Brother of Ling Jihua Reveals China's nuclear launch code and top secrets to US

plawolf

Lieutenant General
You haven't said anything that's different what I said. And it would've been best on the US's part not to give any hints that the brother was in contact with them. The Chinese would had to have been wondering if it was a bluff. But since the leak to the media gave specifics, the Chinese authorities would know where to concentrate first instead of the just going through everything they think Ling Jihua had possible access.

Well, your sequence of events doesn't really work.

In order to try and blackmail the Chinese government, the brothers cannot pass on the secrets to the US, that's like shooting the hostage in the head. You have nothing to bargain with after that.

The US only came into the picture sometime between Jihua's son's car crash and when he was arrested, at which point the game changed for Wechang from trying to secure his brother to self preservation.

It is during this period when the brothers first revealed that they had stolen secrets till the defection and/or arrest that is most critical for Chinese counter-intelligence to limit any potential damage.

It would also be illogical and downright foolish to base your counter-intelligence operation on leaks. What guarantees do you have that the US would leak precisely what files they actually have? Absolutely none. In fact, it is almost a sure thing that the US would try to use leaks to trick or bait you.

You don't mess around with things like that, when in doubt, you have to go with the worst case scenario, which is to assume that everything that was or could have been accessed by Ling Jihua's office as compromised.

But because it was leaked to media at all, the US showed its hand that they got nothing. But then they wouldn't care hence why all the celebrating that they got a fake win against China.

That's dangerous naive to think American intelligence is so incompetent and lacking in basic trade craft. They should not be leaking anything that betrays active operations and/or viable vulnerabilities and sources.

The most logical position to take isn't that US intelligence is so silly as to make such an elementary error and waste a golden intelligence opportunity because they cannot help by gloat bad boast publicly.

If it was US intelligence who first leaked this (and thus far I have not seen any conclusive evidence to show this), then the most logical position to take is that they are o only doing so because a) the Chinese know they have those secrets, and/or b) there is no more operational advantage to be had from keeping the fact that they have those files a secret.

Now on Ling Jinhua's part...He would be extra stupid if he gave specifics to what he took because China can close the doors before the time his brother was suppose to go hand everything to the US. Usually when you extort people, the extortionist is hidden in a safe place out of the hands of the people that are being extorted. He was never going to be getting away with this crime. So it was pure stupidity or it was out of spite knowing he was never going to get away with it.

How do you extort without showing that you have something important enough to threaten the target with?

To try to blackmail at all would involve the brothers revealing that they had secrets, at which point which secrets they did take becomes a rather academic question, since the only prudent thing to do in such a situation is to assume that everything that could have been compromised had been compromised, as explained above.

As for the logic behind the move. Well I agree it was a bone head idea that was never ever going to work, so I think it was more an act of desperation rather than some well-thought out plan.

I also think there is a lot of details behind the scenes that have not yet been revealed, since the public narrative just doesn't make much sense.

In my view, the most likely sequence of events is as follows:
-Infamous car crash in 2012 killed Jihua's son was too public to cover up, and Jihua knew he was royally screwed, so he sets up contingency plan by stealing what he could before he was demoted and removed from the position where he had access to state secrets.
-Stolen secrets are passed to brother, who disappears, as investigation into Jihua gets underway
-When it became obvious charges would be brought, the blackmail was made
-China strings brothers along as they try to limit the damage while trying to find Wechang to recover the stolen documents
-Either some deadline set by the brothers lapsed, and/or Chinese agents got close but not close enough, spooking Wechang into defecting, and later Jihua is arrested and formally charged.
-Race is on, with the Chinese plugging vulnerabilities as fast as they can, while the Americans probe and try to exploit any and all openings they can before they are closed down by the Chinese.
-Events run their course, China closes all vulnerabilities and put into action measures to make all information in stolen documents useless, America determines they have gained all the advantages they could from the information and a leak is made to exploit the PR advantage of this coup.

