2009 Update to Jeff Head's PLAN pages

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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In 2008 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continued to concentrate on integrating its new surface combatants into its various fleets, while continuing to introduce new combatants simultaneously...as it did in 2007 In particularly, the PLAN has added the new nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines, punctuating the PLAN's continued advance and improvement of its nuclear submarine capability, while continuing to build and add more new diesel electric submarines. In addition, the PLAN has restarted its new guided-missile frigate production and is continuing serial production of the very cvapable Type 054A, frigates. The new Type 071 Landing Platform Dock has completed significant trials and integration and had its pennant number added. More of these modern amphibious assault vessels are expected.

In late 2008, the People's Republic of China officially statetd its intention to build two large, fixed-wing, aircraft carriers during the twenty teens. They will probably be built at the very large and new, Changxing shipyards near Shanghai. This is fueling speculation that the Varyag, continuing to be refitted in the PLAN's Dalian shipyards, will be launched as a trsinging aircraft in the near future.

At the very end of the year, in late December 2008, all of the PLAN planning, logistics, development, and strategy were put to use for when a PLAN task force consisting of two of the People Republic's newest and most capable guided missile destroyers and one of the newer replenishment vessels, was deployed into the Indian Ocean to combat Somali pirates that had confronted and attacked a number of Chinese (and many other nations') commercial shipping in the area. It is the first combat deployment of Chinese Navy vessels outside of its own coastal waters in the China Seas in modern times and will give the PLAN more experience in such foregin, blue water deployments. The current task force is schedule to be rotated with another task force consisting of the same class vessels every three months.

Finally, although no new very large surface combatants were started in 2008, the PLAN nevertheless continues its unprecedented modernization and buildup, integrating into its ongoing operations its new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them.

THIS IS AN EXCERPT. TO READ MORE AND SEE MANY MORE PICTURES...
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tphuang

tphuang

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Jeff Head said:

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In 2008 the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continued to concentrate on integrating its new surface combatants into its various fleets, while continuing to introduce new combatants simultaneously...as it did in 2007 In particularly, the PLAN has added the new nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines, punctuating the PLAN's continued advance and improvement of its nuclear submarine capability, while continuing to build and add more new diesel electric submarines. In addition, the PLAN has restarted its new guided-missile frigate production and is continuing serial production of the very cvapable Type 054A, frigates. The new Type 071 Landing Platform Dock has completed significant trials and integration and had its pennant number added. More of these modern amphibious assault vessels are expected.

In late 2008, the People's Republic of China officially statetd its intention to build two large, fixed-wing, aircraft carriers during the twenty teens. They will probably be built at the very large and new, Changxing shipyards near Shanghai. This is fueling speculation that the Varyag, continuing to be refitted in the PLAN's Dalian shipyards, will be launched as a trsinging aircraft in the near future.

At the very end of the year, in late December 2008, all of the PLAN planning, logistics, development, and strategy were put to use for when a PLAN task force consisting of two of the People Republic's newest and most capable guided missile destroyers and one of the newer replenishment vessels, was deployed into the Indian Ocean to combat Somali pirates that had confronted and attacked a number of Chinese (and many other nations') commercial shipping in the area. It is the first combat deployment of Chinese Navy vessels outside of its own coastal waters in the China Seas in modern times and will give the PLAN more experience in such foregin, blue water deployments. The current task force is schedule to be rotated with another task force consisting of the same class vessels every three months.

Finally, although no new very large surface combatants were started in 2008, the PLAN nevertheless continues its unprecedented modernization and buildup, integrating into its ongoing operations its new guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, fast attack craft, very modern and quiet diesel/electric attack submarines, nuclear attack submarines, nuclear ballistic missile submarines, logisitic support craft, amphibious assault craft, and the infrastructure and aircraft to support them.

THIS IS AN EXCERPT. TO READ MORE AND SEE MANY MORE PICTURES...
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good work as usual Jeff, btw, I've also had a 2008 review on my blog.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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tphuang said:
good work as usual Jeff, btw, I've also had a 2008 review on my blog.
Click to expand...
Thanks tphuang. Despite the fact that there was no "huge" news as regards launching the Varyag, or starting construction on something really new, like a LHA, another LPD, or even a newer class of DDG...a LOT is happening and still very quickly with the PLAN.

It's actually pretty amazing. The deployment to the Indian Ocean and having it rotate every three months is going to bring invaluable operational experience to the PLAN.

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Please, give me a link to your blog so I can read what you have written.
 
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tphuang

tphuang

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Jeff Head said:
Thanks tphuang. Despite the fact that there was no "huge" news as regards launching the Varyag, or starting construction on something really new, like a LHA, another LPD, or even a newer class of DDG...a LOT is happening and still very quickly with the PLAN.

It's actually pretty amazing. The deployment to the Indian Ocean and having it rotate every three months is going to bring invaluable operational experience to the PLAN.

Please, give me a link to your blog so I can read what you have written.
Click to expand...

I think so too, I thought the focus is more on getting more real action/training rather than just more units. My blog is here
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I've had it for a while, I try to put in some predictions for next year, although my predictions last year has not turned out so prophetic.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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tphuang said:
I think so too, I thought the focus is more on getting more real action/training rather than just more units. My blog is here
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I've had it for a while, I try to put in some predictions for next year, although my predictions last year has not turned out so prophetic.
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Excellent blog tphuang. It will be interesting to see the 052D and what its configuartion and weapons fit is...but initially just seeing it take shape will be enough.

Also, if in this year or next the construction starts on the new carriers, it will not take long to notice them on the ways.

