2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
It doesn't take a genius to figure this out. Netanyahu's goals will drive the situation, because both Trump and Iran want de-escalation, but there's a rabid dog in this story that wants to keep fighting.
To my untrained eyes, it still looked like just a crack/minor damage?
I kind of agree, given how everyone was going "Where are the bombers now?!" yesterday, it really turned out to be a remarkable nothing-burger. If their bombing achieved anything of note, they'd be publically jerking off over fancy satellite pictures, thermal overlays etc., and all we get is a bunch of tweets. And honestly, whether Iran was building a nuke or not, this bombing campaign was the best thing that could've happend to them. They get to launch missiles at Israel and hamper their regional rival with impunity, they've scored political cookie points with Turkey, the Saudis, Pakistan - they now realize just how much any agreements with the US and Israel are worth, and as bad as their military leadership might have been hit, new leaders will rise, only now they'll be less talk, and more action. To top it all off, the Persian leaders get to go "See, we told you they're after us all along", and no one can refute it now.
Israel+US made the exact same error they did in the Ukraine - took a de facto weak adversary, pointed out their weaknesses, set them on a track to grow stronger, and gave them a big push. Unless Iran's leadership is genuinely mentally defficient, they have no choice but to build nukes now, and not give a damn about any agreements, deals and accords. At the end of the day, what are the Israelis and 'murcans going to do? Air campaigns don't work, Libya, Syria, French adventures in Africa showed as much. It's a tale as old as time - you want to exact a particular course of action - you need boots on the ground. Good luck with that...
Israel+US made the exact same error they did in the Ukraine - took a de facto weak adversary, pointed out their weaknesses, set them on a track to grow stronger, and gave them a big push. Unless Iran's leadership is genuinely mentally defficient, they have no choice but to build nukes now, and not give a damn about any agreements, deals and accords. At the end of the day, what are the Israelis and 'murcans going to do? Air campaigns don't work, Libya, Syria, French adventures in Africa showed as much. It's a tale as old as time - you want to exact a particular course of action - you need boots on the ground. Good luck with that...
Appart from all available evidence they launched the missiles outside of Iran IADS area.I'm sorry Iran AD disappointed everyone again. Their AD can't detect B-2. Stealth bombers are the real nightmare for Iran. They came in & out at ease.
Again,a single BUK or eqivalent launcher could shoot down all five bomber as they flz over the bombing site.
The inconvineient question at the moment is the status of Israel's nuclear weapons.
Iran r*ping Israel in inpunity ,with heavy warheads, and on the top of they target list is the storage, maintanance and delivery systems.
This is the naval port of Haifa
And this is teh submairne pens , with the 1 PSI blast zone of a big Iranian warhead
Now, the endurance of the subs are 30 days, and afterwards what they can do ?
I am sure Pakistan/India/Russia/NK and they big bro doesn't like the idea of a kosher nuke, so most likelly all non NATO sat try to ID the subs for Iranian destruction at the moment.
And after they run out of suplies and the sub needs maintanance (30 days) what they will do ?
Sail to Greece , and ask them to store the weaponsin a spare warehouse with vegetables for a few days till they do the maintanance on the subs ?
Or just bring with the sailors to the hotel, and store them bedside?
And what happens if Iran strike the sub with nukes on board in a foreign port?
Or what happens if they dock them in Turkey, and Erdogan decide that he likes and needs the nukes more than the Israelis.
Top of that these are unique stuff,so they need the engies from Haifa to do the work as well.
So, it is a nightmare.
I am sure the Israelis never prepared for situation like this.
Iran r*ping Israel in inpunity ,with heavy warheads, and on the top of they target list is the storage, maintanance and delivery systems.
This is the naval port of Haifa
And this is teh submairne pens , with the 1 PSI blast zone of a big Iranian warhead
Now, the endurance of the subs are 30 days, and afterwards what they can do ?
I am sure Pakistan/India/Russia/NK and they big bro doesn't like the idea of a kosher nuke, so most likelly all non NATO sat try to ID the subs for Iranian destruction at the moment.
And after they run out of suplies and the sub needs maintanance (30 days) what they will do ?
Sail to Greece , and ask them to store the weaponsin a spare warehouse with vegetables for a few days till they do the maintanance on the subs ?
Or just bring with the sailors to the hotel, and store them bedside?
And what happens if Iran strike the sub with nukes on board in a foreign port?
Or what happens if they dock them in Turkey, and Erdogan decide that he likes and needs the nukes more than the Israelis.
Top of that these are unique stuff,so they need the engies from Haifa to do the work as well.
So, it is a nightmare.
I am sure the Israelis never prepared for situation like this.
Yeah, I’m not saying Trump and his administration will completely back off after this, like you said, he doesn’t really have a choice. At the end of the day, Israelis are the ones driving this, and he’s stuck in that orbit whether he likes it or not.
But what we’re seeing is his instinctive mindset. His first move was to try and cop out, give Iran a step down, to de-escalate and save face. Credit where it’s due, he at least attempted it, even if it didn’t work or won’t be allowed to stick.
Same as with the Houthis. It seems like they’re finally starting to grasp, at least vaguely, what is and isn’t within the limits of the current rotting U.S. capabilities.
But unlike with the Houthis, where they eventually backed off, this time the pressure is heavier, because Israel is pushing much harder when it comes to Iran.
And let’s be real: Israel has nothing to lose by trying to drag the U.S. deeper into this. If the whole thing blows up, it’s the U.S. that takes the hit, militarily, economically, globally. Israel will try to squeeze out any advantage it can, even if it means sacrificing the U.S. position just to delay its own decline.
That said, even if the U.S. steps up the bombing and hits Iran harder with more “strategic” strikes, nothing about that will change the reality on the ground. It won’t bring regime collapse, it won’t help Israel, and it won’t improve the West’s long-term position.
Maybe they’ll cause some short-term economic damage, but politically and socially, it’ll only strengthen the regime. People will rally around the flag, and the state will get more justification to tighten control, as always in these situations.
Honestly, I give it a few more years, max, before the U.S. gives up on Iran altogether, or it simply physically can't continue pestering them, due to their own internal deterioration, despite what Israel says, just like they did in Afghanistan.
If the Iranian regime can survive that long, and it’s looking like they’re doing a solid job, they’ll come out of it more united, more stable, and more powerful than before.
They’ll be in a perfect position for the post-U.S. collapse world, ready to play a much bigger role in global restructuring, not just politically, but economically then too.
Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel tries to assassinate Khamenei pretty soon. They’ve clearly realized that their dream of rapidly stirring up unrest in Iran spontaneously is a total fantasy. Instead, the opposite happened; the leadership is more consolidated than ever. They have to do something.
The thing is, the previous assassinations of Iranian military leaders worked mostly because no one expected them. They were caught off guard, killed with their families, neighbors, civilians, the whole thing. But now? They know what’s coming. Everyone in that leadership structure has to assume they’re targets.
Still, if figures like Khamenei are so detached from reality that they still think Israel won’t go after them out of some respect for political norms or sacred lines, then frankly, they’re being naive. And if they get assassinated because of that kind of thinking, they’ll have no one else to blame.
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Speculation what might have gone down, with no B-2's involved, just 3 SSN's launching a face saving salvo of TLAMs.