In a recent thread there was a disucssion regarding 2020 and what the relative surface combatatnt strength (particularly with DDGs becase that was what the intial disccsuin was about) would be for the JMSDF and PLAN. In response to some statements made that by 2020 the PLAN would completely outclass the JMSDF and be able to defeat them out of hand, I responded that I did not believe that would not be the case at all.
So, I thought I would document where I feel the two respective navies would be in that time frame with respect to major surface combatants with this thread. This is not meant to be a nationalistic, "our navy is going to beat your navy," disccussion. Any such posts will be referred to the mods for deletion. Rather, a discussion about the types and numbers of vessels each nation may field in that time frame and what their relative strengths and weaknesses may be in terms of showing, in my estimation why a major conflict between the two sides, particularly over the currently disputed islands is so unlikely.
In terms of looking forward to 2020, then, I take what the JMSDF will have terms of DDGs (because that was what the discussion had been about), and what they plan in terms of continued production (either of the Akizaki class or a new design).
The JMSDF DDGs in 2020:
Murisami x 9 x 32 VLS x 6,200 tons
Takanami x 5 x 32 VLS x 6,400 tons
Akizuki x 8 x 32 VLS x 6,800 tons
Kongo x 4 x 96 VLS x 9,600 tons
Atago x 2 x 96 VLS x 10,000 tons
Hyuga x 2 x 16 x 20,000 tons
22DDH x 2 x 42 x 27,000 tons
30 vessels with 1,396 VLS Cells and 294,200 tons
The PLAN DDGs in 2020:
Sovs x 4 x 0 VLS x 8,000 tons
Type 051C x 2 x 48 VLS x 7,200 tons
Type 052B x 2 x 0 VLS x 6,500 tons
Type 052C x 6 x 48 VLS
Type 052D x 10 x 640 VLS 7,500 tons
24 vessels with 1,024 VLS Cells and 176,400 tons
That leads to the following DDG comparison:
JMSDF/PLAN DDG Forces in 2020:
JMSDF: 32 DDGS with 1,396 VLS Cells and 294,200 tons
PLAN: 24 DDGs with 1,024 VLS Cells and 176,400 tons
Now, there have (understandably) been calls for including the "FFG" platforms in this equation. When we do that, the balance begins to shift to the PLAN overall by 2020 purely in terms of these numbers...but not taking into account the quality of the sensors, the types of wapons the VLS will operate, and the experience of the overall naval forces...which right now, and through 2020 IMHO will all favor the JMSDF. But the pure numbers of the FFG comparison add the following:
The JMSDF FFGs in 2020:
Asagari x 6 x (16 x.5) VLS x 3,500 tons
Hatasukie x 8 x (16 x .5) x 3,,000 tons
Abukuma x 6 x (16 x .5) x, 2,500 tons
20 vessels with 160 VLS and 60,000 tons
The PLAN FFGs in 2020:
Type 054 x 2 x 0 VLS x 4,000 tons
Type 054/A/B x 20 x 32 VLS x 4,500 tons
22 vessels with 640 VLS and 98,000 tons
This leads to the following FFG comparison:
JMSDF/PLAN FFG Forces in 2020:
JMSDF: 20 FFGs with 160 VLS and 60,000
PLAN: 22 FFGs with 640 VLS and 98,000 tons
All said, in response to any comments indicate that by 2020 the PLAN will completely out class the JMSDF and be able to defeat them out of hand, these figures show such a conclusion is simply not so.
The JMSDF, by 2020 will have 52 modern surface combatants with well over 1,550 VLS tubes and a total of well over 300,000 tons. The PLAN will have 46 modern surface combatants with over 1,600 VLS tubes and over 275,000 tons. If those two forces clashed, it would make for a very closely matched naval combat (one which I am sure we all pray never happens), where neither side completely outclasses the other or where on side would be dispatched out of hand.
... and this is before we include the likely response the US Navy would have in such a conflict, which would be very telling becqause of the current mutal defense treaties Japan and the United States share.
In addition, the match up in the air is also similarly closely matched (I will not go into details here, perhaps someone can do a seperate thread on those aircraft and their numbers) with the JSDF F-15s, F-16s and indegenous Japanese aircraft vs. the PLAAFs J-10s, J-11Bs, SU-27s, SU-30s and J-15 aircraft...and particularly when factoring in what US Air Force and Navy would bring to the table.
For all of these reasons I feel that any conflict over dispute the islands involving these two nations is very remote, short of some terrible over-reach or miscalculation by one side or the other.
