Rand Report

A recently leaked Rand study reportedly suggests that the USAF - even with its technological edge - would be unable to cope with Chinese numerical dominance in a future conflict over the Taiwan straight:


The Rand analysis was reportedly built around a 2020 match-up, in which a handful of US F-22 Raptors based out of Guam attempted to counter a Chinese assault force comprising 72 Su-27 (J-11) Flankers. Although the analysts assumed that the Su-27 would be unable to shoot down the elusive F-22, the shear numbers behind the Chinese force were projected to break-through the barrier presented by the F-22s, and successfully shoot-down the air refueling tankers on which the F-22s depend. Without their tankers, the F-22s would have no alternative than to ditch in the ocean, having insufficient fuel to return to their home base.

The Rand analysis reportedly calls into question the USAF's reliance on stealth technology and BVR kills, at the expense of numerical odds in any potential future match-up:


Reading through both of these reports, I see the Rand assessment as having two effects:

• Being seized upon by those already campaigning for additional F-22s; and
  
  
• Leading the US to consider permanently basing a squadron of F-22s out of Kadena, where they would be far closer to the Taiwan Straits.

By 2020, those F22 would proberbly have to face J12 instead of Su27, even Su27 would have expected to been upgraded with AESA radar alrdy, 72 upgraded Su27 can't down any F22? Especially when Taiwan strait is far closer to the Chinese mainland and all the ground and air base early warning Radar systems to PLAAF's disposle?

And the F22 would be upgraded as well, so it's not a question of future J12 vs current F22.

In the event of Taiwan strait, we are always looking at US vs China. However are we also conveniently forgetting or even ignoring the facts that Taiwan also had a very powerful air force?

In the report, it is F22 vs Su27, but we must take into consideration that the F22 will be supported by Taiwanese air force, defence missiles, etc.

Will these be not enough to deter the Su27? I mean... 72 Su27 isn't really that much. And I don't believe US only have the F22... what happen to the F15, F16? and even the F18? are they all retired by then and with no new replacement?

And also keep in mind that the F-22's have been included in many military excercises, such as Red Flag. Most of which are all as realistic as possible without actually shooting eachother down. F-22's have been flying in excercises such as Red Flag for the past couple of years, in which teams of 2 F-22's would go up against as many as 16-18 F-15's and take them down without the F-15 pilots even knowing they were there. Sure the excercises were only simulated but as close to actual combat as possible, and it was only until recently that the first and only F-22 has ever been "shot down." And it was within visual range, sure it is all simulated but those stats don't lie, and since the Raptor is almost invisible to any kind of radar, you can't hit what you can't see right?

Nowadays most all dogfights are won before the pilots ever come close to seeing eachother, and probably even more so in the future. And the U.S. stealth technology is so far ahead of it's time that even overwhelming numerical superiority wouldn't be able to decide the outcome. That's not saying that either side would win, but since these planes have never encountered eachother in combat, and the Su-27 and all of it's derivatives are all still 4th generation fighters that are technically no better than any other conventional aircraft in it's class, such as the F-15 and F-16/18, it would take more than numbers alone to be able to decide the outcome of any potential future conflict.

And also don't forget that by that time the F-35 would be in service aswell. So I don't think that China would have too much of a numerical superiority against the U.S. family of fighters as a whole, from the F-15 all the way up to the F-35. And that's not even mentioning Taiwan's military capability. So who's to say that there would be so much of a numerical advantage/disadvantage?

that's right, but the report only state usa vs china with only the best superiority fighters of both countries they have....
it clearly is lobbying for more raptors like the ts said.

This report is not especially helpful given that it is highly unlikely the US would be able to rely on only a handful of F-22s. Where is Kaneda in this equation?

Think about this: In this scenario of 72 Su-27s against an unspecified but small number of F-22s, we must consider the fact that the two groups are closing with each other very very quickly, and most likely the F-22s won't have time to engage all or even the majority of enemy aircraft from BVR. I can envision a situation where the two flights close with each other, the F-22s fire a salvo of missiles from BVR which destroy a lot of Su-27s but not enough, and then they are WVR, and involved in a swirling dogfight were the Su-27s still have a big numerical advantage. The F-22s would come out on top but would be occupied and would probably take some loses. The Su-27s would possibly be trying for gun kills. Some of the Su 27s could pass right on through the furball and take out the air refueling/AWACS planes that the F-22s are depending on.

Also, if the numerical advantage on the the Chinese side is really large enough, then the number of missiles the F-22s are carrying becomes an issue, especially if the Chinese are really trying to use a lot of EW techniques.

I also agree with Rhino123, we can't ignore the ROCAF in any real Taiwan Straits scenario. However I think the point of this report was to examine the specific situation they addressed. It basically confirms that the F-22 is not a silver bullet.

The Su-27s would possibly be trying for gun kills.

Click to expand...

They could also utilize infrared guided missiles (heat seekers); the use of such missiles would be a equalizer once the engagement enters WVR range. If future Flankers are equipped with 3D TVC and pilot training is around equal, then in WVR range Chinese Su-27s should be able to engage the Raptors on an equal footing.

I have two questions:
1) Will F-22s be invisible at any range? Or will they show up on radar at very close ranges?
2) If the Su-27s are divided into multiple flights approaching from different vectors, will they be able to use triangulation to track the F-22s?

You might want to look at this:


note however, many people dismiss Dr. Kopp. Short answer is no stealth is perfect, it just shaves distance off detection range. At close enough range a radar will get a reflection. However, good stealth is a pretty darn good multiplier for a fighter's other abilities: agility and ECM. It's already hard to hit a dodging fighter with good ECM; add stealth to it, and it makes things even harder. The F-22 does have IR signature reduction features, though I'm not aware how effective they are.

Multi-static radar exists already, but the key is to have datalink, positioning system, and software designed to use it. I suspect with the current level of technology, multi-static radar will not give fire-control resolution.

The F-22 has enough advantages that it is very easy to exploit the combination of them to gain an edge. Even if your fighter's big radar can see it, your missile's little radar has to see it for it to matter. Without that, you are forced to fight WVR, and the F-22 has supercruise to keep you at arm's length. I think the best bet is defeating the F-22's own weapons, i.e. the AIM-120, or paying the Russians big bucks for plasma stealth. All in all, I think the report is BS, but Rand's job is to point out possibilities and scare up $$$