China Flanker Thread II

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Deino

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Great @Deino. How would you differentiate between a real PL-15 or a dummy from the photo ?

Difficult to say and probably impossible. Normally training rounds are blue and life ones are white, but if they want to fool us by using a perfect replica and paint it white, at least I could not differentiate between both.
 

Hyperwarp

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Great @Deino. How would you differentiate between a real PL-15 or a dummy from the photo ?

Training missile (operational seeker but no warhead or propellant) - Blue (ish)
Dummies (at least for some like PL-8) - Red (Grey and orange also possible)
Test missiles - White with black stripes

The missile in the J-11B looks like an operational one. From the fins to the nozzle, the details are very good. Dummies don't require such attention to details. Compare the PL-15 on the J-11B with dummy PL-15 in the J-20 #2002# -
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Totoro

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But we still don't know if the first two are pure J16 units or mixed type units. We don't know how many J16s are there in those first two.
And we don't know how many J16s are there in tactics and development units. Probably not many more than a dozen, though?
 

Deino

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Probably there are close to 100 J16 currently in Service.

I wouldn't be surprised if even a few more... latest confirmed c/n is J-16 0412 (??) and Block 3 had at least 28 aircraft (highest number known is 0328) and if you consider that production is always ahead to confirmed deliveries.

Block 04 was first confirmed in September, so its now almost six months later.

J-16 cn. 0412 - 201903+.jpg
 

Totoro

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First blocks may have fewer airframes though. I wouldn't be surprised if first block was just a pre-serial test run of something like 8 to 12 airframes. And then the second block is usually still a ramp up, most projects don't jump high numbers right away, so it could be something in between of first and third block.

In that light, it's still not a crazy idea that there are something like 10+20+30+25-ish produced so far, with the 4th block possibly still ongoing. I'd still expect at least 80 airframes delivered to Chinese air forces, though.
 
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