adjusted but not annualized, US Q/Q is seasonally adjusted and annualized. 4Q20 -> 1Q21 growth, China grew slower than the United States since both NBS and BEA adjust for seasonal variation
 

wxw456

New Member
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I see now if I look for the seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter growth, I get this:
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But something doesn't add up. For China's 4 quarters in 2019, the numbers are 2.0, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2 while America's numbers for those 4 quarters are 2.9, 1.5, 2.6, 2.4. Basically, America's numbers are all higher across the board but for 2019, China's GDP growth was 6.1% while America's was 2.3%. How can this be?
The difference is that the numbers for China are the change in GDP compared to the previous quarter and the numbers for the US are the change over the same quarter of the previous year. I used the OECD published data to illustrate the difference (source:
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):

Quarterly Growth rates of Real GDP, change over previous quarter (percentage)
Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021
China2.01.21.21.2-9.711.63.02.60.6
US0.70.40.60.6-1.3-9.07.51.11.6

Quarterly Growth rates of Real GDP, change over same quarter previous year (percentage)
Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021
China6.36.05.95.8-6.83.24.96.518.3
US2.32.02.12.30.3-9.0-2.8-2.40.4

The thing to keep in mind with change over previous quarter growth percentage is that you need to grow at a higher percentage to cover a loss in the previous quarter. Ex. Lets say I start at 100 and I lose 10% this quarter. That means I am at 90. If I grow by 10% the next quarter, then I am 99. So I am still down -1 even though the percentage change is -10% followed by +10%.

Arguing over the Q1 2021 percentages right now is pointless because we don't have enough data to establish a long term trend and COVID disrupted the growth pattern for a lot of countries. You would need to look back at the numbers a year or two later to see if a new long term trend occurs to settle the argument. Better set an alarm clock for two years from now. xD
 

gelgoog

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Shutdown of Austin fab during freeze cost Samsung at least $268 million​

Samsung lost at least $268 million due to damaged products after its semiconductor fabrication plant in Austin was shutdown during the February's Texas freeze, according to the company.​


Samsung executives said the company's semiconductor business saw profits fall in the first quarter, mainly due to disruptions and product losses caused by the shutdown.

Samsung's Austin fab was offline for more than a month after it was shut down due to power outages during the freeze. At the time, the company declined to give specifics on how long operations were down, how much was lost in the shutdown or if there was product loss or damage.

About 71,000 wafers were affected by production disruptions, said Han Jinman, executive vice-president of Samsung’s memory chip business. He estimated the wafer loss is equivalent to $268 million to $357 million.

Semiconductor fabs are typically operational 24 hours a day for years on end. Each batch of wafers — a thin slice of semiconductor used for the fabrication of integrated circuits — can take 45 to 60 days to make, so a shutdown of any length can mean a loss of weeks of work. Restoring a fab is also a complicated process, and even in the best of circumstances can take a week.

The Samsung fab was one of a number of Austin's largest industrial power users that was ordered by the city to idle or shut down operations the week of Feb.15, as millions of Texas homes and businesses lost electricity and the state's power grid came close to a total shutdown.

NXP Semiconductors was also among the facilities that were shut down in February, as its two Austin fabrication facilities were offline for nearly a month. In March, the company estimated the shutdown would result in a $100 million loss in revenue and a month of wafer production.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
Not that I am surprised. A great way to become a millionaire but just don't be greedy or stupid.
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Ain't that America!

That is why America is great, the land of opportunity.

Maybe it is just my imagination, but lately there seems a lot more opportunity in striking it rich in America with political bs than the more traditional methods.

They said that Hilary had something like a few hundred million in her and Bill's charity. Then they disbanded their charity and then they do not have to explain anything about the money.

Now that is the way to do it. Through thick and thin, Bill and Hilary did it together for themselves and their family. Bill and Melinda Gates should have asked them for relationship advice.

:oops:
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
Ain't that America!

That is why America is great, the land of opportunity.

Maybe it is just my imagination, but lately there seems a lot more opportunity in striking it rich in America with political bs than the more traditional methods.

They said that Hilary had something like a few hundred million in her and Bill's charity. Then they disbanded their charity and then they do not have to explain anything about the money.

Now that is the way to do it. Through thick and thin, Bill and Hilary did it together for themselves and their family. Bill and Melinda Gates should have asked them for relationship advice.

:oops:

Bannon did the same thing, he was pardoned by Trump.
 
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