Hong-Kong Protests

Skywatcher

Captain
the NYT described events immediately preceding the shooting as:

"In the video, the protester who was shot is first seen joining a black-clad mob of people who chase a riot officer and tackle him to the ground. They kick him and beat him with what appear to be metal pipes.

At one point, the protester approaches a second police officer who is standing nearby with a handgun drawn."

(the story goes on as "Just after the protester hits the officer with the pipe, the officer fires at the man at point-blank range.")
:
National Day Demonstrations in Hong Kong Turn Violent, as Police Shoot Protester
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Looks like a Darwin Award nomination right there.
 
It doesn't have to end. As long as it doesn't reach any of the strategic red lines I've stated a while ago, it is not necessarily a bad thing. You have to look at the bigger picture. The West led by the US has long treated any so-called "challenger" civilizations with great suspicion. There are no way for a rising China to evade the scorn and suspicion of the US led West. Especially now, even if China stopped growing, it will still no be enough. For them, they want to see China NEVER again have the possibility of challenging them, ever. Just like how they treated the Russians, after the fall of USSR.

This is why the US led West will pour energy and resources into containing and sabotaging China. Containment alone is extremely difficult in the long run (we can discuss why in another thread). This is why they will put resources into sabotage actions. This is a given, not an if.

Again, the above means that a lot of Western resources WILL BE put into sabotaging China's stability. Since containment alone is not going to work in the long run. In any sabotage mission, Hong Kong would be a low hanging fruit, both for terrorism and for "Occupy"-type of unrest.

Suppose China act immediately on Hong Kong, get the whole thing over and fight the necessary diplomatic battle with the US led West, and get this whole thing over fast. And Hong Kong unrest is put down, and tranquility restored. So what? Does this really cure the root cause of why such an unrest will happened in the first place? IT WILL NOT. Because that which fuels it, is the endeavor by the US led West to carry out sabotage mission to bring instability within China. If such endeavors/intentions do not die, there will always be sabotage to spark unrest. HK is just the low hanging fruit. If even the low hanging fruit become difficult for the US led West to initiate an unrest, what do you think will happened? Do you think they will simply give up? NO, the US led West does NOT give up on such things. In fact, if they faces obvious obstacles, they will pause, rethink, and improve their games. So that the next sabotage mission will be more intense, more effective and more radical. This is not in the interest of China.

This is why I think the best scenario is for Hong Kong unrest is to go on like this, as long as it doesn't cross the red lines. This will become a draining pit for the sabotage mission of US led West. The game of draining pit is difficult, it has to take "the middle route". This means that it has to be sufficiently rewarding to draw the other side in. This is why I think the HK government is correct to show weakness against the protesters. This will draw the US in.

I believe what you are trying to describe is commonly called a war of attrition. Your supposed strategic level ideas of Hong Kong serving as a long term battlefield and sacrificial lamb is at best an incomplete train of thought and miscalculation if not a callous disregard for a part of China that unnecessarily compromises Chinese assets, reputation, and strategy. Rather, this unrest born of accumulated historical baggage, local incompetence, and foreign sabotage is an opportunity for Hong Kong to proactively reinvent and reorient itself as a more integral part of China, it is also an opportunity for China to proactively assist Hong Kong with the above as well as monitor how others develop soft power and its many uses, including for hybrid warfare that can translate into hard warfare, and improve development and use of its own soft power.
 
HK police just shot an 18-year-old with live rounds.

This is beyond outrageous; the public will certainly tone up their resentment against the CCP and their military-backed armed apparatus.
Once again, history precedents tend to suggest that single incidents like this one can quickly cartwheel into a major upheaval among the protesters, who up until now have been relatively peaceful in their activities.

Much appreciate the HK police's great restraint for only resorting to live ammo in critical moments like when this 18yo thug and his gang of rioters with lethal melee weapons were assaulting an outnumbered policeman on the ground. This was just one of many violent incidents instigated by such rioting "protesters" assaulting and putting the lives of outnumbered police or other civilians, as well as themselves, in jeopardy. Thank you @SinoSoldier for your outrageous attempt at misinformation confirming your dubious character and hateful prejudice.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
I believe what you are trying to describe is commonly called a war of attrition. Your supposed strategic level ideas of Hong Kong serving as a long term battlefield and sacrificial lamb is at best an incomplete train of thought and miscalculation if not a callous disregard for a part of China that unnecessarily compromises Chinese assets, reputation, and strategy. Rather, this unrest born of accumulated historical baggage, local incompetence, and foreign sabotage is an opportunity for Hong Kong to proactively reinvent and reorient itself as a more integral part of China, it is also an opportunity for China to proactively assist Hong Kong with the above as well as monitor how others develop soft power and its many uses, including for hybrid warfare that can translate into hard warfare, and improve development and use of its own soft power.

I stayed away from that term "attrition warfare" because it's a rigid term. Both side are not intentionally trying to wear each other down. Did the US and Taliban enter a war of attrition to wear each other down? No. the world is always evolving. It benefits us to not let ourselves get into the habit of recycling old ideas. Try to use your own eyes to look at the world, instead of grabbing on to old ideas. Be creative and original.

Like I said, the US-led West will not simply give up instigating internal unrest in China, because they are not confident about the success of containment strategy against China. As long as the US-led West still feels animosity and fear against China, this will not stop. This is regardless of whether they have success in instigating Hong Kong or not. It's not like they will stop at Hong Kong, just because they've encountered a defeat. This is why it is better to let them have a bit of success here, as long as nothing strategic happens.

