2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

TPenglake said:

Looks like Trump's personal dislike of Zelensky got the better of any potential anti-drone defenses the GCC could be using.

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Trump can dislike him all he likes, they are deploying Ukraine made anti-drone drones.

tokenanalyst said:

before fighting the Iranians soldiers that are in the Island apart from massive shelling from the shores.

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Not to mention artillery and all that.

Meanwhile I saw this;




Essentially, while oil futures arent reacting that crazily partially because investors are stupid, and Us treasury is manipulating.
The physical oil being sold right now due to shortage in asia is almost +$38 over the futures.
So essentially its being sold at $130-140

jiajia99 said:

I noticed something, has anyone heard from anyone on the Israeli leadership other then Bibi whose survival I am not sure is true due to the possibility AI might be used.

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Netanyaho is fine, his recent video in which he talks about 'The messiah isnt here this thursday but in future' isnt ai or anything,
Other leader do come on tv, like president etc and minister but I havnt seen Ben-gvir oddly.

jiajia99 said:

if Israel ceases to function as a viable state and if U.S. military capability is degraded enough,

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Israel isnt being hit like that it ceases to be viable state, and it works more as a military base -with family

Urabrother said:

Russia can also help Iran by continue blockade oil and gas sales to EU and US.

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Russian is poised to make $10+ billion due to this shortage, its too lucrative not to sell.

Moonscape said:

Yeah. I think one of the most underappreciated logistical aspects of this conflict is that chart (can someone find it?) where Israel has 60% dependence on desalination for fresh water, some of the GCC countries have a 90% dependence on desal, and Iran has a 3% dependence. Iran can "live off the land" so to speak and fight this war for the foreseeable future. Israel and its Gulf monarchy buddies can not. They require lots of easily destroyed fancy equipment for water and lots of easily destroyed slow and vulnerable ships/airplanes for food.

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Yep, Israel hit 1 desal plant in Iran, Iran hit desal in gulf and israel desal plant too.
They are much more in danger of that than iran.

tokenanalyst said:

Forget man, this is not command and conquer, people can't come with things at last moment, this is a big army with lot of firepower. Any landing have to survive waves of antiship missiles, mines, drones before fighting the Iranians soldiers that are in the Island apart from massive shelling from the shores.

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It would be Saving Private Ryan, but with more human wave and way more dead. Most likelly half of the landing units would be dead. Or more.

There hasn't been any succesfull landing operation in the Ukrainan war . Every single one defeated.

And any landing operation in Iran would be way more difficult. WAAAAAAY more.

Proton said:

Think any landing would be aimed at capturing the islands of the strait, Qeshm in particular. Big risk involved as ships would be very exposed, but if successful it will certainly weaken Irans position.

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Keep in mind the Island is over 100km long and closest distance to the mainland is 2.5km, so it needs a proper garrison to defend and distance is big enough that logistics can be disrupted.

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What do you think it even means by "a proper garrison to defend"? What do you think this is? Ancient warfare where two armies setup formations and challenge each other to battle? The garrison will just get killed by drones from the mainland while unable to do anything in return because they can't swim across 2 km of water, that's all.

If they had working AD against drones they'd be able to defend the tankers and won't need any boots to begin with. If they're putting boots on ground that means there's no AD in which case the only contribute troops could make is in a full scale land invasion to push inland.

In no scenario can a few thousand USMC make any difference other than die.

jiajia99 said:

I noticed something, has anyone heard from anyone on the Israeli leadership other then Bibi whose survival I am not sure is true due to the possibility AI might be used. If Iran maintains its course and renders Israel incapable of existing as a state, well howling would it take for the people to surrender or flee given that their is a limit to food, water and energy that could tap into during constant bombardment happening in its commercial central with most of, if not all of its air defenses completely exhausted.

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Some say they are probably dead but who knows. What we know is that a least the IDF and the Israeli government is doing what they do best, bombing civilians and doing ethnic cleansing, in Lebanon, they don't have time for societal and economic collapse, they have biggest mercenary gentile army in human history lead by the kafir <his tatoo> Pete Hegseth bleeding themselves to create enough distraction for them to do so.

People think that the Iranians are blindly attacking Israel but I don't think that is the case, I think their missiles are pretty accurate. What they are doing now is dismantling Israel power projection capabilities, the government, the military, the tech industry, their intelligence, And tick for tack attacks in economic targets, anything that would allow them to attack Iran again in the future and their will continue until everything is dismantled. either way the damage is pretty high, my guess is they are thinking they could compensate by taking Lebanon.

Is incredible to think who wants to live in permanent state of wars by their own choice, constant shelling, constant missiles, in a discredit country, my guess is that most passport holders are just going to go and never come back, leaving everything to Orthodox Jews and Palestinians. But who knows there is a lot Jim Jones cult mentality vibes there.

Moonscape said:

Yeah. I think one of the most underappreciated logistical aspects of this conflict is that chart (can someone find it?) where Israel has 60% dependence on desalination for fresh water, some of the GCC countries have a 90% dependence on desal, and Iran has a 3% dependence. Iran can "live off the land" so to speak and fight this war for the foreseeable future. Israel and its Gulf monarchy buddies can not. They require lots of easily destroyed fancy equipment for water and lots of easily destroyed slow and vulnerable ships/airplanes for food.

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Iran is like China. Ancient civilization arose in these places because they had the basics for stone age human civilization like food.

You'd be surprised how many places on Earth would be depopulated or severely reduced in population without industrialization and global trade. Americans makes fun of North Korea but half their buddies in EU and Asia would fare worse than North Korea under equal sanctions.

Ser Keir may have dropped the ball when it comes to 'Operation Epic Fury', but BBC's loyality towards Epstein clan is iron clad.

iewgnem said:

What do you think it even means by "a proper garrison to defend"? What do you think this is? Ancient warfare where two armies setup formations and challenge each other to battle? The garrison will just get killed by drones from the mainland while unable to do anything in return because they can't swim across 2 km of water, that's all.

If they had working AD against drones they'd be able to defend the tankers and won't need any boots to begin with. If they're putting boots on ground that means there's no AD in which case the only contribute troops could make is in a full scale land invasion to push inland.

In no scenario can a few thousand USMC make any difference other than die.

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You do realize it's a 1500 square kilometer island with 150,000 inhabitants?

It seems like you imagine a small empty rock.

tokenanalyst said:

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Damn, how come Iran is so good at increasing their United Front value? At this rate flying moped parts are going to have to mysteriously show up in the mountains.

Temstar said:

Damn, how come Iran is so good at increasing their United Front value? At this rate flying moped parts are going to have to mysteriously show up in the mountains.

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They could make good revenue charging for entering the Gulf.