It's all speculation on the details but the one undeniable fact is the story was leaked to the media and says a lot of the value of the information handed over. It could've been only one document out of all of them that was important and you don't let any of it go public. Was it a rogue idiot in the US government that let the information out? That's treason in itself. That would be big news especially if the people who claim this was a huge win for the US as to the importance of the information. Yet we hear nothing of anyone arrested in the news. The conclusion is all of it was worthless or was easily made worthless information and the US got nothing from them. Yeah if they spent a lot of time and money vetting the information to then find out it was all worthless, I imagine some people in the US government would be quite perturbed and would be open to salvage a big waste of time by putting a story out in the public that they got a big win in the espionage game to embarrass China just for public morale.

As I have already explained above, that's not necessarily true at all.

As with all sensitive documents, the information they contain is only valuable for a limited length of time. After which point, they either naturally expire, or are superseded by regular scheduled code, hardware and procedural changes designed specifically to safeguard against possible undetected security breaches.

The useful lifespan of a secret document is drastically shortened if it was known or suspected that they might have been compromised.

The key question is one of timeline. We don't know when China first knew of the theft and when Wechang first handed them over to the US.

The public dates provide good ball park upper limits, but are not necessarily representative of reality.

For example, Wechang might have ran to US intelligence in 2013 or earlier, and Chinese intelligence did not find out about it until recently, when Jihua was finally formally charged and arrested. So we know that China might have had a maximum window of more than 2 years to address the leak, but the actual time they had before the US started actively exploiting those secrets could have been much shorter.

Whenever something like this happens, standard procedures would be to assume everything that could have been compromised had been, and work your way down, with the most important things first. It would also be expected that Chinese intelligence would also be looking at how to turn this disadvantage on its head and lay some traps.

For example, they could make it seem that they have overlooked some vulnerabilities, while in fact setting up traps to feed the US bogus info etc.

So things like nuclear launch codes, key passcode, C&C channels and procedures etc would have been changed and looked at first.

If the claims that Zhongnanhai came under sustained cyber attack is true, then that suggests either the US got the documents fairly early in the timeline, or it was all a diversionary tactic, designed to suck in Chinese counter-intelligence resources to slow down the pace they were making the leaked documents useless.

Although if the attacks really were ongoing for months, it would suggest the latter to me, since if the US had the codes before Chinese intelligence knew to change them, they should have been able to penetrate without even being detected. A sustained, visible cyber dual is not the hallmark of someone who has gotten access codes to bypass all the security altogether.

On balance, I think the western reporting of headline items like nuclear launch codes and Zhongnanhai access codes are probably overly optimistic from the American prospective, since those would have been amongst the first and most easy things to change and make safe.

Similarly, I think it would be too optimist from the Chinese prospective to suggest that all the documents were totally worthless by the time the Americans got their hands on them.

I think some damage was done, but not nearly as bad as what the headlines suggests, although we will probably never know the true extent of it, which would almost certainly be a subject of intense study and debate within the Chinese and American intelligence communities themselves.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Well, your sequence of events doesn't really work.
...

I never said they handed the documents over to the US before the extortion. That's why I said it was stupid if they did. I never gave a sequence of events. No one knows except those involved. Like I said all the details from me or anyone else are speculative. I mentioned that if there was a leaker in the US government that was stupid for him or her not the US government. The one undeniable fact is the story made it to the public. Are you going to argue against that? Who would leak it to the public? It can only be someone in the government. Was it someone going rogue or was it okay with the higher ups? We haven't heard of someone being arrested for leaking without permission vital information dealing with national security. That would be a big deal. Since we haven't heard anything of the sort of someone being arrested for leaking vital national security secrets, it had to have been okayed with those higher up in authority. And the only reason why they would be okay with releasing that information to the public was because it all turned out to be worthless or made worthless by Chinese authorities when they were alerted to this.

