joshuatree
Captain
A nice map from that article that shows locations of occupied features.
South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)
- Thread starter PanAsian
- Start date
A nice map from that article that shows locations of occupied features.
Thanks a lot .... averall included in this report:
Deino
Last edited:
JayBird
Junior Member
Under the map on the linked article give credit to the Pentagon’s Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy. So.. the map should be originated from the U.S. Department of Defense or Pentagon.
joshuatree
Captain
Blackstone
Brigadier
The chickenhawks in Washington think somehow China could be put back into the genie bottle, and I think they will soon see the chickens coming home to roost in the form of Vietnamese Realpolitik. I say that because I believe China will continue its relentless SCS Monroe Doctrine efforts, and Vietnam would test US resolve by manufacturing a mini-crisis the next time Beijing moves an oil rig into contested EEZ. I see tense moments with gratuitous shouting and saber ratting from Hanoi, Beijing, and Washington/allies. The world would hold its collective breath, but there would be no conflict between the two great powers. It ends with China even more firmly in control of the SCS, and US friends and allies wondering if they should cut the best deal they can with Beijing, because they doubt they could count on Uncle Sugar to contain China in the long-run.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Yes, because the last time the Vietnamese opened fire on Chinese naval forces worked out so well for them.
Just your run of the mill nationalist chest thumping jingoism.
Do they think the PLAN got all those shinny new warships for show? China's entire SCS strategy has been hamstrung by western misreporting of the situation, where no bad thing anyone else does gets reported while every Chinese response is highlighted and repeated ceaselessly to create the false impression that its only China who is doing anything in the SCS.
Contrary to mainstream western reporting, China has actually showed considerable restraint in dealing with land grabs and other numerous provocations by the likes of Vietnam and the Philipines.
If the Vietnamese really are stupid enough to actually open fire on Chinese ships in disputed waters, it will actually free up a lot of options Beijing would normally not consider, since even the western media cannot spin the Vietnamnese opening fire on unarmed (since I seriously doubt the Vietnamese coast guard is stupid or suicidal enough to start a firefight with a Chinese warship, if they are going to fire, they will almos certainly fire on unarmed monitoring ships of civilian fishing boats) Chinese ships as an example of Chinese aggression.
joshuatree
Captain
Yes, because the last time the Vietnamese opened fire on Chinese naval forces worked out so well for them.
Just your run of the mill nationalist chest thumping jingoism.
Do they think the PLAN got all those shinny new warships for show? China's entire SCS strategy has been hamstrung by western misreporting of the situation, where no bad thing anyone else does gets reported while every Chinese response is highlighted and repeated ceaselessly to create the false impression that its only China who is doing anything in the SCS.
Contrary to mainstream western reporting, China has actually showed considerable restraint in dealing with land grabs and other numerous provocations by the likes of Vietnam and the Philipines.
If the Vietnamese really are stupid enough to actually open fire on Chinese ships in disputed waters, it will actually free up a lot of options Beijing would normally not consider, since even the western media cannot spin the Vietnamnese opening fire on unarmed (since I seriously doubt the Vietnamese coast guard is stupid or suicidal enough to start a firefight with a Chinese warship, if they are going to fire, they will almos certainly fire on unarmed monitoring ships of civilian fishing boats) Chinese ships as an example of Chinese aggression.
My gut feeling would be if the Vietnam CG really carries out this newly authorized power, it would most likely be directed on Chinese civilian ships - fishing vessels and scientific vessels (ie oil exploration).
However, what is included as onboard weapons? During the last confrontation with the oil rig, did Vietnam CG ever use water cannons? If not, this may simply mean they will now start using water cannons themselves as the first level of onboard weapons. If they use water cannons, they may gain a tool against the Chinese but it will dampen any of their criticisms about the Chinese using water cannons.
If they are using lethal weapons such as machine guns, then I see them using it in situations favorable to them - ie. self defense. I hope in the age of affordable video cameras, Chinese civilian ships should get more savvy in protecting themselves from any media spin.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Hard to make good home videos while ducking incoming machine gun fire.
Even if you do get good footage, that is only useful if you can get it to the outside world.
If the Vietnamese are firing on a Chinese fishing boat or civilian monitoring ship, they will mean to board it, and once they do, they will surely destroy any incriminating evidence the Chinese crew gathers.
Then its a "he said she said" situation, and you know who the west will back without having to hear a single fact about any such case.
This only underscores how far sighted the Chinese were in building those islands.
With those forward bases, Chinese coast guard and naval forces will be able to respond to any such attacks far quicker, potentially deterring the Vietnamese from trying to pull such stunts in the first place if they know they will not be able to cover things up and get away with it.
But I think the Vietnamese would be smart enough to figure all this out, so either this is just empty rhetoric designed for internal consumption, or they mean to try something before the new Chinese island bases are fully operational, when Chinese patrols still have to come all the way from Hainan.
Sort of a last act of spite before they loose the capabilities to do so altogether.
I hope it is the former, but if it is the later, there will be trouble in the SCS, and it will not end well for Vietnam. Their forces are hopelessly outmatched in every conceivable way, any shooting war will only end one way.
Not even the Philippines could bank on American assistance if they started a shooting war with China by opening fire on unarmed Chinese civilian ships first, if Vietnam is hoping America will send its sons and daughters to fight and die to defend them from the consequences of their own stupidity and hubris, they will be in for a rude awakening.
Even if you do get good footage, that is only useful if you can get it to the outside world.
If the Vietnamese are firing on a Chinese fishing boat or civilian monitoring ship, they will mean to board it, and once they do, they will surely destroy any incriminating evidence the Chinese crew gathers.
Then its a "he said she said" situation, and you know who the west will back without having to hear a single fact about any such case.
This only underscores how far sighted the Chinese were in building those islands.
With those forward bases, Chinese coast guard and naval forces will be able to respond to any such attacks far quicker, potentially deterring the Vietnamese from trying to pull such stunts in the first place if they know they will not be able to cover things up and get away with it.
But I think the Vietnamese would be smart enough to figure all this out, so either this is just empty rhetoric designed for internal consumption, or they mean to try something before the new Chinese island bases are fully operational, when Chinese patrols still have to come all the way from Hainan.
Sort of a last act of spite before they loose the capabilities to do so altogether.
I hope it is the former, but if it is the later, there will be trouble in the SCS, and it will not end well for Vietnam. Their forces are hopelessly outmatched in every conceivable way, any shooting war will only end one way.
Not even the Philippines could bank on American assistance if they started a shooting war with China by opening fire on unarmed Chinese civilian ships first, if Vietnam is hoping America will send its sons and daughters to fight and die to defend them from the consequences of their own stupidity and hubris, they will be in for a rude awakening.