Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

Inst said:

You're ignoring the fact that all of these costs are paid in Russian Rubles, not USD or EUR. The R&D work was done in Rubles, the manufacturing work was done in Rubles, and Russian raw materials were bought in Rubles.

It turns out Obama's bright idea of pressuring the Russians was a terrible mistake from that perspective.

Click to expand...

The reason newer generation planes are getting more and more expensive is because the cost component is increasingly dominated by technology and electronics. Cost of electronics in particular are driven by global pricing and you get what you pay for in terms of quality. There is no local competitive advantage just because you are paying in rubles. In fact the effect is the other way around because as rubles depreciate against the major currencies, local cost is effectively going up. A 5th generation plane is dominated by technology and electronics and the idea of a $50 million pricing is devoid of reality. There are even talks of pricing the JF-17 Block 3 at that kind of level.

IMO, the idea of exporting the SU-57E is just Russian propaganda and the marketing spin will for go on at least for another 5 years. I don't think the Russian even have a finished product that they can export, or able to produce in a volume that can be competitively priced. .

Russia has fabs, and I presume that like the Chinese, Russian military chips aren't made by IBM. China developed a MIPS infrastructure that's commercially underperforming just so they could manufacture their own electronic controls.

The idea that Russia can't produce military gear without foreign imports is ridiculous, when you consider Russia's size and its recent autarky. Do you really think there's Pentiums in either T-14s or J-20s?

The Chinese make chips for export the Americans make chips for export that keeps the prices of the military grade chips down.
The Russians are making proprietary chips for their military equipment that means a higher priced chip to sustain the overhead and R&D.

Brumby said:

IMO, the idea of exporting the SU-57E is just Russian propaganda and the marketing spin will for go on at least for another 5 years. I don't think the Russian even have a finished product that they can export, or able to produce in a volume that can be competitively priced. .

Click to expand...

Russia doesn't have finished product this is exactly why Russia is seeking help from China to partially fund the fighter jet as India withdrawn from the project. Russia has cancelled many projects due to lack of funds.

I believe China should take the opportunity gain some knowledge and IP transfer through the Su-57 project. China makes things better and they have proven track record that when China gets their hands on Russian Technology they make it better. Look at all the MiG china improved and delivered to PLAAF and Foriegn customers.

I believe few billion dollars is peanut for China. Why not get the Technology and embed on J-31, sell J-31 to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Nigeria. Even Iraq and Saudi would be interested. Look Chinese monopoly on drone market of Asia and Middle East. China can replicate the same on J-31.

It's not easy to just embed Su-57 tech into J-31. A few billion is a huge sum of money for a one off military purchase. It takes funding away from domestic projects and procurement. That said, it's certainly something that's worth getting if it can be put to good use and if there are worthwhile things to learn. I doubt Russians will sell equally capable export versions and I doubt China will get in on this until it is proven to be matured and a thoroughly polished product like Su-35 is. Even that deal took a while longer than expected, at least well after the product was finalised. So the earliest we will see such a deal become realised is probably 10 years from now. By then, it may not even be worth it because all the available "spare" change will be put towards UCAVs and 6th gen project/s.

Not to mention this is based on the assumption that SU57's avionics are in some way easier to export or superior to those for J31.
It also assumes that the Russian would allow There fighters tech to be exported in a Chinese airframe.

The only way Su57E becomes viable is export. Otherwise it's the same trap as F22, F2 fell into very high price for small numbers.
Allowing the Chinese makers to use it to make it's competing fighter is loaning the knife to the man who slits your own throat.

Russia has the Su-57E at a reasonably high maturity; it was deployed to a combat zone for christ's sake. The problem seems to be more that they don't have the funding to start up serial production on the aircraft.

For the Chinese, the Su-57E is mainly threatening the J-31, but let's face it, what is the J-31? It's an F-35 knock-off that lacks the charisma of the J-20 or F-35. There is little point in protecting the J-31 project over the Su-57E when the PLAAF has made clear that the PLAAF doesn't want the J-31, and that the only organization interested in it would be the PLANAF.

Inst said:

Russia has the Su-57E at a reasonably high maturity; it was deployed to a combat zone for christ's sake. The problem seems to be more that they don't have the funding to start up serial production on the aircraft.

For the Chinese, the Su-57E is mainly threatening the J-31, but let's face it, what is the J-31? It's an F-35 knock-off that lacks the charisma of the J-20 or F-35. There is little point in protecting the J-31 project over the Su-57E when the PLAAF has made clear that the PLAAF doesn't want the J-31, and that the only organization interested in it would be the PLANAF.

Click to expand...

But is it that way? The latest reports we heard are assuming the PLAAF is indeed interested and even more it might get it sooner than the Navy ... and on top, You and some others are still in believe the Su-57 is ready!

Quite to the contrary - at least via Piotr Butowski when we last time discussed, he is more than convinced - it is not ready, not even close to and this all it hampered by the lack of founds, therefore all these attempt to market it to the ME, to Turkey - a country that currently does all to divide NATO and promote its own ideas - and now even China.
And the Syrian campaign was not an operational one but a PR stunt, nothing more.

Therefore this lame attempt to promote an as yet unfinished product as something that might be better than the J-20 only not to admit, that the Chinese surpassed the Russians with their own 5th generation project. It would be as if UAC would promote their MS-21 to Western airliners in order to replace their A.320 neo.

I do not want to comment or discuss on which one is better on paper, but at least the J-20 is in service and the Su-57 not.

So I really cannot understand all this fuss and hype since it is in no way comparable to the once similar heated discussion on the Su-35. This type was ready, the Su-57 is not and I find it almost funny that some here rate this proposal already as a nearly done deal.

Inst said:

Russia has the Su-57E at a reasonably high maturity; it was deployed to a combat zone for christ's sake.

Click to expand...

They parked it on a tarmac in a safe zone for 48 hours. It was a publicity stunt not a field deployment.

I don’t see it as a competitor for the J-20. And I don’t think that’s what Russia is trying to market it as either.

It’s far from a done deal, but the chance of purchase is not non existent. Especially if the price is amicable.

Major allies usually share development to some degree. There has been plenty of signs of strengthening alliance between China and Russia. In the past, it was not politically correct to move too close to Russia, but now, China and the west is in open struggle. China and Russia agreed to make a common next generation lift helicopter.