I expect that some day the Varyag will be completed. It only makes sense to me since it is a completed hull that the PLAN has sunk a lot of money into, for it to be completed to train for the new carriers. But that may well be another 2-3 years away before it is actually completed as such. We shall see.

I like the newere photos of the 093s and 094s and tried to include some in my update. I am sure that there are now more than two of each of those.

I can't overemphasize the impact to the strategic balance in the WestPac when more and more of these continue to be seen and deployed:

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M

Mu Shu Tortilla

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Completing the ship is the inexpensive part. Operating it, paying such a large crew, providing fuel, armaments and provisions for such a large unit with all those aircraft flying every day requires a huge commitment of resources. Then there is the expensive training establishment required. It gets expensive very quickly.
A nation has to weigh this great cost against the potential benefits. Unless you have the resources to keep a carrier at sea continuously, implying at least two hulls and more likely three, it may not be worthwhile to pursue big fixed wing carrier aviation. There simply will be too much time when, due to shipyard availabilites and post deployment stand downs, a carrier will not be available for combat. My guess is that China will sneak up on carrier aviation through some less capable ships like LHA's or maybe even VSTOL carriers. I honestly do not think the idea of China buying a derivative of the Yak Freestyle, or developing something off of that airframe, is so far fetched. VSTOL's get a nation into the carrier business faster and for less money than going from nothing to a Nimitz class. Those who think this is easy ought to spend some time on the deck of such a carrier. It is very complex business.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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Mu Shu Tortilla said:
Completing the ship is the inexpensive part. Operating it, paying such a large crew, providing fuel, armaments and provisions for such a large unit with all those aircraft flying every day requires a huge commitment of resources. Then there is the expensive training establishment required. It gets expensive very quickly.
A nation has to weigh this great cost against the potential benefits. Unless you have the resources to keep a carrier at sea continuously, implying at least two hulls and more likely three, it may not be worthwhile to pursue big fixed wing carrier aviation. There simply will be too much time when, due to shipyard availabilites and post deployment stand downs, a carrier will not be available for combat. My guess is that China will sneak up on carrier aviation through some less capable ships like LHA's or maybe even VSTOL carriers. I honestly do not think the idea of China buying a derivative of the Yak Freestyle, or developing something off of that airframe, is so far fetched. VSTOL's get a nation into the carrier business faster and for less money than going from nothing to a Nimitz class. Those who think this is easy ought to spend some time on the deck of such a carrier. It is very complex business.
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Of course it is an expensive business requiring much, much more expenditure over the life of the vessel than in the construction.

But the PLAN has been very carefully examining methodologies, deconstructing older vessels, preparing, planning, and working up to a program over a number of years.

I beleive they are going to do it and end up (initially) with three hulls. The Varyag and the two new carriers they have spoken of. I believe they will have their own derivitive of the SU-33 embarked on these carriers initially, with something more fully their own later. I also believe that they will start with the KA-31 AEW atr first, then later, something of their own, perhaps even fixed wing.

We shall see...but they have made steady, very deliberate progress in this direction and they have the economy now, and the technology (I believe) to sustain it.

Of course, once they have them in hand, it will be years before they develop complete and efficient blue-water operational strategies for their use...but I believe they know this and are ready to embark on that course.

BTW, did you see these new amphibios landing craft the PLAN is now building in some numbers?

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They look a lot like the
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...only quite a bit bigger.

Nice thing about the LCU 1600 is that it can fit nicely in the well deck of either a Tarawa or Wasp class, while these are far too large to fit inside the new Type 071 LPD.
 
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bd popeye

bd popeye

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It's actually pretty amazing. The deployment to the Indian Ocean and having it rotate every three months is going to bring invaluable operational experience to the PLAN.
Click to expand...

This deployment is a watershed mark in the history of the PLAN. I'm really interested in how they rotate their forces in the Gulf of Aden. Shall they send in other ships to relieve the ships now on station? Or shall the rotate the crews leaving those ships there and just relieve the crews? Or simply give up the mission declaring success.

Now about your PLAN page. Your page is very well done. It is one of the top three I've seen on the PLAN. Very excellent and correct information. I think however you are being more than kind to the progress on the Varyag. I think the ship has been at a standstill for at least two years. I see little or no progress.

All in all Jeff an excellent page!
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

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Registered Member
bd popeye said:
This deployment is a watershed mark in the history of the PLAN. I'm really interested in how they rotate their forces in the Gulf of Aden. Shall they send in other ships to relieve the ships now on station? Or shall the rotate the crews leaving those ships there and just relieve the crews? Or simply give up the mission declaring success.

Now about your PLAN page. Your page is very well done. It is one of the top three I've seen on the PLAN. Very excellent and correct information. I think however you are being more than kind to the progress on the Varyag. I think the ship has been at a standstill for at least two years. I see little or no progress.

All in all Jeff an excellent page!
Click to expand...
If I've read reports correct, the PRC has pretty much announced that they are going to rotate vessels to the IO. meaning the 168 and 171 when the time comes, and their crews. Probably sail out there and relieve them on staion is my guess...in 3 months.

I believe they will draw at the mission as long as they possibly can because of the experience they are gaining, the press and notoriety (particularly back home), and the opportunity to show the flag in a big way.

As to the Varyag...I believe they have been doing things interior to the vessel and believe that with the announcement of the new carriers the likelihood for the Varyag being launched went up big time.

but only time will tell. One thing is for sure, they have spent a lot of money on her and they have already gained a lot of experience working with her.

Thanks for the comments about the page. I've had it up there for almost 6 years now and there's a ton of information on there with each of the updates, the comparisons to the US vessels, and the Varyag page. I decided with the 2009 update to link the higher res pictures on the update page too.
 
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