plawolf
Lieutenant General
re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer
Well I really do not see how you could class anything with less than 40-50km range as 'dead in the water' since that will pretty much only leave the ESSM as the only quad packable missile in service or under development that isn't useless by your definition. 50km is the maximum range of the ESSM, so even that gold standard missile barely meets your criteria. Setting the bar a little high wouldn't you say?
You also seem to be ignoring the PLAN's existing assets and also been needlessly inflexible in imposing USN doctrine as the only viable way to operate a carrier battle group, and even then you are only covering a very limited set of circumstances.
Firstly, let's have a look at the PLAN's existing inventory. They already have 8 052Cs built, plus the two 051Cs. These ships can only carry LR SAMs, and as such, the PLAN pretty much already have long range air defense covered. As such, they will not need to fill every cell on the 052D with HQ9s since there will already been plenty of 052Cs to fill that role.
Secondly, the HQ10 is a point defense missile as you have described and has almost no fleet defense utility, but a 20-25km ranged SAM is considered an area defense weapon and can quite easily provide fleet defense if positioned appropriately to other ships in a fleet. As such, it is perfectly reasonable to have FL3000 and a quad packed MR SAM as well.
Thirdly, there is another key reason to have quad packed MR SAMs that you have not covered, and that is to cover yourself against saturation attack. Having a long reach is all fine and good, but if the enemy lob far more AShMs at you than you have SAMs, well you are pretty screwed irrespective of how far away you shoot down most of those AShMs.
Lastly, it is quite often that a carrier battle group would adopt a close formation, especially if it is trying to remain undetected. For all the firepower a carrier battle group can muster, it is it's mobility and difficulty in detecting it that are some of it's best defenses.
The USN typically operate with a spread formation when entering hostile waters because the kind of hostiles they have been facing would have no chance of threatening a carrier battle group through anything other than sheer blind luck, and a spread formation minimizes the chances of a lucky fighter stumbling across the battle group and achieving a surprise attack.
The carriers and their escorts can operate with radars on all the time because it doesn't make a blind bit of difference if the enemy can detect them via those emissions, since they simply lack the means to mount any sort of credible attack against a USN CSG.
However, back in the day, when the USN played cat and mouse with the Soviets, it is quite common for CSGs to adapt a close formation and enforce strict emissions controls and minimize the chances of detection.
Since the PLAN lacks the numbers and capabilities of the USN, chances are, if they are fighting someone with the ability to strike back, they will try to adopt a close formation for it's escorts to minimize the chances of detection and rely on airborne assets for long range sensor data. When the entire fleet is pulled to within a few NM of each other, a 20-25km range missile becomes a fleet defense missile.
Now that's the general principles covered, let's talk specifics. I envisage a PLAN CSG centered around the Liaoning and ready for deployment in 3-5 years to consist of between 2-4 054As, 2-3 052Cs, 1-2 052Ds and 1-2 093 SSNs with 1-2 replenish ships and maybe 1-2 071 LPDs if they want options for ground action.
If you forget about the subs, support ships and LPDs for the moment and just focus on the carrier and her escorts. Before the 052D, I can see an other ring/triangle of 052Cs providing long range missile coverage, with an inner ring of 054As close enough to lend them support with their HQ16s if the enemy target the 052Cs, but also close enough to the carrier that they can engage any thing that gets past the 052Cs with HQ16s before they can threaten the carrier.
Now that the PLAN has the 052D and a possible quad packed MR SAM, the can push the other layers of 052Cs and 054As further out because the 052Ds can now provide the medium range protection for the carrier, and thus freeing the 054As to push further out from the carrier, and that in turn allows the 052Cs to venture further out without being left isolated and vulnerable.
That is if they decided to put only one 052D with the CSG, or if they put both 052Ds close to the carrier at the center of the fleet. Alternatively, they would have only one 052D near the carrier, with the other taking point leading the fleet. The escort closest to the enemy is usually the one at the most risk, so having 3 layers of missiles and a gun based CIWS would be a lot better than only having long range missiles yourself and relying on other ships to provide a medium range missile screen while you only have gun based CIWS to hold the fort if anything got past all that.
