@hkbc:
Although your assessment about China's capability to control her exclusive economic zone (coastal waters up to 200 miles) is certainly correct, your assumptions of Japan's intentions and capabilities in comparison with China's seem to be too simplistic. At least of two important factors you have been somewhat oblivious:
1. Japan is
not generally technologically superior over China
especially regarding military technology.
Some examples:
a.
Japan cannot currently produce SSN and SSBN as China with her quite modern type 093 and type 094 indeed demonstrates, of course Japan would be able to produce similar subs in the next decade if a proper political decision would be taken timely but these subs would be not as advanced as the SSN/SSBN's PLAN will be able to field (type 095/096) during that timeframe. (as long as a highly unlikely substantial US tech transfer does not occur!
)
b. Although Japan is able to produce nuclear weapons on short notice it is safe to assume that the new japanese warheads will not be as reliable (no ´real´ testing!), as miniaturized and specialized than their chinese counterparts. Especially the development of an enhanced radiation warhead (neutron weapon) would constitute a real challenge for japanese scientists but China mastered that certainly not trivial technology already back in the 80's (1988).
c.
China currently deploys, produces and develops a plethora of dozens of modern ballistic and cruise missile types. Japan would have to go a long ´extra mile´for coming even close to that level and additionally the severe obstacles of acquiring that kind of tech (
re: non proliferation regimes like MTCR) on the market are severely complicating such an attempt.
d. A wide range of chinese conventional heavy weapons is already superior to their respective japanese types; just compare ZTZ 99 to Type 90 MBT's or the new PLZ05 SPA to japanese M 109 derivatives.
2.
Japan is undoubtedly constrained by her pacifist constitution but the limits imposed by the precarious fiscal situation of the japanese state are much more tangible. Japan is currently indebted by 170% of her GDP (and every year the deficit is growing!) and the demographic pressure of her greying population is mounting up creating additional social and medical care costs.
After all the talk of Koizumi and Abe about expanding the military budget the facts are simply sobering:
the new JSDF budget of FY 2007/08 is the fifth consecutive (albeit small) reduction! Compare that with an increase of around 50% (to 30 bn$ in'89) during the 80's and you are learning that
Nakasone Yasuhiro was a man of deeds and not of words (but he certainly had also a humming economy at hand providing him with the necessary ample funds). Correspondingly all announcements of the current japanese leadership of Abe Shinzo regarding grandiose rearmament plans have to be taken with a grain of salt.
