2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Sometimes I read things like this by journalist Richard Medhurst and like 'God I hope not'

He has been saying past 2 months that all of things we say that US is making mistakes or lost its edge, its actually not. They locked down Medeast/gulf even more and shifted oil trade toward them for their oil companies.

AlexYe said:

He has been saying past 2 months that all of things we say that US is making mistakes or lost its edge, its actually not. They locked down Medeast/gulf even more and shifted oil trade toward them for their oil companies.

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How, exactly?. The US doesn't have the refining capacity to supply everybody nor their own oil can be refined everywhere to compensate for it.

Venezuelan heavy oil can only be refined in country and most of the refineries are years away from ever being operational again, and even if they were right now, it still wouldn't be enough. Then there is the fact of the massive land borders in the region which is where the US geographical isolation that provided an advantage during wars, might play against them.

sheogorath said:

How, exactly?. The US doesn't have the refining capacity to supply everybody nor their own oil can be refined everywhere to compensate for it.

Venezuelan heavy oil can only be refined in country and most of the refineries are years away from ever being operational again, and even if they were right now, it still wouldn't be enough. Then there is the fact of the massive land borders in the region which is where the US geographical isolation that provided an advantage during wars, might play against them.

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I dont understand either especially because US is still withdrawing oil from SPR, their own oil production doesnt matter here at all.
And 2 of the 4 caves are permanently damaged, They are reaching operational limits where the water from the ground is starting to seep into the caves and dissolving the salt, They already start to pull both sweet and sour oil too, as in they started hitting the lower level oil.
They cant keep it up, neither can rest of the world.

So while US companies will benefit ofcourse, US as a whole doesnt gain any advantage shifting the trade route to US and block MED n Russia(via ukraine) from oil out.

AlexYe said:

I dont understand either especially because US is still withdrawing oil from SPR, their own oil production doesnt matter here at all.
And 2 of the 4 caves are permanently damaged, They are reaching operational limits where the water from the ground is starting to seep into the caves and dissolving the salt, They already start to pull both sweet and sour oil too, as in they started hitting the lower level oil.
They cant keep it up, neither can rest of the world.

So while US companies will benefit ofcourse, US as a whole doesnt gain any advantage shifting the trade route to US and block MED n Russia(via ukraine) from oil out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2074875480553947451

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That is a much bigger estimate for minimum operating level than i read, which is approx 100-200M

another505 said:

That is a much bigger estimate for minimum operating level than i read, which is approx 100-200M

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As I understand it cant even reach 160M because at that point it will collapse, pipes will start to lose pressure, and they have to keep some for military purposes. The limit is at around 250M at which point US will have to start rationing /reduce usage.

AlexYe said:

As I understand it cant even reach 160M because at that point it will collapse, pipes will start to lose pressure, and they have to keep some for military purposes. The limit is at around 250M at which point US will have to start rationing /reduce usage

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So many numbers on this being thrown around on the internet. I take it a grain of salt now. There is a limit but perhaps only a few real experts knkw.

another505 said:

So many numbers on this being thrown around on the internet. I take it a grain of salt now. There is a limit but perhaps only a few real experts knkw.

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250 million is the recommended level back in the 1970s when they were designing it. The SPR has been pumped in and out several times since then. More than it was designed for. Also 250 million happens to be the congressional minimum.

Here’s a quote from Biden’s former Energy Secretary from 1 month ago.

You get to, l don't know anyone who believes we can go below 300. I know plenty of people who think we can't get near 300 because physically you will damage the caverns where the oil is stored.

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So 300 million barrels is sort of the bottom. It's not zero. because we don't know, and, and to be clear, you're not saying we, because no one exactly knows

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So there is technically less then 19 million.

FriedButter said:

250 million is the recommended level back in the 1970s when they were designing it. The SPR has been pumped in and out several times since then. More than it was designed for. Also 250 million happens to be the congressional minimum.

Here’s a quote from Biden’s former Energy Secretary from 1 month ago.




So there is technically less then 19 million.

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Nobody knows exactly but leave it to GOD TRUMP. He knows that SPR can go down lowly to 150 million. Anyway, why would he even care in order to win.

another505 said:

So many numbers on this being thrown around on the internet. I take it a grain of salt now. There is a limit but perhaps only a few real experts knkw.

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One of the main reasons for different estimates is because of projections, as in when they started pulling they were doing 4.7Mil barrels a day, so people did the math from that to estimate how low it must be right now.
But thing is that that daily draw has been reduced from 4.7 to like 2.5Mil, people making graphs based on this data show more so

FriedButter said:

250 million is the recommended level back in the 1970s when they were designing it. The SPR has been pumped in and out several times since then. More than it was designed for. Also 250 million happens to be the congressional minimum.

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Yes this, they were designed with life time of 25 years (its been way more than that) and only to be drawn out 5 times, its been 9 times now. 2 of 4 caves are so damaged after covid draw that they can be used anymore either and Covid pull out was drawn out slowly.
trump admin is pulling out much faster than recommended and doing perma damage.

Netanyaho has given the haredim groups what they wanted, exemption from IDF draft,