Well I really do not see how you could class anything with less than 40-50km range as 'dead in the water' since that will pretty much only leave the ESSM as the only quad packable missile in service or under development that isn't useless by your definition. 50km is the maximum range of the ESSM, so even that gold standard missile barely meets your criteria. Setting the bar a little high wouldn't you say?
You also seem to be ignoring the PLAN's existing assets and also been needlessly inflexible in imposing USN doctrine as the only viable way to operate a carrier battle group, and even then you are only covering a very limited set of circumstances.
Firstly, let's have a look at the PLAN's existing inventory. They already have 8 052Cs built, plus the two 051Cs. These ships can only carry LR SAMs, and as such, the PLAN pretty much already have long range air defense covered. As such, they will not need to fill every cell on the 052D with HQ9s since there will already been plenty of 052Cs to fill that role.
Secondly, the HQ10 is a point defense missile as you have described and has almost no fleet defense utility, but a 20-25km ranged SAM is considered an area defense weapon and can quite easily provide fleet defense if positioned appropriately to other ships in a fleet. As such, it is perfectly reasonable to have FL3000 and a quad packed MR SAM as well.
Thirdly, there is another key reason to have quad packed MR SAMs that you have not covered, and that is to cover yourself against saturation attack. Having a long reach is all fine and good, but if the enemy lob far more AShMs at you than you have SAMs, well you are pretty screwed irrespective of how far away you shoot down most of those AShMs.
Lastly, it is quite often that a carrier battle group would adopt a close formation, especially if it is trying to remain undetected. For all the firepower a carrier battle group can muster, it is it's mobility and difficulty in detecting it that are some of it's best defenses.
The USN typically operate with a spread formation when entering hostile waters because the kind of hostiles they have been facing would have no chance of threatening a carrier battle group through anything other than sheer blind luck, and a spread formation minimizes the chances of a lucky fighter stumbling across the battle group and achieving a surprise attack.
The carriers and their escorts can operate with radars on all the time because it doesn't make a blind bit of difference if the enemy can detect them via those emissions, since they simply lack the means to mount any sort of credible attack against a USN CSG.
However, back in the day, when the USN played cat and mouse with the Soviets, it is quite common for CSGs to adapt a close formation and enforce strict emissions controls and minimize the chances of detection.
Since the PLAN lacks the numbers and capabilities of the USN, chances are, if they are fighting someone with the ability to strike back, they will try to adopt a close formation for it's escorts to minimize the chances of detection and rely on airborne assets for long range sensor data. When the entire fleet is pulled to within a few NM of each other, a 20-25km range missile becomes a fleet defense missile.
Now that's the general principles covered, let's talk specifics. I envisage a PLAN CSG centered around the Liaoning and ready for deployment in 3-5 years to consist of between 2-4 054As, 2-3 052Cs, 1-2 052Ds and 1-2 093 SSNs with 1-2 replenish ships and maybe 1-2 071 LPDs if they want options for ground action.
If you forget about the subs, support ships and LPDs for the moment and just focus on the carrier and her escorts. Before the 052D, I can see an other ring/triangle of 052Cs providing long range missile coverage, with an inner ring of 054As close enough to lend them support with their HQ16s if the enemy target the 052Cs, but also close enough to the carrier that they can engage any thing that gets past the 052Cs with HQ16s before they can threaten the carrier.
Now that the PLAN has the 052D and a possible quad packed MR SAM, the can push the other layers of 052Cs and 054As further out because the 052Ds can now provide the medium range protection for the carrier, and thus freeing the 054As to push further out from the carrier, and that in turn allows the 052Cs to venture further out without being left isolated and vulnerable.
That is if they decided to put only one 052D with the CSG, or if they put both 052Ds close to the carrier at the center of the fleet. Alternatively, they would have only one 052D near the carrier, with the other taking point leading the fleet. The escort closest to the enemy is usually the one at the most risk, so having 3 layers of missiles and a gun based CIWS would be a lot better than only having long range missiles yourself and relying on other ships to provide a medium range missile screen while you only have gun based CIWS to hold the fort if anything got past all that.
