Sorry, i'm not that upbeat as to the timescale. Dalian and 004 are late, i don't know why Dalian didn't immediately followed with another carrier after Shandong's launch in 2017.
Unless you wanted Dalian to immediately follow up with another STOBAR carrier after launching CV-17 (which imo would be a waste of personnel and shipbuilding resources), they had basically no option but to wait until CV-18 was relatively far along to verify that vital CATOBAR technologies were actually mature.
The americans were launching Fords 6 years apart, so even assuming delays caused by covid and an assumed learning curve being a CVN and all, 004 should have been launched by now, 8 years apart from Shandong.
Remember that CV-17 Shandong was launched in 2017, when they had only been operating Liaoning for half a decade and Shandong was the first ever carrier the entire country had built.
Putting it another way, assuming one wanted CATOBAR CVN, then between the launch of CV-17 and signing off on construction of a CATOBAR CVN, they would need to have first verified:
- the strategic environment is suitable for continued procurement of carriers (geostrategic changes, technological changes meant that there was every possibility that further carrier procurement might not be appropriate for the PLA)
- they had the requisite funding for all of the steps needed to reach a CVN (again, far from guaranteed)
- they were able to verify that CV-17 itself was able to work and function and Dalian's work was up to par
- they had to verify that key CATOBAR subsystems (like EM catapult), and the key CATOBAR airwing (J-35, J-15T, KJ-600) were actually mature and ready... remember at the time that CV-17 was launched, none of those three aircraft had even had their first prototype fly, let alone enter service
- they had to develop and verify the maturity and readiness of the nuclear propulsion drive train
- and then after all of that is done, they need to actually design and develop the thing and ensure that the shipyard is appropriately tooled up to build it, and finally verify that buying a CATOBAR CVN still makes sense for them by the time all the prior steps were done
So, based on the above, how on earth could Dalian have "immediately followed up" the launch of CV-17 in 2017, with another carrier, especially if it's a proper CATOBAR CVN?
The only way Dalian could have immediately followed up CV-17 with another carrier is if they built another STOBAR carrier, and such a procurement decision would have been nonsensical.
If you want to talk about the US launch cadence of Fords class carriers, perhaps consider reminding yourself of the size and longevity of the USN's CVN fleet size and airwing at that stage, and US shipbuilding and associated industry experience in building CVNs overall, whereas the PRC was starting from scratch in every domain -- heck they were basically starting from scratch in building STOBAR CVs, let alone CVNs.
You really must be rather new to PLA watching, because any of us that observed and witnessed the PLA's carrier journey from Varyag's rebuild to Liaoning, then the emergence and launch of CV-17 Shandong, and then the gradual rumours and pictures of CV-18 Fujian, can tell you just how laughable your idea is. The technological and industry barriers they had to get through between then and now (20 years virtually on the dot) is immense, not to mention the organizational requirements of actually getting all of the ducks in a row.
If anything the speed that they've progressed from operating their first ever carrier, building their first ever carrier, building their first ever CATOBAR, and now possibly building their first potential CVN, has been downright fast considering they've had to go it all alone.
Of course, rumours of accelerated 004 construction as of now are great, but still i can't see how the goal of 6 CVs ready by 2035 can be met, at most 5, this assuming Jiangnan will be building another carrier by then.
Why do you have that number in mind in the first place?
