Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

AndrewS said:

You've got 72551 as the total infected, circa March 24.

The Lancet paper estimated 75815 as of Jan 25.
I can believe that to be the case, from what we've seen in the non-Hubei cases .

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But given the virus symptoms are so mild in the majority of people, and so similar to the common cold or flu, It probably will be impossible to wipe out entirely. The death rates look comparable to a seasonal flu that happens every year as well.

So 1-2 years time, once there is a vaccine, it'll just be one more strain of "seasonal flu" to watch out for.

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Normal flu doesn't cause pneumonia, only with bacterial over infection, and that is easy to cure.

With this as it looks like even the mild cases developing undiagnosed viral pneumonia.

The full lung capacity vs. resting can be somewhere between *3-10 , so even if big part of lung doesn't work the infected doesn't recognise the pneumonia.

adiru said:

Not good news. Guys over at PeakOil energy forums saying this is essentially the end of China, CCP and Xi

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The most ridiculous claim of the millennium. China would be a dead man walking; if was still walking. It is shutdown, and the rest of the world wants nothing to do with it. As this virus reemerges time and time again, it never will again. This virus can be contracted over and over again. China can now be erased from the map. "And there there be dragons".

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A full phase 2 will put an end to all those kind of hate China talk and full blown hatred of the rise of China. And their heartless mocking of China.
And their cheering of the sickness of tens of thousands of Chinese and deaths of thousands of Chinese in order to see China down. As if that will only be within the borders of China

And we will see the Freedom and Democracy of the the West and USA handling that full blown crisis within their countries. And see if they can handle that better with their "freedom of speech and press and Democracy"


What we all witnessing now is the first phase. The starting point of 2019 new corona virus in Wuhan and China.
And we seen the response made in quarantining and incredible speed of organising and building hospitals and facilities in holding and treatment.
And may in time, hold and halt this virus totally in China.
We also see the mocking and laughters and demonising of China's efforts , despicable cartoons in guise of free speech to laugh and the taking advantage of this to further rub the face of China in the mud.

BUT

The next phase is inevitable. Not that I wish for that to happen, but happen that will be.

That virus is now already in many countries and with the fore warnings given by China. Despit the warnings, are those countries capable and able and have the dedicated expertise shown by China in containing and holding and treating this virus? Can USA, or any other country , build hospitals from bare fields and equipt that in a matter of days?

Perhaps so, but sadly, not to the extent demonstrated by China.

In the days and weeks to come, that virus will be spreading and spreading in USA, in Denmark, in Europe , in Africa , India and Australia.
Chinese and China and all decent folks will sorrow and pray for them and help them best they can in USA, Denmark and others .
And maybe, hopefully, the insults and savage mockery they shown to China will stop as they all desperately trying not to be sick and die themselves.

Chinese and China and all decent folks will not be mocking and laughing and taking advantage or insulting them the way USA, Denmark and others had done and still doing to China in the initial crisis.


We will wait , and see.

Phase 2 is just starting.

I think last week I saw claims Comrade Xi was nowhere to be seen, so:

Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, wears a protective face mask during an appearance in Beijing on Monday. Credit: Pang Xinglei/Xinhua/AP

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1 hr 23 min ago
China's president stresses importance of preventing layoffs amid coronavirus

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Wow it really takes so little to set you guys off eh? A couple of post off a extreme left/right site in the US and all of a sudden its fire and brimstone.
It is what it is, meaningless posts from anonymous people who has way to much time and an axe to grind.
And really it actually takes some effort to look up these fringe forums. This sort of pettiness and reaction is precisely why people has a negative perception regarding Chinese maturity at times.
It is like you guys are actively looking for such things to get upset.

More on Phase 2

Remember it was just one gentleman from Hongkong that started this chain reaction.

From Diamond Princess, with 3711 on board and quarantine in Yokohama.

"Another 65 people aboard the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship moored off Japan have been diagnosed with novel coronavirus, the health ministry said Monday, bringing the total number of known infections to 135."

"Test results from 103 people have now come out and 65 of them are confirmed positive for the new coronavirus," the ministry said in a statement.

