2025 Victory Day parade thread (workup, 3rd Sept)

[Blitzo]

Yankee mentioned in the podcast that he would expect US side to say something like "what that's a SS-18 Satan!" and the words "ampoulized" was said. But I'm not sure if he used ampoulized ICBM as an analogy for "some new tech that we haven't seen before in PLARF" or it is specifically intended to describe this new heavy silo based ICBM.

Tbh at this stage unless the usual suspects straight up declare what we should expect, this kind of esoteric meme-winking is becoming more effort than it is usually worth, especially in the form of hour long podcasts where maybe a few minutes are actually useful to the effort of watching for PLA developments.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

From ICBM perspective, I think the big new tech that China can do that can really change the game is a very cheap ICBM that can strike CONUS conventionally. The problem with a conventional ICBM is its too expensive to make the ICBM. So, if China can solve that issue, it will be a big game changer,

In the nuclear realm DF-41 is pretty much all they need. Yes, things like Hypersonic glide vehicle and FOBS would help make it even less likely to get intercepted. But ICBM interception tech is still too weak to really matter now.

 

[bsdnf]

Although the number of parade formations has increased to 80 this year, the trio still complained that some equipment will not be on the stage. Just like we did not see the PCL-161 and 171 in the 2019 parade, those from the Mengshi family (HQ-13, 35mm revolver gun, and laser air defense vehicle etc) maybe none of them will come.

Especially this year, the focus is on displaying air defense and hypersonic missiles. The navy may also display new missiles, and there may be more than one YJ-XX. The 10 additional formations are simply not enough.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Someone's summarization of yesterday (or one of the latest) night's Chahuahui Podcast (which probably isn't exactly news by this point):

1. A total of 80 marching formations(?) will join the parade
2. New generation of land equipments (e.g. 4th-generation tanks) will join the parade
3. Showcase of (new?) torpedoes
4. Hypersonic missiles aren't just/limited to DF-27
5. ICBMs aren't just/limited to DF-41
6. New SAMs with designation HQ-XXX (triple digits)
7. Z-21 will not be able to join the parade (which is a shame)
8. The August 1st (acrobatics team?) will join the parade last

 

[Blitzo]

Summarization of yesterday night's Chahuahui:

1. A total of 80 marchign formations(?) will join the parade
2. New generation of land equipments (e.g. 4th-generation tanks) will join the parade
3. Showcase of (new?) torpedoes
4. Hypersonic missiles aren't just/limited to DF-27
5. ICBMs aren't just/limited to DF-41
6. New SAMs with designation HQ-XXX (triple digits)
7. Z-21 will not be able to join the parade (which is a shame)
8. The August 1st (acrobatics team?) will join the parade last

Given Z-21 only first flew in early 2024, it's fairly reasonable for it to not be present at the parade.

In terms of the "newest" flying aircraft type that will be present at the parade, it would probably be the J-35A that first flew in Sept 2023 -- but even that aircraft is a land based variant of the J-35 which first flew in Oct 2021, likely with very similar flying dynamics and significant existing risk reduction due to that.

Z-21, while adopting the same/very similar propulsion and drive train to Z-20, likely has some different flight dynamics and control laws given the rest of the airframe is rather different from Z-20 and naturally will need to have a bit more testing done before it is mature enough for approaching LRIP (and thus meet the standard for parade participation).

 

[Neurosmith]

7. Z-21 will not be able to join the parade (which is a shame)

Quite surprising if true, considering that the project is allegedly meant to be a quickly-available solution for the PLA Army Aviation units.

 

[Blitzo]

Quite surprising if true, considering that the project is allegedly meant to be a quickly-available solution for the PLA Army Aviation units.

It first flew in January 2024.

"Quickly available" could still mean a 2-4 year development schedule until LRIP, relative to 4-6 or longer for a clean sheet design with a brand new drivetrain.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Although the number of parade formations has increased to 80 this year, the trio still complained that some equipment will not be on the stage. Just like we did not see the PCL-161 and 171 in the 2019 parade, those from the Mengshi family (HQ-13, 35mm revolver gun, and laser air defense vehicle etc) maybe none of them will come.

Especially this year, the focus is on displaying air defense and hypersonic missiles. The navy may also display new missiles, and there may be more than one YJ-XX. The 10 additional formations are simply not enough.

They have to keep some for the 2029 parade just 4 years away. Less time to make progress in 4 years. They also have the tradition of changing to new uniforms in the X9 parades. So, we may see new uniforms in the 29 parade.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

DF-41 is a larger missile with MIRV capability. A notional Chinese MGM-134A equivalent is more analogous to DF-31AG.

I don't think so. The MGM-134A's weight is only about 15 tons - A truly compact ICBM, per se. In the meantime, the DF-31AG is at least 2.8 times heavier.

If that particular missile is truly China's counterpart to the Midgetman, then I believe that the missile could potentially offer options of conventional strikes against strategic targets at ICBM ranges (e.g. INDOPACOM HQ at Oahu or Pine Gap in Central Australia), whether by using conventional-design or HGV warheads - Without having to waste larger ICBMs that would otherwise better reserved for nuclear strikes.

Though, said missile would have to be somewhat heavier than the Midgetman, given the latter's rather limited payload capacity (~300 kilograms).

 

[magmunta]

I don't think so. The MGM-134A's weight is only about 15 tons - A truly compact ICBM, per se. In the meantime, the DF-31AG is at least 2.7 times heavier.

If that particular missile is truly China's counterpart to the Midgetman, then I believe that the missile could potentially offer options of conventional strikes against strategic targets at ICBM ranges (e.g. INDOPACOM HQ at Oahu or Pine Gap in Central Australia), whether by using conventional-design or (waverider/dual-conical-design) HGV warheads - Without having to waste larger ICBMs that would otherwise better reserved for nuclear strikes.

Agree with that. One doesn't need a nuke to destroy an early warning radars because they are so huge, fragile and fixed that intercontinental conventional strike can destroy them. I guess in the past, accuracy was an issue but not anymore.