I don't use the term "attrition warfare" precisely because of this. It is NOT to wear them down, because I don't think the West is stupid enough to not realize that they are wore down. My understanding is that it is in China's interest that the West falsely believe that their current strategy is working, therefore they will continue their current strategy instead of radically upgrading their strategy to be more vicious and violent.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Much appreciate the HK police's great restraint for only resorting to live ammo in critical moments like when this 18yo thug and his gang of rioters with lethal melee weapons were assaulting an outnumbered policeman on the ground. This was just one of many violent incidents instigated by such rioting "protesters" assaulting and putting the lives of outnumbered police or other civilians, as well as themselves, in jeopardy. Thank you @SinoSoldier for your outrageous attempt at misinformation confirming your dubious character and hateful prejudice.

Its unbelievable that a member here seem to live in a parallel universe. Did I read right? "peacefull protest"!?

Gee, talk about spining and creative narratives. I am surprise that he's not trying to tell us the police should fight rioter with message of love and peace........ just like the police force in the USA who never ever pulled out a gun on any of their people!
 
I stayed away from that term "attrition warfare" because it's a rigid term. Both side are not intentionally trying to wear each other down. Did the US and Taliban enter a war of attrition to wear each other down? No. the world is always evolving. It benefits us to not let ourselves get into the habit of recycling old ideas. Try to use your own eyes to look at the world, instead of grabbing on to old ideas. Be creative and original.

Like I said, the US-led West will not simply give up instigating internal unrest in China, because they are not confident about the success of containment strategy against China. As long as the US-led West still feels animosity and fear against China, this will not stop. This is regardless of whether they have success in instigating Hong Kong or not. It's not like they will stop at Hong Kong, just because they've encountered a defeat. This is why it is better to let them have a bit of success here, as long as nothing strategic happens.

I don't use the term "attrition warfare" precisely because of this. It is NOT to wear them down, because I don't think the West is stupid enough to not realize that they are wore down. My understanding is that it is in China's interest that the West falsely believe that their current strategy is working, therefore they will continue their current strategy instead of radically upgrading their strategy to be more vicious and violent.

You are underestimating the perceptiveness of hostile foreign powers as to whether they realize this strategy is working or not, just because they are particularly cost conscious for their own reasons right now doesn't mean they are unwilling to escalate regardless of whether this strategy works or not. As others already pointed out your strategy of China compartmentalizing/sacrificing HK can easily lead to enough local disillusionment or dysfunction in HK. This can lead to it becoming a long term base for foreign sabotage into the rest of China, a role HK had always played to varying degrees over time. This isn't even accounting for the significant if likely limited disruptions to China''s plans for international finance if HK is sufficiently compromised.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
I believe what you are trying to describe is commonly called a war of attrition. Your supposed strategic level ideas of Hong Kong serving as a long term battlefield and sacrificial lamb is at best an incomplete train of thought and miscalculation if not a callous disregard for a part of China that unnecessarily compromises Chinese assets, reputation, and strategy. Rather, this unrest born of accumulated historical baggage, local incompetence, and foreign sabotage is an opportunity for Hong Kong to proactively reinvent and reorient itself as a more integral part of China, it is also an opportunity for China to proactively assist Hong Kong with the above as well as monitor how others develop soft power and its many uses, including for hybrid warfare that can translate into hard warfare, and improve development and use of its own soft power.

I say this again, it doesn't matter what this unrest is born out of. We are not doctors and psychiatrists, China is not a doctor and psychiatrist that has the duty to fix Hong Kong's problems. That's their own problem. China's duty is to safeguard the strategic interest of the Chinese nation. If China get boggled down to micromanage every little thing that's wrong with Hong Kong, it will actually become a strategic trap for China. The 1C2S system is as much a system for HKers' to get to maintain their "way-of-life", as it is a safeguard to guarantee that whatever element that might harm China is contained within the borders of Hong Kong.

As for “assets, reputation and strategy”, again, given the greater picture of civilizational contest between China and the West, the loss of asset is miniscule at most. As for reputation, reputation don't mean much in today's world, because the world populace has already awaken to the US media industrial complex. Even the POTUS are calling the MSM of his own empire "fake news". This is quite evident. One important example is the whole "Uighur Camp" issue that the western MSM tried very hard to rouse up in the last year or so. However, the result of that is that the majority of Muslim nations and population are skeptical and apathetic. So much so that the US are formally complaining in the UN that Muslims are hypocritical on this matter.

As for strategy, it really depends on how you perceive what Chinese strategy is. This is up to your own view. You think China's strategy is hurting greatly. I don't think so.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
That figures, I have seen Msm do that on numerious occasions.

Yes, and another trick of the MSM is to LEAD the narratives of the viewrs, meaning they try to guide public opinons.

I just watched three "news program" on the Hong Kong situation.

1/ BBC newnight. They have two guest on the program. One English, and one "Chinese". Naturally, I was expecting two different views on the HK riots.

But no! How stupid am I? Both guess speakers were singing the same hymn sheet! How does leave the viwers? And where is the supposed British even handiness?

2/ on CNN, Cyril Vanier got on high horse in his answer to the guess speaker who said the police was basically protecting themselves.

Hie replied "yes the police are supposed to protect yhe people, not trying to kill them!"

Lol, and ythis come from a country where more people are shot and killed by police than anywhere else in the world!

I wonder would he be saying that next time a USA Police shoot someone. And knowing it is in the USA, we wouldn't have to wait long!

3/ later in the same program, they had that Mao woman on as guess speaker. BUT no counter, figures!

And the questions is so leading and no challenge was ever made from her reply.
I mean this is a law maker, she is supposed to uphold the law! She is supposed to condenm law breakers, but instead she is allowed to come on to tell the world that the HK police is bad, and the rioters is peaceful!

Gee with bias MSM like these, is it any wonder that some members here have this highly bias view of Hong Kong?!
 
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