How many more when tests done and results in on the rest of the 3711 remaining crew and passengers ?



And we will get to see with "Full freedom of speech and press and glorious democratic values and democracy" will make all those sickness and death go away. Or the virus will spread and spread irregardless of free press and free speech and the full democratic values and Western Freedom so cherished by all those haters of China.

AndrewS said:

You've got 72551 as the total infected, circa March 24.

The Lancet paper estimated 75815 as of Jan 25.
I can believe that to be the case, from what we've seen in the non-Hubei cases .

---

But given the virus symptoms are so mild in the majority of people, and so similar to the common cold or flu, It probably will be impossible to wipe out entirely. The death rates look comparable to a seasonal flu that happens every year as well.

So 1-2 years time, once there is a vaccine, it'll just be one more strain of "seasonal flu" to watch out for.

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the model you wanted (Today at 8:09 AM) predicts for the coming days
43799 tomorrow (Feb 11)
46571 Feb12
49156 Feb13
51549 Feb14
etc.

Jura said:

the model you wanted (Today at 8:09 AM) predicts for the coming days
43799 tomorrow (Feb 11)
46571 Feb12
49156 Feb13
51549 Feb14
etc.

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didnt you predict peak of 22000 merely a week ago? last night you said it wouldnt surpass 50000....

adiru said:

didnt you predict peak of 22000 merely a week ago?

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yes honey I conceded I had been wrong Tuesday at 7:48 AM

Jura said:

Saturday at 8:22 PM
it's already time to say it's going to be many times more on February 13 (I don't say it only to admit my estimate was embarrassingly low, I say it mainly because there may be one-thousand dead :-(

what's happened Saturday at 8:22 PM
I used something simple to guess the next time-points, and solved for an inflection point (which was there, I mean in my wrong data)

(for the rest
Modelling the spreading rate of controlled communicable epidemics through an entropy-based thermodynamic model

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),

but an inflection hasn't been reached even now (February 4)!

now noticed an almost perfect fit:

number of confirmed cases = 10^(-0.00325*DAY^2+0.17919*DAY+2.20562) for DAY from Jan 29 until today (February 4)

it's just an observation, but if this trend holds, it'll be 23878 tomorrow (February 5)

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adiru said:

last night you said it wouldnt surpass 50000....

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that's what I still believe I mean Yesterday at 6:45 PM

Josh Luo said:

I respect your analysis, but I still think that had the info been released earlier, and the Government responds by shutting down the city earlier, less people in other parts of the country would have been infected. Since Dr. Li and his colleagues realized that the new virus is highly contagious, the Wuhan Municipal Government could have alarmed the public earlier. Yes, it would have created a panic inside Wuhan, but it would be better than having the virus spreading throughout the country and sicken nearly every single province. The Wuhan Municipal Government's mistake was that it put way too much emphasis on the goal Stability Maintenance and such emphasis caused the government to put little emphasis on taking the incoming crisis head-on until it was too late. Still, I think the Central Government has responded way more effectively this time than in 2003.

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I agree with Wuhan government/police , an ophthalmologist in this case can't raise the Ncov-2019 virus outbreak warning, if he was a pulmonologist or public health expert or contagious disease expert then Wuhan government should listen to him.
What he knew most was about eye, and eye was not the most important organ involved in this outbreak. ( yes maybe you can get infected through eye, but it is a very small portion in this outbreak ).
So every expert in medical should have his duty and responsibility.
I don't know about his colleagues' expert

manqiangrexue said:

So much oral diarrhea... "It's definitely not the right time to talk about X and I don't wanna say anything about it, but let me just say this about X..."

"... and then add a bunch of meaningless crap that's technically on topic to make it look like I wasn't just here to talk about X."

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very impressive, even though I didn't mention you by name or quote any of your posts or even give any hints you were still able to realize you are the "clueless member" that I talked about, frankly I couldn't care less if you have no idea what countries I support & what countries I oppose, in any case Chinese people have good IQ but that is just the average, some of the Chinese people's own IQ increases it while the IQ of other Chinese brings it down, I believe you are part of the latter.