They got the nuclear codes! Why would they would they make that public? Why would the US brag what they have if it was important useful intelligence? Have you seen the movie, The Imitation Game? They depict this very situation where the British broke Nazi Germany's Enigma code but they couldn't react directly to anything they learned because it might alert Germany that they broke it and then the Nazis would change everything and thus rendering their breakthrough useless. I never said the US government was stupid. That's why I'm concluding that the information handed over to the US by Ling Jihua's brother was worthless or made to be worthless by China. Undisciplined minds can't handle that because they want to believe there was important useful intelligence there that was damaging to China's national security... and they also want to brag publicly about it. It's just like those who believe that China's "advanced military technology" will fall apart from bad quality when used. And these people also see China as a threat. If China's military is going to fall apart, then why are they worried about a Chinese threat? That's called naïve! I seem to have to declare here that I'm not declaring the US government is stupid. Since details were release in this story to the public, the documents had to have been found to be useless therefore why they can expose this story to the public and spin a victory when there was none. It doesn't damage any operations, proceedings, or tactics used by the US because it was useless in the first place. If it were useful, they wouldn't expose it to the public, would they?
 

Ultra

Junior Member
What makes you think Chinese counter-intelligence did anything?
Do you work for the chinese counter-intelligence? :D
Do you have evidence they did anything?
All you have are your speculations.

Chinese mentality are often to "bury" the case. Like that high profile high speed train crash - what did the authority do? They bury the whole train instead of investigating the cause. LOL!

Its ostrich syndrome if you ask me. I am willing to bet Chinese just did some superficial "plugging the leak" so to speak and bury the case. And that will allow the Americans to exploit the structural weakness in the Chinese political/financial/military systems that was revealed in the leak to the maximum in the coming years.

The plethora of corrupt and corruptable official in China means this will happen again and again and again.

The leak gives American "targetable" intelligence - before American have vague idea of what China is capable of, where and what to look for; now, they have the map. Now American can concentrate to exploit every weaknesses to their maximum - you might think that by removing a few people at the top is enough, but what about ALL the people who are related to the leak? Does China even know what is in the leak? They can only guess. The news says they found "2700 photocopies" of document in Ling-Jihua's house. That may just be the tip of iceberg. Can China fix the problem that are structural in the leak? They may change a few nuclear codes, maybe even a few procedures, but they can't change the location where these DF-31 are based, those tunnel layouts that took 40 years to dig and a trillion dollar to build... do you think PLA is just going to abandon all their nuke base now because of the leak?
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
What makes you think Chinese counter-intelligence did anything?
Do you work for the chinese counter-intelligence? :D
Do you have evidence they did anything?
All you have are your speculations.

Chinese mentality are often to "bury" the case. Like that high profile high speed train crash - what did the authority do? They bury the whole train instead of investigating the cause. LOL!

Its ostrich syndrome if you ask me. I am willing to bet Chinese just did some superficial "plugging the leak" so to speak and bury the case. And that will allow the Americans to exploit the structural weakness in the Chinese political/financial/military systems that was revealed in the leak to the maximum in the coming years.

I think you are making too many incorrect assumptions without actually looking at the evidence. Use some common sense and stop trying to fit your preconceptions of China without evidence.

And I have no idea what you mean by "bury the whole train instead of investigating the cause" -- a simple online search will turn up the results of their investigation (such as here:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) and there were wide consequences of the crash not only politically but for the HSR's operation and development. Private and public state media all criticized the accident widely. And since then China has had one of the safest HSR systems on the world rivalling that of the world's safest airlines.

Your ostrich analogy is presumptuous, arrogant and founded on stereotypes rather than evidence, and it can be considered a false generalization due to ignorance at best, and malicious ignorance at worst. (Seriously, writing smileys and "LOL" due to a crash and a tragedy? Are you a psychopath?)
 

Ultra

Junior Member
It is like getting the manuals and every design documents to a computer network that company spent significant resource in.

If system adminstrator knows the network is compromised, he might change the passwords. But the underlying network is still compromised, and hackers could target every component, every layer and every subsystem to exploit the weaknesses. Unless the network is completely replaced, it is impossible to defend against.
 

solarz

Brigadier
It is like getting the manuals and every design documents to a computer network that company spent significant resource in.

