American Economics Thread

kentchang

Junior Member
Registered Member
I would say nothing, there will be no losses.

The games those people play at that level of financial markets, is radically different than the rest of us retail customers.

If someone owns a trillion dollars worth of debt, they will hedge it all completely with some exotic derivative.

Outside of the players in that world, outside of that world no one cares about that because the retail customer generally do not have that type of funds nor are they really that interested in those weird games.
Ordinary people should care. Just ask the Japanese what happened to their UST investment (relative to the Yen) after the Plaza Accord.

Traders hedge but not central banks. Central banks always carry long positions.

When you buy futures to hedge your bond transactions, there is a cost and although you are protected from the ups and downs of the bond price, you are still fully exposed to the currency market, inflation, and other risks.

Both forex rate and inflation have been consistently used by the U.S. to pay back its debt cheaply. This is the power of having the world's reserve currency.

The Fed was in the process of raising the interest rate when the pandemic hit. Now the Fed has very few monetary tools left.

There is a real risk/temptation for the U.S. to create a political crisis/instability somewhere to trigger a flight to safety (i.e. reason buy more UST). From this perspective, Trump was actually good for America. Relative to Euro and JGB markets, UST is still attractive.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
Ordinary people should care. Just ask the Japanese what happened to their UST investment (relative to the Yen) after the Plaza Accord.

Traders hedge but not central banks. Central banks always carry long positions.

When you buy futures to hedge your bond transactions, there is a cost and although you are protected from the ups and downs of the bond price, you are still fully exposed to the currency market, inflation, and other risks.

Both forex rate and inflation have been consistently used by the U.S. to pay back its debt cheaply. This is the power of having the world's reserve currency.

The Fed was in the process of raising the interest rate when the pandemic hit. Now the Fed has very few monetary tools left.

There is a real risk/temptation for the U.S. to create a political crisis/instability somewhere to trigger a flight to safety (i.e. reason buy more UST). From this perspective, Trump was actually good for America. Relative to Euro and JGB markets, UST is still attractive.
What you are talking about, that mostly is business as usual.

The market will go where it eventually wants to go.

We retail customers still have no means to play the game the big investment banks, hedge funds, and central banks are playing.

The game is hard enough to care about someone else's positions, what they hold.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
US can improve economic situation by making China reduce tariffs.

But China would request tariff reductions and removal of sanctions on Chinese companies.
@localizer

So Trump had taken away the US bargaining power, cause the Chinese having sanction numerous time had become immune , learned to live and produce within her means. ;)
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Exactly, China doesn't really care at this point because China has become the foundation of this world.
@localizer

A basic economic question , since the US gov't had bail out wall street ,why not nationalized a portion of their holdings , an ex BLACKROCK they had a large real estate holding , why not seized it (as payment for the loan) and make those an affordable housing for the poor, so they had the savings to spend on MAGA 2.0 .
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
@localizer

A basic economic question , since the US gov't had bail out wall street ,why not nationalized a portion of their holdings , an ex BLACKROCK they had a large real estate holding , why not seized it (as payment for the loan) and make an affordable housing for the poor, so they had the savings to spend on MAGA 2.0 .

Wall street resisted that. What happened in 2008 was instead of becoming a shareholder, US government gave out cheap loans collateralized by toxic assets (like those foreclosed homes) that dragged down the banks in the first place.

I believe there are rules that prevent nationalization in the US. But it seems GM was kinda nationalized.

Wiki:
  • 2009: Some economists consider the government's actions through the
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    and the
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    with regards to
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    to have been a partial nationalization.
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    Proposal was made that banks like
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    be brought under a
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    model similar to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that some of their "good assets" be dropped into newly created "good bank" subsidiaries (presumably under new management), and the remaining "bad assets" be left to be managed under the supervision of a
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    structure.
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    The government's actions with regard to
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    in replacing the
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    with a government-approved CEO is likewise being considered as nationalization.
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    On June 1, 2009,
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    during the
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    , with the government investing up to $50 billion in
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    and taking 60% ownership in the company. In addition to a U.S. Government ownership, the Governments of
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    and
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    also took ownership of 7.9% and 3.8% of General Motors, respectively.
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    President
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    stated that the nationalization was temporary, saying, "We are acting as reluctant shareholders because that is the only way to help GM succeed"
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I think America's system started to breakdown ever since it came off the gold standard which provided a sound monetary system.

Once the government became a printing press and all the banks was still private, the private interests started to take advantage of the government by becoming too big to fail. Banks cannot take advantage of anyone under a gold standard.


CCP has total control of the banks which helps to control the risks.
 
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