If system adminstrator knows the network is compromised, he might change the passwords. But the underlying network is still compromised, and hackers could target every component, every layer and every subsystem to exploit the weaknesses. Unless the network is completely replaced, it is impossible to defend against.

Right, because networks rely on the obscurity of their setup for security. :rolleyes:
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
What makes you think Chinese counter-intelligence did anything?
Do you work for the chinese counter-intelligence? :D
Do you have evidence they did anything?
All you have are your speculations.

Chinese mentality are often to "bury" the case. Like that high profile high speed train crash - what did the authority do? They bury the whole train instead of investigating the cause. LOL!

Its ostrich syndrome if you ask me. I am willing to bet Chinese just did some superficial "plugging the leak" so to speak and bury the case. And that will allow the Americans to exploit the structural weakness in the Chinese political/financial/military systems that was revealed in the leak to the maximum in the coming years.

What makes you think they didn't? Wishful thinking? Like you're not biased with prejudice? You think it's easier that the Chinese are frozen from this embarrassment so that's why the US can openly say they have the nuclear codes? I love how everyone avoids the fact that this was made public. That's a very important point. If it's useful active information, why would you let the enemy know you have it? They have the nuclear codes! The Chinese are so embarrassed that they can't get it together to change them. That's called delusional if you believe that.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
I think you are making too many incorrect assumptions without actually looking at the evidence. Use some common sense and stop trying to fit your preconceptions of China without evidence.

And I have no idea what you mean by "bury the whole train instead of investigating the cause" -- a simple online search will turn up the results of their investigation (such as here:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) and there were wide consequences of the crash not only politically but for the HSR's operation and development. Private and public state media all criticized the accident widely. And since then China has had one of the safest HSR systems on the world rivalling that of the world's safest airlines.

Your ostrich analogy is presumptuous, arrogant and founded on stereotypes rather than evidence, and it can be considered a false generalization due to ignorance at best, and malicious ignorance at worst. (Seriously, writing smileys and "LOL" due to a crash and a tragedy? Are you a psychopath?)


Nope.

On Sunday, less than a day after two bullet trains collided in the south of the country, killing at least 43 people and injuring a further 210, eight mechanical diggers began to dig trenches to bury two twisted and broken train carriages.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


It is widely reported. Again, ostrich syndrome.

Also I know you are losing your argument when you can't rationally argue your case and had to result to personal attack. :)
 

Ultra

Junior Member
Right, because networks rely on the obscurity of their setup for security. :rolleyes:

What makes you think they didn't? Wishful thinking? Like you're not biased with prejudice? You think it's easier that the Chinese are frozen from this embarrassment so that's why the US can openly say they have the nuclear codes? I love how everyone avoids the fact that this was made public. That's a very important point. If it's useful active information, why would you let the enemy know you have it? They have the nuclear codes! The Chinese are so embarrassed that they can't get it together to change them. That's called delusional if you believe that.


I never say they won't change the code. Changing the code is easy. Like how a lot of system adminstrator telling users to change password once network intrusion is detected. But that's superficial - once the hacker has systemic level of exploits, no matter how you change the passwords it is all futile. To fix and combat that level of intrusion requires significant more resources that many system adminstrators are unwilling or incapable to provide.

And that is the problem China face right now.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Nope.

On Sunday, less than a day after two bullet trains collided in the south of the country, killing at least 43 people and injuring a further 210, eight mechanical diggers began to dig trenches to bury two twisted and broken train carriages.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


It is widely reported. Again, ostrich syndrome.

Also I know you are losing your argument when you can't rationally argue your case and had to result to personal attack. :)

I've never criticised your character, I criticised the way in which you are conducting your arguments and your application of logic.

And yes, initially excavators did bury the trains, which was stupid and provided bad optics. However they did then go and conduct an investigation and people were punished for it, and development and procedures were we're then subeequently changed.

You said they only put their head under the sand, and I've shown it was incorrect because despite the fact that officials initially made a stupid decision they did then rectify it with what I think can be considered to be a thorough response.
 
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